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Jun Takahashi Tatsuo Suzuki Igor V Polyakov Kohei Mizobata Moto Ikeda Fancois J.Saucier Markus Meier 《极地研究(英文版)》2008,19(2):159-167
This study investigates the Arctic Ocean warming episodes in the 20th century using both a high-resolution coupled global climate model and historical observations. The model, with no flux adjustment, reproduces well the Atlantic Water core temperature (AWCT) in the Arctic Ocean and shows that four largest decadalscale warming episodes occurred in the 1930s, 70s, 80s, and 90s, in agreement with the hydrographic observational data. The difference is that there was no pre-warming prior to the 1930s episode, while there were two pre-warming episodes in the 1970s and 80s prior to the 1990s, leading the 1990s into the largest and prolonged warming in the 20th century. Over the last century, the simulated heat transport via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea was estimated to be, on average, 31.32 TW and 14.82 TW, respectively, while the Bering Strait also provides 15.94 TW heat into the west- ern Arctic Ocean. Heat transport into the Arctic Ocean by the Atlantic Water via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea correlates significantly with AWCT ( C = 0.75 ) at 0- lag. The modeled North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a significant correlation with the heat transport ( C = 0.37 ). The observed AWCT has a significant correlation with both the modeled AWCT ( C =0.49) and the heat transport ( C =0.41 ). However, the modeled NAO index does not significantly correlate with either the observed AWCT ( C = 0.03 ) or modeled AWCT ( C = 0.16 ) at a zero-lag, indicating that the Arctic climate system is far more complex than expected. 相似文献
94.
INTRODUCTIONEmpiricalorthogonalfunction (EOF)isastatisticalmethodwidelyusedtoquantitativelyexam inemeteorologicalandoceanicdata (PreisendorferandBarnett,1 977;Rasmussonetal.,1 981 ;KnappenbergerandMichaels,1 993 ;LeeandCornillon ,1 995) .Themethodseeksoutthefirstfeworth… 相似文献
95.
Previous studies have identified two emission modes in PSR B1859+07: a normal mode that has three prominent components in the average profile, with the trailing one being the brightest, and an anomalous mode(i.e., the A mode) where emissions seem to be shifted to an earlier phase. Within the normal mode, further analysis has revealed the presence of two submodes, i.e., the cW mode and c B mode, where the central component can appear either weak or bright. As for the anomalous mode, a new bright ... 相似文献
96.
Ronan Connolly Willie Soon Michael Connolly Sallie Baliunas Johan Berglund C. J. Butler Rodolfo Gustavo Cionco Ana G. Elias Valery M. Fedorov Hermann Harde Gregory W. Henry Douglas V. Hoyt Ole Humlum David R. Legates Nicola Scafetta Jan-Erik Solheim László Szarka Víctor M. Velasco Herrera Hong Yan Weijia Zhang 《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2023,(10):369-388
Since 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature(ST) estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused. In Connolly et al., we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance(TSI) and ST data sets.We compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by alter... 相似文献
97.
For high-precision pulsar timing analysis and low-frequency gravitational wave detection, it is essential to accurately determine pulsar pulse times of arrival(ToAs) and associated uncertainties. To measure the ToAs and their uncertainties, various cross-correlation-based techniques can be employed. We develop methodologies to investigate the impact of the template-matching method, profile shape, signal-to-noise ratio of both template and observation on ToA uncertainties. These methodologies are... 相似文献
98.
Kirby MF Smith AJ Barry J Katsiadaki I Lyons B Scott AP 《Marine environmental research》2006,62(4):315-325
This study was conducted as an initial investigation of 'differential response' in one of the main sentinel organisms used for monitoring programmes in United Kingdom estuaries, the flounder Platichthys flesus. It has been hypothesised that monitoring using species with a wide geographical spread and limited migration, such as flounder, might result in the comparison of different genetic stocks and certainly of populations with differing early life stage contaminant exposure histories. Furthermore, it is probable that these pre-exposure and genetic differences could manifest themselves in an ability to respond differently to contaminant exposure, so-called 'differential response'. It is important that the extent and nature of this response is understood, if we want to be able to fully interpret the monitoring data from such programmes. During this study, flounder were collected from four separate sources; wild caught fish from the estuaries of the Rivers Alde, Mersey and Tyne, and farmed flounder from Port Erin Farm, Isle of Man. Under controlled laboratory conditions, groups of fish from each source were exposed to water-borne concentrations of the synthetic oestrogen ethynylestradiol (EE2) at a nominal concentration of 50 ng/l. Plasma was taken from each male fish after 6 and 10 days exposure and analysed for the presence of vitellogenin (VTG) using an ELISA technique. Significant levels of VTG induction were evident in fish from all sources after both 6 and 10 days exposure. Flounder from the Mersey were the only fish with significantly elevated initial background levels of VTG (day 0) and this appeared to be reflected in that these specimens showed the highest induction response after day 6. However, after day 10, fish from all other sites had a slightly higher mean VTG than those from the Mersey which showed significantly (p < 0.05) lower mean plasma VTG. It is suggested that other differential responses may have been masked by the use of a high dose of EE2 which produced maximum induction in nearly all fish. The findings of the study are discussed in terms of implications for further research into the differential response issue and how the initial plasma VTG figures contribute to a time-series from the Mersey, Tyne and Alde estuaries. 相似文献
99.
Huan WU Xiaomeng LI Guy J.-P.SCHUMANN Lorenzo ALFIERI Yun CHEN Hui XU Zhifang WU Hong LU Yamin HU Qiang ZHU Zhijun HUANG Weitian CHEN Ying HU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(1):1-7
The prolonged mei-yu/baiu system with anomalous precipitation in the year 2020 has swollen many rivers and lakes,caused flash flooding,urban flooding and landslides,and consistently wreaked havoc across large swathes of China,particularly in the Yangtze River basin.Significant precipitation and flooding anomalies have already been seen in magnitude and extension so far this year,which have been exerting much higher pressure on emergency responses in flood control and mitigation than in other years,even though a rainy season with multiple ongoing serious flood events in different provinces is not that uncommon in China.Instead of delving into the causes of the uniqueness of this year’s extreme precipitation-flooding situation,which certainly warrants in-depth exploration,in this article we provide a short view toward a more general hydrometeorological solution to this annual nationwide problem.A“glocal”(global to local)hydrometeorological solution for floods(GHS-F)is considered to be critical for better preparedness,mitigation,and management of different types of significant precipitation-caused flooding,which happen extensively almost every year in many countries such as China,India and the United States.Such a GHS-F model is necessary from both scientific and operational perspectives,with the strength in providing spatially consistent flood definitions and spatially distributed flood risk classification considering the heterogeneity in vulnerability and resilience across the entire domain.Priorities in the development of such a GHS-F are suggested,emphasizing the user’s requirements and needs according to practical experiences with various flood response agencies. 相似文献
100.
The improvement on the calculation of anti-Stokes energy transfer rate is studied in the present work. The additional proportion coefficient between Stokes and anti-Stokes light intensities of quantum Raman scattering theory as compared with the classical Raman theory is introduced to successfully describe the anti-Stokes energy transfer. The theoretical formula for the improvement on the calculation of anti-Stokes energy transfer rate is derived for the first time in this study. The correctness of introducing coefficient exp{ΔE / kT} from well-known Raman scatter theory is demonstrated also. Moreover, the experimental lifetime measurement in Er0.01YbxY1 - 0.01 - xVO4 crystal is performed to justify the validity of our important improvement in the original phonon-assisted energy transfer theory for the first time. 相似文献