A hybrid approach to modeling territorial control in violent armed conflicts

Territorial control is central to the understanding of violent armed conflicts, yet reliable and valid measures of this concept do not exist. We argue that geospatial analysis provides an important perspective to measure the concept. In particular, measuring territorial control can be seen as an application of calculating service areas around points of control. The modeling challenge is acute for areas with limited road infrastructure, where no complete network is available to perform the analysis, and movements largely occur off road. We present a new geospatial approach that applies network analysis on a hybrid transportation network with both actual road data and hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data representing on‐road and off‐road movements, respectively. Movement speed or restriction can be readily adjusted using various input data. Simulating off‐road movement with hexagon‐fishnet‐based artificial road data has a number of advantages including scalability to small or large study areas and flexibility to allow all‐directional travel. We apply this method to measuring territorial control of armed groups in Sub‐Saharan Africa where inferior transport infrastructure is the norm. Based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program's (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Data (GED) as well as spatial data on terrain, population locations, and limited transportation networks, we enhance the delineation of the specific areas directly controlled by each warring party during civil wars within a given travel time.     

Effects of nonlinear model response on allocation of streamflow depletion: exemplified by the case of Beaver Creek,USA

Anomalies found when apportioning responsibility for streamflow depletion are examined. The anomalies arise when responsibility is assigned to the two states that contribute to depletion of Beaver Creek in the Republican River Basin in the United States. The apportioning procedure for this basin presumes that the sum of streamflow depletions, computed by comparing simulation model runs with and without groundwater pumping from individual states, approximates the streamflow depletion when both states are pumping. In the case study presented here, this presumed superposition fails dramatically. The stream drying and aquifer-storage depletion, as represented in the simulation model used for allocation, are examined in detail to understand the hydrologic and numerical basis for the severe nonlinear response. Users of apportioning procedures that rely on superposition should be aware of the presence and likely magnitude of nonlinear responses in modeling tools.     

Assessment of Submarine Groundwater Discharge (SGD) as a Source of Dissolved Radium and Nutrients to Moorea (French Polynesia) Coastal Waters

Previous work has documented large fluxes of freshwater and nutrients from submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) into the coastal waters of a few volcanic oceanic islands. However, on the majority of such islands, including Moorea (French Polynesia), SGD has not been studied. In this study, we used radium (Ra) isotopes and salinity to investigate SGD and associated nutrient inputs at five coastal sites and Paopao Bay on the north shore of Moorea. Ra activities were highest in coastal groundwater, intermediate in coastal ocean surface water, and lowest in offshore surface water, indicating that high-Ra groundwater was discharging into the coastal ocean. On average, groundwater nitrate and nitrite (N + N), phosphate, ammonium, and silica concentrations were 12, 21, 29, and 33 times greater, respectively, than those in coastal ocean surface water, suggesting that groundwater discharge could be an important source of nutrients to the coastal ocean. Ra and salinity mass balances indicated that most or all SGD at these sites was saline and likely originated from a deeper, unsampled layer of Ra-enriched recirculated seawater. This high-salinity SGD may be less affected by terrestrial nutrient sources, such as fertilizer, sewage, and animal waste, compared to meteoric groundwater; however, nutrient-salinity trends indicate it may still have much higher concentrations of nitrate and phosphate than coastal receiving waters. Coastal ocean nutrient concentrations were virtually identical to those measured offshore, suggesting that nutrient subsidies from SGD are efficiently utilized.     

Community‐Derived Standards for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb Geochronology – Uncertainty Propagation,Age Interpretation and Data Reporting

The LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb geochronology international community has defined new standards for the determination of U‐(Th‐)Pb ages. A new workflow defines the appropriate propagation of uncertainties for these data, identifying random and systematic components. Only data with uncertainties relating to random error should be used in weighted mean calculations of population ages; uncertainty components for systematic errors are propagated after this stage, preventing their erroneous reduction. Following this improved uncertainty propagation protocol, data can be compared at different uncertainty levels to better resolve age differences. New reference values for commonly used zircon, monazite and titanite reference materials are defined (based on ID‐TIMS) after removing corrections for common lead and the effects of excess ²³⁰Th. These values more accurately reflect the material sampled during the determination of calibration factors by LA‐ICP‐MS analysis. Recommendations are made to graphically represent data only with uncertainty ellipses at 2s and to submit or cite validation data with sample data when submitting data for publication. New data‐reporting standards are defined to help improve the peer‐review process. With these improvements, LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb data can be considered more robust, accurate, better documented and quantified, directly contributing to their improved scientific interpretation.     

Age and growth of Cape stumpnose Rhabdosargus holubi (Pisces: Sparidae) in the Eastern Cape,South Africa

Rhabdosargus holubi is a small (maximum weight=2.4?kg) yet important fishery species in the estuaries of the south-east coast of South Africa. Little is known of its biology and specifically its growth rate, which is essential for sustainable management of the fishery. We examined and counted the opaque zones in the sectioned otoliths of 134 R. holubi to determine its age and growth parameters. The otoliths from two recaptured fish marked with oxytetracycline confirmed that one opaque zone was deposited annually. The species reached a maximum age of 18 years and growth was adequately described by a von Bertalanffy growth function of the form: L_t = 358.1 (1 – e^{?0.24(t+0.77)}) mm fork length. There were no significant differences between any of the male and female growth parameters (likelihood ratio test: p = 0.3). The growth was slow (omega index: ω = 86.56); however, despite this, the unique life history of R. holubi may provide a degree of resilience to heavy fishing pressure in estuaries.     

Phase-equilibrium geobarometers for silicic rocks based on rhyolite-MELTS. Part 4: Plagioclase,orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene,glass geobarometer,and application to Mt. Ruapehu,New Zealand

A new phase equilibria geobarometer determines magmatic storage and crystallization conditions, including pressure, temperature, oxygen fugacity (\({f_{{{\text{o}}_2}}}\)), and the presence of a fluid phase for glass-bearing rocks containing the assemblage plagioclase?+?pyroxene(s). This newly developed geobarometer can better constrain crystallization conditions of shallow (<?500 MPa; <~?20 km), glass-bearing andesites to dacites. The geobarometer utilizes rhyolite-MELTS to determine crystallization conditions in natural pumice and scoria samples. The validity of the geobarometer is tested by comparing it to results from experiments. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. We apply the geobarometer to the plag?+?opx?+?cpx-bearing system of Mt. Ruapehu, in the southern Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand. The samples from Mt. Ruapehu are tested from ~?5 to ~?400 MPa and from super-liquidus to 90% crystalline (~ 1200 to ~ 700 °C). Mt. Ruapehu serves as a methodological testing ground for the geobarometer, and results from our geobarometer agree with recent Mt. Ruapehu studies. Results show a distribution of crystallization pressures ranging from 50 to 150 MPa (~?2.0 to 5.9 km) for different eruptions, with modes of 110 MPa (~ 4.3 km) and 130 MPa (~ 5.1 km). These are consistent with field interpretations of different eruptive styles based on juvenile clast textures and previous knowledge of the magma plumbing system. Mt. Ruapehu magmas are fluid saturated, with \({f_{{{\text{o}}_2}}}\) of ΔQFM ~ + 1 (NNO).     

Conodont geothermometry in pyroclastic kimberlite: constraints on emplacement temperatures and cooling histories

Kimberlite pipes from Chidliak, Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada host surface-derived Paleozoic carbonate xenoliths containing conodonts. Conodonts are phosphatic marine microfossils that experience progressive, cumulative and irreversible colour changes upon heating that are experimentally calibrated as a conodont colour alteration index (CAI). CAI values permit us to estimate the temperatures to which conodont-bearing rocks have been heated. Conodonts have been recovered from 118 samples from 89 carbonate xenoliths collected from 12 of the pipes and CAI values within individual carbonate xenoliths show four types of CAI distributions: (1) CAI values that are uniform throughout the xenolith; (2) lower CAIs in core of a xenolith than the rim; (3) CAIs that increase from one side of the xenolith to the other; and, (4) in one xenolith, higher CAIs in the xenolith core than at the rim. We have used thermal models for post-emplacement conductive cooling of kimberlite pipes and synchronous heating of conodont-bearing xenoliths to establish the temperature–time history of individual xenoliths within the kimberlite bodies. Model results suggest that the time-spans for xenoliths to reach the peak temperatures recorded by CAIs varies from hours for the smallest xenoliths to 2 or 3 years for the largest xenoliths. The thermal modelling shows the first three CAI patterns to be consistent with in situ conductive heating of the xenoliths coupled to the cooling host kimberlite. The fourth pattern remains an anomaly.