Estimates of CO2 from fires in the United States: implications for carbon management

Background  

Fires emit significant amounts of CO₂ to the atmosphere. These emissions, however, are highly variable in both space and time. Additionally, CO₂ emissions estimates from fires are very uncertain. The combination of high spatial and temporal variability and substantial uncertainty associated with fire CO₂ emissions can be problematic to efforts to develop remote sensing, monitoring, and inverse modeling techniques to quantify carbon fluxes at the continental scale. Policy and carbon management decisions based on atmospheric sampling/modeling techniques must account for the impact of fire CO₂ emissions; a task that may prove very difficult for the foreseeable future. This paper addresses the variability of CO₂ emissions from fires across the US, how these emissions compare to anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ and Net Primary Productivity, and the potential implications for monitoring programs and policy development.     

A Seasonal Statistical Evaluation of COAMPS® over the Arabian Gulf Region

A statistical evaluation of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS^®) was performed over the Arabian Gulf region for the period, 1 August to 5 October, 2004. Verification skill scores of bias and root-mean-square error were estimated for surface variables and for vertical profiles to investigate any diurnal variations. The model predictions of boundary-layer heights are compared with the observations at Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The Middle East presents challenges to numerical weather prediction due to complex land-ocean-land mesoscale processes. An independent data set of surface measurements from 50 stations in the UAE was available from the Department of Water Resources Studies, Abu Dhabi for model verification. The results indicate a diurnal variation in the model errors. The errors are small considering the magnitudes of the observed variables. Errors in the coastal region can be attributed to the differences in the timing of the onset of sea and land breeze circulations in the simulations as compared to the observations. Errors are relatively smaller in the offshore locations.     

Difference between model parameter estimation and curve fitting

Within a single well, a least-squares model such as Ø = a +bT _sonic may be appropriate, insofar as random errors in core measurement and in sonic tool response are concerned. However, if several wells are in the reservoir, and if structural variation across the field exists, no single least-squares solution will adequately describe all wells with the same precision. Interpolation, via a cubic spline, is offered as an alternative to model this type of variation. However, to control both inter- and intra-well variability, a combination of least squares and interpolation is the model of choice.     

The influence of subtropical cold fronts on the surface energy balance of a semi-arid site

The passage of subtropical cold fronts through central Australia produces the only significant mesoscale meteorological features in the region. The interaction of these cold fronts with the surface energy balance strongly affects the local weather and climate. The surface energy balance was measured at a semi-arid site in Alice Springs, central Australia, to determine how it was influenced by the passage of subtropical cold fronts. Both Bowen ratio and eddy correlation methods were used. The daytime energy balance of the site showed high net radiation that was partitioned into 75% sensible heat flux and 25% soil heat flux with little or no latent heat flux. At night there was a large net radiative loss that was balanced primarily by a loss of heat from the soil. The cold fronts predominately passed through Alice Springs at night and showed a strong surface signature. The fronts brought moister air resulting in higher water vapour pressures during their passage. The nocturnal boundary layer was often disturbed as the front passed, resulting in warm, moist air being mixed down toward the land surface. Mixing decreased the soil heat flux and increased latent heat fluxes toward the surface. Moisture that accumulated at the surface at these times was often evaporated after a return to drier conditions. During the daytime, surface signatures in soil and sensible heat fluxes were less distinct due to the strong convective mixing. Latent heat fluxes followed a similar trend to the nocturnal case.     

Helical fields and filamentary molecular clouds – I

We study the equilibrium of pressure truncated, filamentary molecular clouds that are threaded by rather general helical magnetic fields. We first apply the virial theorem to filamentary molecular clouds, including the effects of non-thermal motions and the turbulent pressure of the surrounding ISM. When compared with the data, we find that many filamentary clouds have a mass per unit length that is significantly reduced by the effects of external pressure, and that toroidal fields play a significant role in squeezing such clouds.
We also develop exact numerical MHD models of filamentary molecular clouds with more general helical field configurations than have previously been considered. We examine the effects of the equation of state by comparing 'isothermal' filaments, with constant total (thermal plus turbulent) velocity dispersion, with equilibria constructed using a logatropic equation of state.
Our theoretical models involve three parameters: two to describe the mass loading of the toroidal and poloidal fields, and a third that describes the radial concentration of the filament. We thoroughly explore our parameter space to determine which choices of parameters result in models that agree with the available observational constraints. We find that both equations of state result in equilibria that agree with the observational results. Moreover, we find that models with helical fields have more realistic density profiles than either unmagnetized models or those with purely poloidal fields; we find that most isothermal models have density distributions that fall off as r ^−1.8 to r ⁻², while logatropes have density profiles that range from r ⁻¹ to r ^−1.8. We find that purely poloidal fields produce filaments with steep radial density gradients that are not allowed by the observations.     

Confounded by forgotten legacies: Effectively managing watersheds in the contemporary age of unknown unknowns

Contemporary watershed management practices can reflect oversimplifications of relationships between anthropogenic pressures and resource degradation. Remediation and restoration efforts often focus on recent land use practices as the primary driver of hydrologic regime changes. We present a case study that serves as an example to the scientific and watershed management communities of the lasting influences of historic land use practices and natural physical processes on a stream in the central United States listed as impaired by the federal government. Abnormal spatiotemporal streamflow relationships, determined by means of an experimental watershed study, alerted the authors to possible sink/source behavior in the upper‐watershed. Subsequent research uncovered archival evidence of coal mining, which may provide at least partial explanation. Additional investigation identified hydrologic processes associated with natural landscape evolution, noted by early‐20th‐century researchers, which are considered in the context of the current water quality and flow regime. Despite best‐intended management practices, regulatory agencies, scientists, and local decision makers have not accounted for such practices and processes, instead relying on recent development as the proximate cause of designated impairment. We present argumentation that historic land use (coal mining) and landscape processes comprise cumulative yet unconsidered legacy effects that contribute systemically to the observed hydrologic regime of the watershed. Results hold important implications for contemporary watershed management, and support rethinking the case‐by‐case appropriateness of federal and state water impairment listings, and the achievability of restoration efforts in many developing watersheds.     

Insights on stream temperature processes through development of a coupled hydrologic and stream temperature model for forested coastal headwater catchments

Stream temperature controls a number of biological, chemical, and physical processes occurring in aquatic environments. Transient snow cover and advection associated with lateral throughflow inputs can have a dominant influence on stream thermal regimes for headwater catchments in the rain‐on‐snow zone. Most existing stream temperature models lack the ability to properly simulate these processes. We developed and evaluated a conceptual‐parametric catchment‐scale stream temperature model that includes the role of transient snow cover and lateral advection associated with throughflow. The model consists of routines for simulating canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, hillslope throughflow runoff and temperature, and stream channel energy exchange processes. The model was used to predict discharge and stream temperature for a small forested headwater catchment near Vancouver, Canada, using long‐term (1963–2013) weather data to compute model forcing variables. The model was evaluated against 4 years of observed stream temperature. The model generally predicted daily mean stream temperature accurately (annual RMSE between 0.57 and 1.24 °C) although it overpredicted daily summer stream temperatures by up to 3 °C during extended low streamflow conditions. Model development and testing provided insights on the roles of advection associated with lateral throughflow, channel interception of snow, and surface–subsurface water interactions on stream thermal regimes. This study shows that a relatively simple but process‐based model can provide reasonable stream temperature predictions for forested headwater catchments located in the rain‐on‐snow zone.     

Holocene relative sea‐level changes in Harris,Outer Hebrides,Scotland, UK

Evidence for relative sea‐level changes during the middle and late Holocene is examined from two locations on the Atlantic coast of Harris, Outer Hebrides, Scotland, using morphological mapping and survey, stratigraphical, grain size and diatom analysis, and radiocarbon dating. The earliest event identified is a marine flood, which occurred after 7982–8348 cal. a (7370 ± 80 ¹⁴C a) BP, when the sea crossed a threshold lying at ?0.08 m Ordnance Datum Newlyn (OD) (?2.17 m mean high water springs (MHWS)) before withdrawing. This could have been due to a storm or to the Holocene Storegga Slide tsunami. By 6407–6122 cal. a (5500 ± 60 ¹⁴C a) BP, relative sea levels had begun to fall from a sandflat surface with an indicated MHWS level of between 0.08 and ?1.96 m (?2.01 to ?4.05 m). This fall reached between ?0.30 and ?2.35 m (?2.39 to ?4.44 m) after 5841–5050 cal. a (4760 ± 130 ¹⁴C a) BP, but was succeeded by a relative sea‐level rise which reached between 0.54 and ?1.57 m (?1.55 to ?3.66 m) by 5450–4861 cal. a (4500 ± 100 ¹⁴C a) BP. This rise continued, possibly with an interruption, until a second sandflat surface was reached between 2.34 and ?0.26 m (0.25 to ?2.35 m) between 2952–3375 cal. a (3000 ± 80 ¹⁴C a) and 1948–2325 cal. a (2130 ± 70 ¹⁴C a) BP, before present levels were reached. The regressive episode from the earliest sandflat is correlated with the abandonment of the Main Postglacial Shoreline. It is maintained that the fluctuations in relative sea level recorded can be correlated with similar events elsewhere on the periphery of the glacio‐isostatic centre and may therefore reflect secular changes in nearshore sea surface levels. Despite published evidence from trim lines of differential ice sheet loading across the area, no evidence of variations in uplift between the locations concerned could be found. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.