Time scales of DNAPL migration in sandy aquifers examined via numerical simulation

The time required for dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) to cease migrating following release to the subsurface is a valuable component of a site conceptual model. This study uses numerical simulation to investigate the migration of six different DNAPLs in sandy aquifers. The most influential parameters governing migration cessation time are the density and viscosity of the DNAPL and the mean hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer. Releases of between 1 and 40 drums of chlorinated solvent DNAPLs, characterized by relatively high density and low viscosity, require on the order of months to a few years to cease migrating in a heterogeneous medium sand aquifer having an average hydraulic conductivity of 7.4 x 10(-3) cm/s. In contrast to this, the release of 20 drums of coal tar (rho(D)= 1061 kg/m(3), micro(D)= 0.161 Pa.s) requires more than 100 years to cease migrating in the same aquifer. Altering the mean hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer results in a proportional change in cessation times. Parameters that exhibit relatively little influence on migration time scales are the DNAPL-water interfacial tension, release volume, source capillary pressure, mean aquifer porosity, and ambient ground water hydraulic gradient. This study also demonstrates that low-density DNAPLs (e.g., coal tar) give rise to greater amounts of lateral spreading and greater amounts of pooling on capillary barriers than high-density DNAPLs such as trichloroethylene or tetrachloroethylene.     

Late Miocene paleoenvironment of the Lambert Graben embayment, East Antarctica, evident from: Mollusc paleontology, sedimentology and geochemistry

The Upper Miocene (10.7–9.0 Ma) Battye Glacier Formation was deposited 250 km inland from the modern Amery Ice Shelf edge in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica. The composition of clay minerals distinguishes a Lower Member, which reflects regional erosion of Precambrian metamorphic basement, from an Upper Member, which records increased erosion of local Permian–Triassic Amery Group strata. The Upper Member was deposited in an ice-proximal environment akin to the modern fjords of East Greenland, with substantial diamict deposition resulting from melting iceberg discharge. The Lower Member was deposited in an ice-distal environment and included the accumulation of the fossil-bearing McLeod Beds. The McLeod Beds contain much siliceous biogenic sediment (≤ 15% opal), which is rare to absent in the predominantly hemipelagic mud of modern East Greenland fjords. The McLeod Beds also contain largely monospecific in situ Hiatella sp. mollusc assemblages suggestive of environmental stress, potentially caused by low salinity melt-water and a high input of terrigenous sediment, which excluded most other benthic taxa. Geochemical results from primary aragonite in Hiatella shells imply large freshwater input into the marine environment during mollusc growth, causing low δ¹⁸O, Na, Mg and high Fe values. The present study indicates that iceberg melt-water influence entering the marine environment was greater during the Late Miocene than today around Antarctica, and documents the paleoenvironment associated with a discrete period of ice margin retreat and marine incursion into the Lambert embayment.     

Analysis of Urban Atmosphere Plume Concentration Fluctuations

Concentration variability in the fast-response tracer dataset for continuous, near-surface, point source releases in the urban core from the Joint Urban 2003 field study is analyzed. Concentration variability for conditionally and unconditionally sampled time series is characterized by probability densities, concentration fluctuation intensity, skewness, and kurtosis. Significant day-night differences in plume dispersion are observed. Relative to daytime, nighttime plumes were more likely to have reduced concentration fluctuation intensities, higher normalized surface concentrations, suppressed vertical mixing, and a greater prevalence of Gaussian-like distributions rather than log-normal or mixed mode distributions. This was in spite of the similar stability and turbulence conditions in the urban core for day and night. The potential roles of flow meander and thermal stability in explaining these differences are examined. Probability densities of concentration are found to be a strong function of fluctuation intensity. There are few differences in probability densities between day and night when classified by fluctuation intensity. There are no appreciable differences between conditional and unconditional probability densities and only small differences between conditional and unconditional sampling statistics relative to the larger differences usually observed in more homogeneous settings. Fluctuation intensity, skewness, and kurtosis are higher for the daytime experiments, and closer to the source, but show little difference between conditional and unconditional results over most of their range of values. The log-normal distribution provides a better overall fit to a broader range of the dataset than the exponential or clipped-normal distributions.     

21st century climate change in the Middle East

This study examined the performance and future predictions for the Middle East produced by 18 global climate models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 emissions scenario the models predict an overall temperature increase of ~1.4 K by mid-century, increasing to almost 4 K by late-century for the Middle East. In terms of precipitation the southernmost portion of the domain experiences a small increase in precipitation due to the Northward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. The largest change however is a decrease in precipitation that occurs in an area covering the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey, Syria, Northern Iraq, Northeastern Iran and the Caucasus caused by a decrease in storm track activity over the Eastern Mediterranean. Other changes likely to impact the region include a decrease of over 170,000 km² in viable rainfed agriculture land by late-century, increases in the length of the dry season that reduces the length of time that the rangelands can be grazed, and changes in the timing of the maximum precipitation in Northern Iran that will impact the growing season, forcing changes in cropping strategy or even crop types.     

The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of Physical Processes

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) has developed the fourth generation of the Canadian Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). The new model includes substantially modified physical parameterizations compared to its predecessor. In particular, the treatment of clouds, cloud radiative effects, and precipitation has been modified. Aerosol direct and indirect effects are calculated based on a bulk aerosol scheme. Simulation results for present-day global climate are analyzed, with a focus on cloud radiative effects and precipitation. Good overall agreement is found between climatological mean short- and longwave cloud radiative effects and observations from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) experiment. An analysis of the responses of cloud radiative effects to variations in climate will be presented in a companion paper.

[Traduit par la rédaction] Le Centre canadien de la modélisation et de l'analyse climatique (CCmaC) a mis au point la quatrième génération du modèle canadien de circulation générale de l'atmosphère (CanAM4). Le nouveau modèle comprend des paramétrisations physiques passablement modifiées comparativement à son prédécesseur. En particulier, le traitement des nuages, des effets radiatifs des nuages et des précipitations a été modifié. Les effets directs et indirects des aérosols sont calculés à l'aide d'un schéma d'aérosols en bloc. Nous analysons des résultats de simulation pour le climat général du jour présent en mettant l'accent sur les effets radiatifs des nuages et les précipitations. Nous trouvons un bon accord général entre la moyenne climatologique des effets radiatifs des nuages pour les courtes et les grandes longueurs d'onde et les observations de l'expérience CERES (Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System). Une analyse de la réponse des effets radiatifs des nuages aux variations du climat sera présentée dans un article connexe.     

Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections

A fast simple climate modelling approach is developed for predicting and helping to understand general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We show that the simple model reproduces the GCM results accurately, for global mean surface air temperature change and global-mean heat uptake projections from 9 GCMs in the fifth coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). This implies that understanding gained from idealised CO₂ step experiments is applicable to policy-relevant scenario projections. Our approach is conceptually simple. It works by using the climate response to a CO₂ step change taken directly from a GCM experiment. With radiative forcing from non-CO₂ constituents obtained by adapting the Forster and Taylor method, we use our method to estimate results for CMIP5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments for cases not run by the GCMs. We estimate differences between pairs of RCPs rather than RCP anomalies relative to the pre-industrial state. This gives better results because it makes greater use of available GCM projections. The GCMs exhibit differences in radiative forcing, which we incorporate in the simple model. We analyse the thus-completed ensemble of RCP projections. The ensemble mean changes between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for global temperature (heat uptake) are, for RCP8.5: 3.8 K (2.3 × 10²⁴ J); for RCP6.0: 2.3 K (1.6 × 10²⁴ J); for RCP4.5: 2.0 K (1.6 × 10²⁴ J); for RCP2.6: 1.1 K (1.3 × 10²⁴ J). The relative spread (standard deviation/ensemble mean) for these scenarios is around 0.2 and 0.15 for temperature and heat uptake respectively. We quantify the relative effect of mitigation action, through reduced emissions, via the time-dependent ratios (change in RCPx)/(change in RCP8.5), using changes with respect to pre-industrial conditions. We find that the effects of mitigation on global-mean temperature change and heat uptake are very similar across these different GCMs.     

Middle to late Holocene initiation of the annual flood pulse in Tonle Sap Lake,Cambodia

Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia, possesses one of the most productive inland fisheries in the world and is a vital natural resource for the country. The lake is connected to the Mekong River via the Tonle Sap River. Flow in the Tonle Sap River reverses seasonally, with water exiting the lake in the dry season and entering the lake during the summer monsoon. This flood pulse drives the lake’s biological productivity. We used Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopes and elemental concentrations in lake sediment cores to track changes in the provenance of deposits in Tonle Sap Lake. We sought to determine when the lake first began to receive water and sediment input via the Mekong River, which initiated flood pulse processes. The transition from a non-pulsing lake to the Mekong-connected system is marked by shifts to values of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ε_Nd, and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb that are characteristic of Mekong River sediments. In addition, magnetic susceptibility increased and sediment elemental composition changed. Elemental (P) measures point to enhanced phosphorus loading and C/N and isotope ratios of bulk organic matter indicate a shift to greater relative contribution of organic material from aquatic versus terrestrial environments, coinciding with the initiation of flood pulse processes. On the basis of radiocarbon dating in two cores, we estimate the initiation of the annual flood pulse occurred between ~4,450 and 3,910 cal year BP.     

Effects of interface material on the performance of free rocking blocks

This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation on the rocking behavior of rigid blocks. Two types of test specimens have been tested, namely M and C types. Nine blocks of the M type and two blocks of the C type with different aspect ratios were tested with varying initial rotational amplitudes and with different materials at the contact interface, namely concrete, timber, steel, and rubber. The results showed that the interface material has significant influence on the free rocking performance of the blocks. Blocks tested on rubber had the fastest energy dissipation followed by concrete and timber bases, respectively. Analysis of the test results has shown that the energy dissipation in the case of tests on a rubber base is a continuous mechanism whereas in the case of tests on rigid bases, i.e. timber and concrete, energy dissipation is a discrete function. Finally, the rocking characteristics of the blocks were calculated using piecewise equations of motion and numerical analysis. It was possible to predict the correct free rocking amplitude response when a reliable value for the coefficient of restitution was used. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.