A step-response approach for predicting and understanding non-linear precipitation changes

Future changes in precipitation represent one of the most important and uncertain possible effects of future climate change. We demonstrate a new approach based on idealised CO₂ step-change general circulation model (GCM) experiments, and test it using the HadCM3 GCM. The approach has two purposes: to help understand GCM projections, and to build and test a fast simple model for precipitation projections under a wide range of forcing scenarios. Overall, we find that the CO₂ step experiments contain much information that is relevant to transient projections, but that is more easily extracted due to the idealised experimental design. We find that the temporary acceleration of global-mean precipitation in this GCM following CO₂ ramp-down cannot be fully explained simply using linear responses to CO₂ and temperature. A more complete explanation can be achieved with an additional term representing interaction between CO₂ and temperature effects. Energy budget analysis of this term is dominated by clear-sky outgoing long-wave radiation (CSOLR) and sensible heating, but cloud and short-wave terms also contribute. The dominant CSOLR interaction is attributable to increased CO₂ raising the mean emission level to colder altitudes, which reduces the rate of increase of OLR with warming. This behaviour can be reproduced by our simple model. On regional scales, we compare our approach with linear ‘pattern-scaling’ (scaling regional responses by global-mean temperature change). In regions where our model predicts linear change, pattern-scaling works equally well. In some regions, however, substantial deviations from linear scaling with global-mean temperature are found, and our simple model provides more accurate projections. The idealised experiments reveal a complex pattern of non-linear behaviour. There are likely to be a range of controlling physical mechanisms, different from those dominating the global-mean response, requiring focussed investigation for individual regions, and in other GCMs.     

The role of buried bedrock valleys on the development of karstic aquifers in flat-lying carbonate bedrock: insights from Guelph, Ontario, Canada

A spatial relationship between high capacity municipal production wells (>5,000 m³/day), completed in a deep bedrock aquifer, and a buried bedrock valley was recognized in the city of Guelph, southwestern Ontario, Canada. Most production wells are completed in a discrete zone, ～60 m below ground surface, within flat-lying dolostones of the Silurian Amabel Formation. Thick overburden and limited subsurface data make characterization of the karstic aquifer difficult. This study integrates hydrogeologic data with models of karst formation, deriving a conceptual model of porosity development as it relates to valley incision. Bedrock valley incision likely occurred prior to the early Wisconsinan age (>60–75 ka). Incision created steep hydraulic gradients within the flat-lying bedrock, and provided the driving force required to integrate regional groundwater flow into karst conduits that drained at the base of the valley. Dissolution in production zone dolostones was favoured over dissolution in shallower bedrock due to abundant bedding plane partings and fossiliferous facies with high intercrystalline porosity. Burial of the valley during subsequent ice advances reduced the valley’s hydraulic influence and the efficacy of the flow system to cause dissolution. The high capacity municipal wells near the buried bedrock valley tap into the now dormant karst aquifer system.     

Paleoecological evidence for abrupt cold reversals during peak Holocene warmth on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

A continuous record of insect (Chironomidae) remains preserved in lake sediments is used to infer temperature changes at a small lake in Arctic Canada through the Holocene. Early Holocene summers at the study site were characterized by more thermophilous assemblages and warmer inferred temperatures than today, presumably in response to the positive anomaly in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Peak early Holocene warmth was interrupted by two cold reversals between 9.5 and 8 cal ka BP, during which multiple cold-stenothermous chironomid taxa appeared in the lake. The earlier reversal appears to correlate with widespread climate anomalies around 9.2 cal ka BP; the age of the younger reversal is equivocal but it may correlate with the 8.2 cal ka BP cold event documented elsewhere. Widespread, abrupt climate shifts in the early Holocene illustrate the susceptibility of the climate system to perturbations, even during periods of enhanced warmth in the Northern Hemisphere.     

Experimental measurement of the solubility of bismuth phases in water vapor from 220 °C to 300 °C: Implications for ore formation

Preliminary measurements were carried out of the solubility of the O_2-buffering assemblage bismuth + bismite (Bi₂O₃) in aqueous liquid–vapor and vapor-only systems at temperatures of 220, 250 and 300 °C. All experiments were carried out in Ti reaction vessels and were designed such that the Bi solids were contained in a silica tube that prevented contact with liquid water at any time during the experiment. Two blank (no Bi solids present) liquid–vapor experiments at 220 °C yielded Bi concentrations (±1σ) in the condensed liquid of 0.22 ± 0.02 mg/L, whereas the solubility measurements at this temperature yielded an average value of approximately 6 ± 9 mg/L, with replicate experiments ranging from 0.3 to 26 mg/L. Although the 6 mg/L value is associated with a considerable degree of uncertainty, the experiments do indicate transport of Bi through the vapor phase. Measured Bi concentrations in the condensed liquid at 250 °C were in the same range as those at 220 °C, whereas those at 300 °C were significantly lower (i.e., all below the blank value). Vapor-only experiments necessarily contained much smaller initial volumes of water, thereby making the results more susceptible to contamination. Single blank runs at 220 and 300 °C yielded Bi concentrations of 82 and 16 mg/L, respectively. Measured concentrations (±1σ) of Bi in the vapor-only solubility experiments at 220 °C were 235 ± 78 mg/L for an initial water volume of 0.5 mL, and at 300 °C were 56 ± 30 mg/L and 33 ± 21 for initial water volumes of 1 and 2 mL, respectively, suggesting strong preferential partitioning of Bi into the vapor. The results indicate a negative dependence of Bi solubility on temperature, but are inconclusive with respect to the dependence of Bi solubility on water density or fugacity.     

The demise of Arctic sea ice during stabilisation at high greenhouse gas concentrations

A climate model experiment was conducted using the HadCM3 climate model and a scenario in which the atmospheric CO₂ concentration was increased over 70 years from pre-industrial concentrations to 4 times this level and then stabilised for more than a 1,000 years. During the period of stabilisation the global atmospheric surface temperatures continued to rise as the deep oceans adjusted towards a new equilibrium. However, even after 1,000 years this new equilibrium had not been reached. During the first 600 years, Arctic and Antarctic winter sea ice thickness and area covered declined with a significant impact on the global radiation budget. After this period the area of the Arctic covered by sea ice entered a 150 years period during which time it underwent a series of oscillations. Following the oscillation the centre of the Arctic basin became ice free throughout the year. A sensitivity experiment demonstrates that although the sea ice extent can be greatly reduced through the artificial heating of the mixed layer, prior to the onset of the oscillatory phase the ice recovers over 15 years. Understanding the causes of this oscillatory phase may elucidate the mechanisms of variability in the Arctic in the present climate and in future policy relevant scenarios. We have investigated the atmospheric and oceanic forcing on the ice during the oscillatory phase, and find that the behaviour is linked to a redistribution of Arctic Ocean heat stores.     

Lanthanoid behaviour in an acidic landscape

Lanthanoids were studied in a boreal landscape where an abundance of acid sulfate soils and Histosols provide a unique opportunity to increase the understanding of how these metals behave in acidic soils and waters and interact with soil and aqueous organic matter. In the acid sulfate soils lanthanoids are mobile as reflected in high to very high concentrations in soil water and runoff (typically a few mg l⁻¹ but up to 12 mg l⁻¹) and abundant release by several relatively weak extractants (ammonium acetate EDTA, sodium pyrophosphate, hydroxylamine hydrochloride) applied on bulk soil. Normalisation with the lanthanoid pool in the underlying parent materials (sulphide-bearing sediments deposited in brackish-water) and soil water showed that the extensive release/retention in the acidic soil was accompanied by large, and variable, fractionation trends across the lanthanoid series. In low-order streams draining these soils, the lanthanoid concentrations were high and, as indicated by frontal ultrafiltration and geochemical modelling, largely dissolved (<1 kDa) in the form of the species LnSO₄⁺ and Ln³⁺. In other moderately acidic stream waters (pH 4.3-4.6), organic complexation was predicted to be important in the <1 kDa fraction (especially for the heavy lanthanoids) and strongly dominating in the colloidal phase (1 kDa-0.45 μm). Along the main stem of a stream in focus (catchment area of 223 km²), lanthanoid concentrations increased downstream, in particular during high flows, caused by a downstream increase in the proportion of acid sulfate soils which are extensively flushed during wet periods. The geochemical models applied to the colloidal Ln-organic phase were not successful in predicting the measured fractionation patterns.     

Marine tephrochronology of the Mt. Edgecumbe Volcanic Field, Southeast Alaska, USA

The Mt. Edgecumbe Volcanic Field (MEVF), located on Kruzof Island near Sitka Sound in southeast Alaska, experienced a large multiple-stage eruption during the last glacial maximum (LGM)-Holocene transition that generated a regionally extensive series of compositionally similar rhyolite tephra horizons and a single well-dated dacite (MEd) tephra. Marine sediment cores collected from adjacent basins to the MEVF contain both tephra-fall and pyroclastic flow deposits that consist primarily of rhyolitic tephra and a minor dacitic tephra unit. The recovered dacite tephra correlates with the MEd tephra, whereas many of the rhyolitic tephras correlate with published MEVF rhyolites. Correlations were based on age constraints and major oxide compositions of glass shards. In addition to LGM-Holocene macroscopic tephra units, four marine cryptotephras were also identified. Three of these units appear to be derived from mid-Holocene MEVF activity, while the youngest cryptotephra corresponds well with the White River Ash eruption at ∼ 1147 cal yr BP. Furthermore, the sedimentology of the Sitka Sound marine core EW0408-40JC and high-resolution SWATH bathymetry both suggest that extensive pyroclastic flow deposits associated with the activity that generated the MEd tephra underlie Sitka Sound, and that any future MEVF activity may pose significant risk to local population centers.     

The impact of Eurasian dust storms and anthropogenic emissions on atmospheric nutrient deposition rates in forested Japanese catchments and adjacent regional seas

Bulk precipitation and stream water chemistry data from 1993 to 2005 are used to analyze the relationship between Eurasian dust storms and nutrient deposition rates in the Kutsuki experimental forest (near Lake Biwa). From 2000 to 2005, atmospheric deposition, total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and dissolved silica (DSi) deposition rates increased by 26%, 132%, and 38%, respectively in the Kutsuki experimental forest. These TN and TP increases are associated with three seasonal factors: the increasing frequency and intensity of Eurasian spring dust events (March/April); the annual typhoon period (late August/September); and autumn/early winter (October to December) monsoons. The annual typhoon and monsoon winter periods are drivers for atmospheric TP and DSi deposition due to the correlation between the deposition and precipitation. In addition, increased spring dust deposition is a primarily driver for TN deposition changes. Increased emissions from urbanized areas in China (and likely Korea) affect the chemical properties of aerosols reaching downwind Japanese regions. Aerosol processes are responsible for increasing TN in aerosols, which are affected primarily by anthropogenic emissions. From 2000 to 2005, coal burning emissions from East Asia have contributed to an increase in TP (and possibly DSi) deposition rates. The observed increase in nutrient deposition did not noticeably impact short-term (5 year) stream water fluxes in the Kutsuki experimental forest. Due to plant uptake, the forest ecosystem retained atmospherically deposited N and P. Finally, the observed increases in nutrient deposition rates over the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan may significantly influence intra-annual net primary production. It is recommended that earth system modelling incorporate changes in atmospheric nutrient deposition rates and their impacts on the regional carbon cycle as well as aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems.     

Titan's surface: Search for spectral diversity and composition using the Cassini VIMS investigation

The surface composition of Titan is of great importance for understanding both the internal evolution of Titan and its atmosphere. The Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) investigation on Cassini is observing Titan from 0.35 to 5.11 μm with spatial resolution down to a few kilometers during each flyby of the spacecraft as it orbits Saturn. Our search for spectral diversity using seven methane transmission windows in the near infrared suggests that spectrally distinct units exist on the surface of Titan and that most of the surface can be modeled using only a few distinct spectral units: water frost, CO₂ frost, atmospheric scattering, and an unknown material bright at 2 μm. A dark, spectrally neutral material is also implied. Use of an atmospheric scattering component with spectral mixing analysis may provide a method for partially removing atmospheric effects. In some locations, atmospheric scattering accounts for the majority of the signal. There are also small regions with unusual spectra that may be due to low signal and high noise and/or may be exotic materials of interest. Further, we searched within the methane windows for spectral features associated with Titan's surface. Only the 5-μm and, to a lesser extent, the 2-μm window provide a reasonable opportunity for this, as the shorter-wavelength windows are too narrow and the 2.8-μm window is cluttered with an unknown atmospheric constituent. We find evidence for only one spectral feature: near 4.92 μm for the 5-μm bright Tui Regio region. CO₂ frost with grains smaller than about 10 μm is the best candidate we have found so far to explain this absorption as well as the feature's spectral contrast between the 2.7- and the 2.8-μm atmosphere subwindows. This suggested CO₂ identification is supported by the presence of an endmember in the spectral mixture analysis that is consistent with CO₂ frost with large grain sizes. We find no other absorption features that are statistically significant, including those reported earlier by others. These results are consistent with but greatly extend our early analysis that treated only the Ta data set [McCord, T.B., et al., 2006a. Planet. Space Sci. 54, 1524-1539]. In the spectral feature search process, we explored in detail the noise characteristics of the VIMS data within the 5-μm window, which has generally very low signal (4-20 DN), due to the measurement conditions and low illumination levels. We find noise of nearly Gaussian statistics except for some erratic darks and noise spikes, and the data set seems generally well behaved. We present examples of our attempt to improve on the standard VIMS pipeline data calibration.