Daily Weather Observations in Sixteenth-Century Europe

Thirty-two weather diaries written in astronomical calendars in central Europe in the late fifteenth and sixteenth centuries are presented and discussed. Systematic weather observations were promoted by the rise of planetary astronomy and its application in astro-meteorology. The practice of keeping weather diaries spread from Cracow (Poland) to Ingolstadt (Germany) and from there to other universities. The data obtained from these sources provided the backbone for setting up series of precipitation indices for Poland, Germany and Switzerland. Monthly statistics of days with precipitation, snowfall and frost were computed by counting the relevant entries in the most important diaries. The results were compared with either those obtained from instrumental measurements in the same place or with those from modern instrumental measurements in a neighbouring place. The final results show that autumn was considerably colder in the early sixteenth century. April was considerably drier and July was wetter during the period 1508-1531 than during 1901-1960. In order to highlight the impact of weather patterns on grain prices in a year of crisis, the timing of wet and dry spells in southern Poland and southern Germany is compared for the year 1529. Winters became 1.7°C colder from 1564 to 1576 and the month of July tended to be wetter than in 1901-1960. Details noted in the diaries kept between 1585 and 1600 by the astronomers Brahe (near Copenhagen) and Fabricius (in the Ostfriesland region of northwestern Germany) closely agree. It rained more often in June and July and temperatures dropped. The winter months were more frequently dominated by winds from easterly directions, the frequency of snowfall was higher and a deficit occurred in precipitation. This points to a higher frequency of high pressure in the Fennoscandian area with cold air advection from the east or northeast.     

The constrained normal form algorithm

This paper describes an algorithm which brings a regularizable polynomial perturbation of a three degree of freedom Kepler problem into a normal form which Poisson commutes with the Kepler Hamiltonian. We illustrate the alogrithm with an example: the quadratic Zeeman effect. For other applications of this algorithm see [1],[4], and [5]. The authors have written a program in MAPLE which implements the constrained normal form.     

Stratigraphic analysis and the asymptotic distribution of the coefficient of cross-association

The asymptotic distribution of the coefficient of cross-association between two sequences of nominal data is investigated under the assumption of independent random sampling from a multinomial distribution slightly modified to suit geological applications. This modification is due to merging consecutive strata of the same rock type into one lithological unit, and can be described by a simple Markov chain. A distinction is made between the case in which the theoretical frequencies are known, and the situation where these have to be estimated from the observed data.     

Special Contributions: Pictorial Series of the Manifestations of the Dynamics of the Earth: 5. Kamchatka,Its Early Cartography and Recent Climate Changes

Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica -     

On the Integrability of Limited-Area Numerical Weather Prediction Model ALADIN over Extended Time Periods

This note summarizes results of the first integration of regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN in a climate mode. The ALADIN model, developed in an international cooperation led by Météo France, is operationally used for weather prediction. The grid step of the model is 12 km; the integration domain covers a major part of Europe. A one-month-long run has been performed with this model on observed boundary conditions (represented by assimilations by the global model ARPEGE). It is demonstrated that no excessive error is generated and accumulated in the model during the integration; hence the model is integrable for extended time periods and may serve a basis for a development towards a regional climate model.     

Geochemistry and mineralogy of Platinum-group elements in the Ransko gabbro–peridotite massif,Bohemian Massif (Czech Republic)

The Ransko gabbro-peridotite massif in Eastern Bohemia is a strongly differentiated intrusive complex of Lower Cambrian age. The complex hosts low grade Ni-Cu ores mainly developed close to the contact of olivine-rich rocks with gabbros, in troctolites and, to a much lesser extent, in both pyroxene and olivine gabbros and plagioclase-rich peridotites. The ore zone is characterized by strong serpentinization and uralitization. The total Ni + Cu locally reaches up to 4 wt%. Anomalous concentrations of platinum-group elements (PGE's) (maximum 532 ppb Pd, 182 ppb Pt, 53 ppb Rh, 15 ppb Ru, 41 ppb Ir) were detected in samples of Cu-Ni and Ni-Cu ores (maximum 2.63 wt% Ni and 2.31 wt% Cu) from the Jezírka orebody. The main ore paragenesis includes pyrrhotite, pentlandite, chalcopyrite, cubanite, pyrite, magnetite, mackinawite, valleriite, ilmenite and sphalerite. During this work, michenerite, froodite, sperrylite, gold, native bismuth, altaite, tsumoite, hessite, an unnamed Bi-Ni telluride, cobaltite-gersdorffite and galena were newly identified. The host rocks originated through partial melting of a slightly depleted mantle source with noble metals scavenged from this primitive magma prior to the development of these rocks.     

Topex/Poseidon Altimetry and Dynamics of the Ocean-Atmosphere System

The T/P altimeter data 1993 – 1997 (cycles 11 – 194) has been analyzed with emphases on seasonal variations in sea surface topography (SST). The amplitude of the annual variations amounted to (5.9±0.3) mm when inverted barometer (IB) corrections were applied and (2.0±0.4) mm without any IB corrections. The amplitude of the semi-annual variations in SST was small with IB corrections applied: (0.6±0.3) mm. However, when no IB corrections were applied, it was (1.8±0.4) mm, i.e. the semiannual variations are at the same level as the annual variations with no IB corrections. The phase angle offset of the annual term has shifted by about 180° when IB correction was applied. The dynamics of the ocean-atmosphere system is discussed and it is concluded that it could, at least partly, be responsible for the above observed effects.     

Time-lapse seismic analysis of pressure depletion in the Southern Gas Basin

In the Southern Gas Basin (SGB) of the North Sea there are many mature gas fields where time‐lapse monitoring could be very beneficial in extending production life. However, the conditions are not immediately attractive for time‐lapse seismic assessment. This is primarily because the main production effect to be assessed is a pore pressure reduction and frame stiffening because of gas production in tight sandstone reservoirs that also have no real seismic direct hydrocarbon indicators. Modelling, based on laboratory measurements, has shown that such an effect would be small and difficult to detect in seismic data. This paper makes two main contributions. Firstly, this is, to our knowledge, the first time‐lapse study in the SGB and involves a real‐data assessment of the viability for detecting production in such an environment. Secondly, the feasibility of using markedly different legacies of data in such a study is addressed, including an assessment of the factors influencing the crossmatching. From the latter, it is found that significant, spatially varying time shifts need to be, and are successfully, resolved through 3‐D warping. After the warping, the primary factors limiting the crossmatching appear to be residual local phase variations, possibly induced by the differing migration strategies, structure, reverberations and different coherencies of the volumes, caused by differences in acquisition‐structure azimuth and acquisition fold. Despite these differences, a time‐lapse amplitude signature is observed that is attributable to production. The character of the 4‐D amplitude anomalies may also indicate variations in stress sensitivity, e.g. because of zones of fracturing. Additionally, warping‐derived time attributes have been highlighted as a potential additional avenue for detection of pressure depletion in such reservoirs. Although the effects are subtle, they may indicate changes in stress/pressure in and around the reservoir because of production. However, to fully resolve the subtle time‐lapse effects in such a reservoir, the data differences need to be better addressed, which may be possible by full re‐processing and pre‐stack analysis, but more likely dedicated 4‐D acquisition would be required.