The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach

This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas.     

A submillimetre survey of the kinematics of the Perseus molecular cloud – I. Data

We present submillimetre observations of the   J = 3 → 2  rotational transition of ¹²CO, ¹³CO and C¹⁸O across over 600 arcmin² of the Perseus molecular cloud, undertaken with the Heterodyne Array Receiver Programme (HARP), a new array spectrograph on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope. The data encompass four regions of the cloud, containing the largest clusters of dust continuum condensations: NGC 1333, IC348, L1448 and L1455. A new procedure to remove striping artefacts from the raw HARP data is introduced. We compare the maps to those of the dust continuum emission mapped with the Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA; Hatchell et al.) and the positions of starless and protostellar cores (Hatchell et al.). No straightforward correlation is found between the masses of each region derived from the HARP CO and SCUBA data, underlining the care that must be exercised when comparing masses of the same object derived from different tracers. From the ¹³CO/C¹⁸O line ratio the relative abundance of the two species  ([¹³CO]/[C¹⁸O]∼ 7)  and their opacities (typically τ is 0.02–0.22 and 0.15–1.52 for the C¹⁸O and ¹³CO gas, respectively) are calculated. C¹⁸O is optically thin nearly everywhere, increasing in opacity towards star-forming cores but not beyond  τ₁₈∼ 0.9  . Assuming the ¹²CO gas is optically thick, we compute its excitation temperature, T _ex (around 8–30 K), which has little correlation with estimates of the dust temperature.     

Optimal water depth management on river-fed National Wildlife Refuges in a changing climate

The prairie pothole region (PPR) in the north-central United States and south-central Canada constitutes the most important waterfowl breeding area in North America. Projected long-term changes in precipitation and temperature may alter the drivers of waterfowl abundance: wetland availability and emergent vegetation cover. Previous studies have focused on isolated wetland dynamics, but the implications of changing precipitation on managed, river-fed wetlands have not been addressed. Using a structured decision making (SDM) approach, we derived optimal water management actions for 20 years at four river-fed National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in North and South Dakota under contrasting increasing/decreasing (+/?0.4 %/year) inflow scenarios derived from empirical trends. Refuge pool depth is manipulated by control structures. Optimal management involves setting control structure heights that have the highest probability of providing a desired mix of waterfowl habitat, given refuge capacities and inflows. We found optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge were essentially the same under increasing and decreasing inflow trends of 0.4 %/year over the next 20 years. Results suggest managed pools in the NWRs receive large inflows relative to their capacities. Hence, water availability does not constrain management; pool bathymetry and management tactics can be greater constraints on attaining management objectives than climate-mediated inflow. We present time-dependent optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge, which are resilient to the non-stationary precipitation scenarios we examined. Managers can use this information to provide a desired mixture of wildlife habitats, and to re-assess management objectives in reserves where pool bathymetry prevents attaining the currently stated objectives.     

Spectral Line and Continuum Radiation Propagation in a Clumpy Medium

We discuss the propagation of spectral line and continuum radiation in a clumpy medium and give general expressions for the observed absorption or emission from a cloud population. We show that the affect of the medium clumpiness can usually be characterised by a single number multiplying the mean column opacity. Our result provides a simpler proof and generalization of the result of Martin et al. (1984). The formalism provides a simple way to understand the effects of clumping on molecular line profiles and ratios; for example, how clumping effects the interpretation of ¹³CO(1–0) to ¹²CO(1–0) line ratios. It also can be used as a propagation operator in physical models of clumpy media where the incident radiation effects the spectral line emissivity. We are working to extend the formalism to the propagation of masers in a clumpy medium, but in this case, there are special difficulties because formal expectation values are not characteristic of observations because they are biased by rare events.     

Rapid colorimetric determination of phosphorus in geochemical survey samples

A colorimetric method for the determination of phosphorus in batches of geochemical survey samples is described. The powdered material is digested with a nitric-perchloric acid mixture, excess of acid is evaporated off and the residue is leached with water. Aliquots of the leachate are treated with vanadomolybdate reagent and the yellow phosphorus complex is extracted into isobutyl methyl ketone. The colour in the organic phase, which is stable for many days, is matched against a series of similarly prepared standards. Iron, other coloured ions, and titanium do not interfere. Standard deviations of ±0.02% about a mean value of 0.20% P₂ O₅ and ±0.4% about a mean of 11.6% P₂ O₅ were obtained. At least 40 powdered samples may be analysed per working day per person.     

Conodont palaeobiology: recent progress and unsolved problems

The fossilized soft-parts of conodonts are extraordinarily rare; excluding dubious and refuted examples, only 10 specimens are known. Nine come from the Lower Carboniferous of Granton, Scotland, and represent at least two genera with complex polygnathacean apparatuses. The soft-parts include well-defined myotomal segmentation and a probable notochord, thus strongly suggesting affinity with the chordates. The tenth specimen, from the Lower Silurian of Waukesha, Wisconsin, bears a simpler apparatus of panderodontid conodont elements. The soft-parts are very poorly preserved, but appear to be unlike those of the Granton specimens. In both occurrences the conodont apparatus appears well adapted for grasping and biting, supporting earlier suggestions that conodont elements acted as teeth. Many conodonts were probably predators or scavengers, but other feeding modes are not necessarily excluded. Other aspects of conodont palaeobiology reviewed here include mode of life and possible migration, reproduction and genetics, and palaeopathology. All these topics rely almost exclusively on the study of conodont elements, and many problems of conodont palaeobiology await further research.