Climate projections of spatial variations in coastal storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast

Using statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing, we performed a numerical investigation to evaluate future climate's impact on storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast. The focus is on the impact of climatic changes in wind pattern and surface pressure while neglecting sea level rise and other factors. We adapted the regional ocean model system(ROMS) to the study region with a mesh grid size of 7–10 km in horizontal and 18 vertical layers. The model was validated by a hindcast of the coastal sea levels in the winter of 2008. Model's robustness was confirmed by the good agreement between model-simulated and observed sea levels at 37 tidal gages. Two 10-year forecasts, one for the IPCC Pre-Industry(PI) and the other for the A1 FI scenario, were conducted. The differences in model-simulated surge heights under the two climate scenarios were analyzed. We identified three types of responses in extreme surge heights to future climate: a clear decrease in Middle Atlantic Bight, an increase in the western Gulf of Mexico, and non-significant response for the remaining area. Such spatial pattern is also consistent with previous projections of sea surface winds and ocean wave heights.     

利用水系沉积物高程定量恢复古地貌的技术方法——以鲁西白彦地区白彦砾岩为例

主要分析了构造抬升对水系和地形的影响和恢复,以从古生代灰岩围岩中大面积但零星出露的岩溶砾岩点为研究对象,对区域古水系和地形地貌恢复和反演做出了新的尝试。在收集资料和实测的基础上,尝试性探讨了利用稳定水体参照物高程反演抬升高度以及邻区山峰点的古高程、古水系,恢复区域上古地形地貌的技术方法。并以白彦地区为例,通过白彦岩溶砾岩的分布、产状、金刚石矿物含量、岩性等地质特征,恢复白彦地区古地形线、古水系位置和流向等古地理地貌,指出在白彦期时代,该区总体发育4个水系,邹城市大石墙水系、枣庄水系、平邑水系、费县水系,水系中金刚石含量较为丰富的砾岩点大多分布在凤凰山隆起中心,其中在平邑水系推测存在一个山地峡谷中的古湖泊。认为蒙山凸起中已知的常马庄地区的金伯利岩脉所含有金刚石可能主要供应平邑区水系,其他3个地区水系的金刚石可能来源于凤凰山及其东部隆起剥蚀地区。     

郑州-荥阳附近全新世湖沼沉积环境及对人类文化发展的意义

郑州地区深约4~12 m多处发现有1-2层灰黑色黏土层,具有湖沼相沉积特征。中原地区是华夏文明发祥地,文明发展与环境密切相关,稳定的水源是先民生存繁衍的基础,探究古湖存在对认识文明起源与发展具有重要意义。选取该区张五寨、司马村、后真村、安庄村等4个含湖沼层剖面,采集2个标准钻孔和15个控制孔岩心,进行沉积学、物理磁学、生物化石、有机碳和地球化学等环境指标分析。湖沼层系灰-黑色黏土-粉砂黏土,夹于上下河流相沉积中。放射性碳和释光等测年技术测定结果表明,湖沼层时代为全新世中期,约3~8 kaBP。黏土含量高值与磁化率低值对应,反映出径流搬运的磁性重矿物较少,表明较弱的水动力条件或静水沉积,代表湖沼相环境。孢粉分析出香蒲属、蓼属、莕菜属、狐尾藻属、眼子菜属等水生植物花粉,最高占草本的19.4%。该湖沼层中有机碳含量平均为21.6%,最高达29.4%。化学元素综合环境C值与黏土含量变化同步,反映出古湖在气候湿润或降水增加的环境下形成;还反映了流域植被覆盖度较高,水土流失少,主要搬运细颗粒物质入湖。沉积证据重建的全新世中期湖沼环境,与区域仰韶和龙山文化的古遗址点分布特征一致,由此定量估计了其分布范围和面积。本研究为郑州地区全新世存在古湖沼提供了科学依据,也为人文考古、遗址发掘提供实践意义的帮助。     

Lg amplitude ratios H/Z and station terms in the six eastern provinces of China

Using the data set of about 1 Hz Lg amplitudes from 80 stations in the six eastern provinces of China, the ratios of horizontal to vertical amplitude of Lg waves,H/Z are determined. The mean lg(H/Z)-value is equal to 0.13. For the station bases of soft deposit,granite and sedimentary rock, lg(H/Z)-values average 0.55, 0.04 and 0.10, respectively. For the three kinds of station bases, the station terms of horizontal amplitude,C _h average 0.65, −0.09 and 0.00; that of vertical amplitude,C _z average 0.32, −0.04 and 0.00, respectively. There are the relations betweenC _h ,C _z and lg(H/Z):C _h =0.01+2.10C _z andC _h =−0.15+1.46 lg(H/Z). The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 281–286, 1991. Project sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.     

Classifying Human Activity Patterns from Smartphone Collected GPS data: A Fuzzy Classification and Aggregation Approach

Smartphones have emerged as a promising type of equipment for monitoring human activities in environmental health studies. However, degraded location accuracy and inconsistency of smartphone‐measured GPS data have limited its effectiveness for classifying human activity patterns. This study proposes a fuzzy classification scheme for differentiating human activity patterns from smartphone‐collected GPS data. Specifically, a fuzzy logic reasoning was adopted to overcome the influence of location uncertainty by estimating the probability of different activity types for single GPS points. Based on that approach, a segment aggregation method was developed to infer activity patterns, while adjusting for uncertainties of point attributes. Validations of the proposed methods were carried out based on a convenient sample of three subjects with different types of smartphones. The results indicate desirable accuracy (e.g. up to 96% in activity identification) using of this method. Two examples are provided in the Appendix to illustrate how the proposed methods could be applied in environmental health studies. Researchers could tailor this scheme to fit a variety of research topics.     

海洋涡旋遥感：进展与挑战

海洋涡旋数量大、分布广、含能高、裹挟强,是研究物质循环、能量级联和圈层耦合的理想载体。对涡旋的全生命周期追踪观测成为21世纪以来海洋遥感领域最重要的进展之一,并引发了新一轮涡旋研究的热潮。本文从涡旋的温度异常、物质示踪、旋转流场和闭合拓扑等特征出发,简述了红外辐射计、可见光扫描仪、微波高度计、合成孔径雷达等遥感技术在涡旋观测中的机理和方法,重点阐述了卫星高度计涡旋识别与追踪算法及其在涡旋形态学、运动学和动力学中的应用。基于虚拟星座下的多参数遥感,介绍了涡旋在海洋、大气、生态等交叉学科领域的前沿应用和最新进展。指出当前涡旋遥感发展面临的亚中尺度、垂直结构、跨学科研究等3大挑战,展望了新一代遥感技术在未来海洋科学特别是涡旋海洋学研究中的应用前景。     

中国历史时期气候变化影响及其应对的启示简

The social impact of global climate change is one of the hotspots in the current research. To deal with the challenges from climate change, it could be learned from the adapting experiences and lessons to climate change in the history. The main achievements of cognition on the historical impacts of climatic change in China and on coping with the climate changes in the future based the published papers in recent years is summarized. The followings are the main conclusions. ①The general characteristics of the impacts of climatic change in the history was negative in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods, but there were regional differences in the impact and responses. ②The cooling trend on centurial scale and the social economic decline run concurrently. The rapid development supported by better resources and environment in the warm period could lead to the increase of the social vulnerability when the climate turned to the cold period. ③Strategies and policies to cope with the climate change in the history were adopted according to the temporal and spatial circumstances and the subjects. Initiative adaptation promoted by governments was an effective way.     

应用氚和14C方法确定柴达木盆地诺木洪地区地下水年龄

以柴达木盆地的诺木洪为研究区,利用氚与¹⁴C方法计算了当地各水体的年龄,分析地下水年龄分布特征及其可更新能力。结果表明：山区至冲洪积扇中部地下水年龄为15~18 a,为1952年之后补给的现代水,更新能力较强;冲洪积扇前缘地下水年龄不超过2 ka,具有现代水与古水混合的特征,更新能力较差;溢出带到盆地中心地下水年龄急剧变老,变化范围为5~28 ka,据此推测研究区溢出带位置的隐伏断层具阻水性质,该位置的地下水基本无更新能力。     

新疆西天山哈勒尕提-木祖克铁铜铅锌矿床地质特征及成矿条件分析

哈勒尕提-木祖克铁铜铅锌矿床是近年来在新疆西天山博罗科努成矿带内发现的一处典型的矽卡岩型铜多金属矿床,目前为中型规模,有达到大型矿床的潜力。矿体赋存于大瓦布拉克岩体与上奥陶统呼独克达坂组(O3h)大理岩、大理岩化灰岩的接触带。成矿受岩浆岩、地层岩性和接触带构造"三位一体"联合控制。大瓦布拉克岩体主要岩性为二长花岗岩和花岗闪长岩,岩石地球化学显示高硅、准铝、低镁、富碱、富钾,为I型花岗岩,富集大离子亲石元素,相对亏损高场强元素,具俯冲带岩浆岩的地球化学特点。呼独克达坂组(O3h)碳酸盐岩地球化学性质活泼且富含铜、锌,有利于含矿热液交代成矿,是区域找矿的优势层位。接触带构造既是成矿地球化学障,又是良好的成矿热液运移通道,直接控制着矿体的产出。     

南海北部ODP 1144站中更新世气候转型期有孔虫稳定同位素古气候意义

中更新世气候转型期是第四纪古气候研究的一个特殊时期。利用大洋钻探ODP 184航次在南海北部钻取的1144站时间分辨率高达约290年的沉积物样品，开展中更新世气候转型期古气候变化的研究。在中更新世距今80~100万年前，浮游和底栖有孔虫壳体的稳定氧碳同位素变化揭示出，中更新世气候转型中心，即中更新世革命0.9 Ma左右，南海北部表层海水温度的降低和降水量的增加指示东亚冬、夏季风增强。以中更新世革命为界，水体垂向结构上温跃层和营养跃层的深度从之前的间冰期较浅转变为之后的间冰期较深，底层水与表层水的垂直温度梯度从冰期时较大转变为冰期时较小。轨道尺度上，冰消期时南海北部的表层水、次表层水和底层水的变化几乎是同时发生的，不存在超前或滞后的相位差。千年尺度上，有孔虫的氧碳同位素变化都呈现出非常明显的约0.8 ka和约1.4 ka的气候波动周期。氧同位素0.8 ka滤波显示出：在中更新世气候转型期，较强的信号主要出现在间冰期，有时也出现在冰期，与晚第四纪千年尺度气候波动主要出现在冰期不同，说明中更新世的气候转型不仅表现在轨道尺度的气候周期变化上，同时也体现在千年尺度气候波动的特征变化中。 