Stochastic Hill's equations for the study of errant rocket burns in orbit

The problem of errant rocket burns in low Earth orbit is of growing interest, especially in the area of safety analysis of nuclear powered spacecraft. The development of stochastic Hill's equations provides a rigorous mathematical tool for the study of such errant rocket maneuvers. These equations are analyzed within the context of a theory of linear dynamical systems driven by a random white noise. It is established that the trajectories of an errant rocket are realizations of a Gauss-Markov process, whose mean vector is given by the solution of a deterministic rocket problem. The time-dependent covariance matrix of the process is derived in an explicit form.     

Influence of calibration methodology on ground water flow predictions

We constructed a numerical model of transient ground water flow and solute transport for a portion of the Biscayne Aquifer in Florida, and calibrated the model with three different combinations of data from a 193-day period: head (h) data alone, data on h and ground water discharge to a canal (q), and data on h, q, and ground water chloride concentration (C). We used each of the three calibrated models to predict h and q during a 182-day test period separate from the calibration period. All three calibrated models predicted h equally well during the test period (r = 0.95, where r = 1 indicates perfect agreement between measured and simulated values), though the model calibrated on h alone had significantly different parameter values than the other two models. Predictions of q during the test period depended on calibration methodology; models calibrated with multiple targets simulated q more accurately than the model calibrated on h alone (r = 0.79 compared to r = 0.49). Based on the results of these simulations, we conclude: (1) Post-calibration prediction is important in assessing the value of different data types in automated calibration; (2) inverse-solution uniqueness is not a requirement for accurate h predictions; (3) relatively simple models can predict with reasonable accuracy transient ground water flow in a complex aquifer, and parameters governing this prediction can be estimated by nonlinear regression methods that incorporate both h and q data; (4) addition of C data to the calibration did not improve model predictive capacity because the information in the C data was similar to that in the q data, from the perspective of model calibration (the subsurface chemical signal in question was controlled mainly by seepage of high-chloride canal water into the low-chloride ground water system).     

Concentration and subcellular distribution of trace elements in liver of small cetaceans incidentally caught along the Brazilian coast

Concentrations of trace elements (V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Cu, Zn, Ga, As, Se, Rb, Sr, Mo, Ag, Cd, Sb, Cs, Ba, T-Hg, Org-Hg, Tl and Pb) were determined in liver samples of estuarine dolphin (Sotalia guianensis; n = 20), Franciscana dolphin (Pontoporia blainvillei; n = 23), Atlantic spotted dolphin (Stenella frontalis; n = 2), common dolphin (Delphinus capensis; n = 1) and striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba; n = 1) incidentally caught along the coast of Sao Paulo State and Parana State, Brazil, from 1997 to 1999. The hepatic concentrations of trace elements in the Brazilian cetaceans were comparable to the data available in literature on marine mammals from Northern Hemisphere. Concentrations of V, Se, Mo, Cd, T-Hg and Org-Hg increased with increasing age in liver of both estuarine and Franciscana dolphins. Very high concentrations of Cu (range, 262-1970 microg/g dry wt.) and Zn (range, 242-369 microg/g dry wt.) were observed in liver of sucklings of estuarine dolphin. Hepatic concentrations of V, Se, T-Hg, Org-Hg and Pb were significantly higher in estuarine dolphin, whereas Franciscana dolphin showed higher concentrations of Mn, Co, As and Rb. Ratio of Org-Hg to T-Hg in liver was significantly higher in Franciscana dolphin than estuarine dolphin, suggesting that demethylation ability of methyl Hg might be lower in liver of Franciscana than estuarine dolphins. High hepatic concentrations of Ag were found in some specimens of Franciscana dolphin (maximum, 20 microg/g dry wt.), and 17% of Franciscana showed higher concentrations of Ag than Hg. These samples with high Ag concentration also exhibited elevated hepatic Se concentration, implying that Ag might be detoxified by Se in the liver. Higher correlation coefficient between (Hg+0.5 Ag) and Se than between Hg and Se and the large distribution of Ag in non-soluble fraction in nuclear and mitochondrial fraction of the liver also suggests that Ag might be detoxified by Se via formation of Ag2Se in the liver of Franciscana dolphin.     

Determination of the properties of Mercury's magnetic field by the MESSENGER mission

The MESSENGER mission to Mercury, to be launched in 2004, will provide an opportunity to characterize Mercury's internal magnetic field during an orbital phase lasting one Earth year. To test the ability to determine the planetary dipole and higher-order moments from measurements by the spacecraft's fluxgate magnetometer, we simulate the observations along the spacecraft trajectory and recover the internal field characteristics from the simulated observations. The magnetic field inside Mercury's magnetosphere is assumed to consist of an intrinsic multipole component and an external contribution due to magnetospheric current systems described by a modified Tsyganenko 96 model. Under the axis-centered-dipole approximation without correction for the external field the moment strength is overestimated by ∼4% for a simulated dipole moment of , and the error depends strongly on the magnitude of the simulated moment, rising as the moment decreases. Correcting for the external field contributions can reduce the error in the dipole term to a lower limit of ∼1-2% without a solar wind monitor. Dipole and quadrupole terms, although highly correlated, are then distinguishable at the level equivalent to an error in the position of an offset dipole of a few tens of kilometers. Knowledge of the external magnetic field is therefore the primary limiting factor in extracting reliable knowledge of the structure of Mercury's magnetic field from the MESSENGER observations.     

Estimating recharge rates with analytic element models and parameter estimation

Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective ground water flow modeling. In this study, an analytic element (AE) code (GFLOW) was used with a nonlinear parameter estimation code (UCODE) to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge using measured base flows as calibration targets. The ease and flexibility of AE model construction and evaluation make this approach well suited for recharge estimation. An AE flow model of an undeveloped watershed in northern Wisconsin was optimized to match median annual base flows at four stream gages for 1996 to 2000 to demonstrate the approach. Initial optimizations that assumed a constant distributed recharge rate provided good matches (within 5%) to most of the annual base flow estimates, but discrepancies of >12% at certain gages suggested that a single value of recharge for the entire watershed is inappropriate. Subsequent optimizations that allowed for spatially distributed recharge zones based on the distribution of vegetation types improved the fit and confirmed that vegetation can influence spatial recharge variability in this watershed. Temporally, the annual recharge values varied >2.5-fold between 1996 and 2000 during which there was an observed 1.7-fold difference in annual precipitation, underscoring the influence of nonclimatic factors on interannual recharge variability for regional flow modeling. The final recharge values compared favorably with more labor-intensive field measurements of recharge and results from studies, supporting the utility of using linked AE-parameter estimation codes for recharge estimation.