The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy

Constraining global average temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or ‘dashboard’. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country’s decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 °C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies.

Policy relevance

In the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization.     

Hydrographic Vertical Separation Surfaces (HyVSEPs) for the Tidal Waters of Canada

Since the advent of Global Navigation Satellite Systems, it has been possible to perform hydrographic survey reductions through the ellipsoid, which has the potential to simplify operations and improve bathymetric products. This technique requires a spatially continuous separation surface connecting chart datum (CD) to a geodetic ellipsoid. The Canadian Hydrographic Service (CHS), with support from the Canadian Geodetic Survey, has developed a new suite of such surfaces, termed Hydrographic Vertical Separations Surfaces, or HyVSEPs, for CD and seven tidal levels. They capture the spatial variability of the tidal datum and levels between tide gauges and offshore using semiempirical models coupling observations at tide stations with relative sea-level rise estimates, dynamic ocean model solutions, satellite altimetry, and a geoid model. HyVSEPs are available for all tidal waters of Canada, covering over seven million square kilometers of ocean and more than 200,000 kilometers of shoreline. This document provides an overview of the CHS's modeling approach, tools, methods, and procedures.

The HyVSEP for CD defines the new hydrographic datum for the tidal waters of Canada. HyVSEPs for other tidal levels are fundamental for coastal studies, climate change adaptation and the definition of the Canadian shoreline and offshore boundaries. HyVSEPs for inland waters are not discussed.     

Tectonic Subsidence of California Estuaries Increases Forecasts of Relative Sea-Level Rise

Even along the generally uplifting coast of the Pacific US, local geologic structures can cause subsidence. In this study, we quantify Holocene-averaged subsidence rates in four estuaries (Carpinteria Slough, Goleta Slough, Campus Lagoon, and Morro Bay) along the southern and central California coast by comparing radiocarbon-dated estuarine material to a regional sea-level curve. Holocene-averaged rates of vertical motion range from subsidence of 1.4?±?2.4, 1.2±0.4, and 0.4?±?0.3 mm/year in Morro Bay, Carpinteria Slough, and Goleta Slough, respectively, to possible uplift in Campus Lagoon (?0.1?±?0.9 mm/year). The calculated rates of subsidence are of the same magnitude as rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the late Holocene and effectively double the ongoing rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the last five decades on other parts of the coast. The difference in rates of vertical motion among these four estuaries is attributed to their geological settings. Estuaries developed in subsiding geological structures such as synclines and fault-bounded basins are subsiding at much higher rates than those developed within flooded river valleys incised into marine terraces. Restoration projects accounting for future sea-level rise must consider the geologic setting of the estuaries and, if applicable, include subsidence in future sea-level rise scenarios, even along the tectonically uplifting US Pacific Coast.     

Wetland Loss,Juvenile Salmon Foraging Performance,and Density Dependence in Pacific Northwest Estuaries

During the transition of juveniles from fresh water to estuarine and coastal environments, the survival of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) can be strongly size selective and cohort abundance is partly determined at this stage. Because quantity and quality of food influence juvenile salmon growth, high rates of prey and energy acquisition during estuarine residence are important for survival. Human activities may have affected the foraging performance of juvenile salmon in estuaries by reducing the area of wetlands and by altering the abundance of salmon. To improve our understanding of the effects of wetland loss and salmon density on juvenile salmon foraging performance and diet composition in estuaries, we assembled Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) diet and density data from nine US Pacific Northwest estuaries across a gradient of wetland loss. We evaluated the influence of wetland loss and density on juvenile Chinook salmon instantaneous ration and energy ration, two measures of foraging performance, and whether the effect of density varied among estuaries with different levels of wetland loss. We also assessed the influence of wetland loss and other explanatory variables on salmon diet composition. There was no evidence of a direct effect of wetland loss on juvenile salmon foraging performance, but wetland loss appeared to mediate the effect of density on salmon foraging performance and alter salmon diet composition. Specifically, density had no effect on foraging performance in the estuaries with less than 50 % wetland loss but had a negative effect on foraging performance in the estuaries with greater than 50 % wetland loss. These results suggest that habitat loss may interact with density to constrain the foraging performance of juvenile Chinook salmon, and ultimately their growth, during a life history stage when survival can be positively correlated with growth and size.     

High Precision Sr‐Nd‐Hf‐Pb Isotopic Compositions of USGS Reference Material BCR‐2

The Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory radiogenic isotope group has been systematically measuring Sr‐Nd‐Pb‐Hf isotopes of USGS reference material BCR‐2 (Columbia River Basalt 2), as a chemical processing and instrumental quality control monitor for isotopic measurements. BCR‐2 is now a widely used geochemical inter‐laboratory reference material (RM), with its predecessor BCR‐1 no longer available. Recognising that precise and accurate data on RMs is important for ensuring analytical quality and for comparing data between different laboratories, we present a compilation of multiple digestions and analyses made on BCR‐2 during the first author's dissertation research. The best estimates of Sr, Nd and Hf isotope ratios and measurement reproducibilities, after filtering at the 2s level for outliers, were ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.705000 ± 11 (2s, 16 ppm, n = 21, sixteen digestions, one outlier), ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd = 0.512637 ± 13 (2s, 25 ppm, n = 27, thirteen digestions, one outlier) and ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf = 0.282866 ± 11 (2s, 39 ppm, n = 25, thirteen digestions, no outliers). Mean Nd and Hf values were within error of those reported by Weis et al. (2006, 2007) in their studies of RMs; mean Sr values were just outside the 2s uncertainty range of both laboratories. Moreover, a survey of published Sr‐Nd‐Hf data shows that our results fall within the range of reported values, but with a smaller variability. Our Pb isotope results on acid leached BCR‐2 aliquots (n = 26, twelve digestions, two outliers) were ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.8029 ± 10 (2s, 55 ppm), ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.6239 ± 8 (2s, 52 ppm), ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 38.8287 ± 25 (2s, 63 ppm). We confirm that unleached BCR‐2 powder is contaminated with Pb, and that sufficient leaching prior to digestion is required to achieve accurate values for the uncontaminated Pb isotopic compositions.     

Cloud Forest Conservation in the Central Highlands of Guatemala Hinges on Soil Conservation and Intensifying Food Production

Soil erosion threatens long-term soil fertility and food production in Q’eqchi’ communities native to the Sierra Yalijux and Sierra Sacranix mountain ranges in the central highlands of Guatemala. Environmental factors such as steep topography, erodible soils, and intense precipitation events, combined with land subdivision and reduced fallow periods as a consequence of population growth, contribute to severe erosion and strain soil resources. The preservation of the region's cloud forests hinges on enhancing production of staple crops through agricultural intensification while maintaining soil fertility through implementation of soil conservation measures.