Analysis of the surface temperature and wind forecast errors of the NCAR-AirDat operational CONUS 4-km WRF forecasting system

Investigating the characteristics of model-forecast errors using various statistical and object-oriented methods is necessary for providing useful guidance to end-users and model developers as well. To this end, the random and systematic errors (i.e., biases) of the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind predictions of the NCAR-AirDat weather research and forecasting (WRF)-based real-time four-dimensional data assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system are analyzed. This system has been running operationally over a contiguous United States (CONUS) domain at a 4-km grid spacing with four forecast cycles daily from June 2009 to September 2010. In the result an exceptionally useful forecast dataset was generated and used for studying the error properties of the model forecasts, in terms of both a longer time period and a broader coverage of geographic regions than previously studied. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the errors are investigated based on the 24-h forecasts between June 2009 and April 2010, and the 72-h forecasts between May and September 2010. It was found that the biases of both wind and temperature forecasts vary greatly seasonally and diurnally, with dependency on the forecast length, station elevation, geographical location, and meteorological conditions. The temperature showed systematic cold biases during the daytime at all station elevations and warm biases during the nighttime above 1,000 m above sea level (ASL), while below 600 m ASL cold biases occurred during the nighttime. The forecasts of surface wind speed exhibited strong positive biases during the nighttime, while the negative biases were observed in the spring and summer afternoons. The surface wind speed was mostly over-predicted except for the stations located between 1,000 and 2,100 m ASL, for which negative biases were identified for most forecast cycles. The highest wind-speed errors were found over the high terrain and near sea-level stations. The wind-direction errors were relatively large at the high-terrain elevation in the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges and the western coastal areas and the error structure exhibited notable diurnal variability.     

Silica Springs,Tongariro National Park,New Zealand—analyses of the spring water and characterisation of the alumino-silicate deposit

The creamy-white deposit in the stream bed below Silica Springs outlet on Mount Ruapehu, Tongariro National Park, New Zealand, has been identified as a hydrous, X-ray-amorphous, aluminosilicate (allophane). The SiO₂/Al₂O₃ mole ratio varies from close to one, to close to two. The elements K, Ca, Mn and Fe are present in low concentrations relative to those in allophanic soil clays, and tend to increase in concentration downstream from where the deposit first occurs. The concentration of S decreases downstream from 0.5% to 0.1%. Surface areas of samples, measured by the ethylene glycol desorption method, are about 200–300 m²/g. The outlet water at Silica Springs contains low dissolved solids and is undersaturated with respect to amorphous silica, but is supersaturated with respect to several alumino-silicate minerals (of which allophane may be considered the precursor) and with respect to CO₂. Gas bubbling at the outlet contains about 10% CO₂ which has a δC¹³_PDB value of ?7.5%..Silica Springs water is derived from the addition of geothermal CO₂ (and possibly H₂S) to near-surface meteoric water from the lava flow above the outlet, and the chemical attack of this water on the andesitic rocks and soil through which it passes. The pH of water at Silica Springs increases from 5.45 at the outlet, to 5.90 where deposition first occurs, to 6.80 below the region of maximum deposition. This rise in pH correlates with loss of excess CO₂ in turbulent regions of the stream, and, through surface charge effects, is probably an important influence on the site of deposition, which begins approx. 100m downstream from the outlet.     

Observations and Numerical Simulations of Urban Heat Island and Sea Breeze Circulations over New York City

Observations from two SOund Detection And Ranging (SODAR) units, a 10 m micrometeorological tower and five Automated Surface Observing Stations (ASOS) were examined during several synoptic scale flow regimes over New York City after the World Trade Center disaster on September 11, 2001. An ARPS model numerical simulation was conducted to explore the complex mesoscale boundary layer structure over New York City. The numerical investigation examined the urban heat island, urban roughness effect and sea breeze structure over the New York City region. Estimated roughness lengths varied from 0.7 m with flow from the water to 4 m with flow through Manhattan. A nighttime mixed layer was observed over lower Manhattan, indicating the existence of an urban heat island. The ARPS model simulated a sea-breeze front moving through lower Manhattan during the study period consistent with the observations from the SODARs and the 10-m tower observations. Wind simulations showed a slowing and cyclonic turning of the 10-m air flow as the air moved over New York City from the ocean. Vertical profiles of simulated TKE and wind speeds showed a maximum in TKE over lower Manhattan during nighttime conditions. It appears that this TKE maximum is directly related to the influences of the urban heat island.     

Across‐axis variations in petrophysical properties of the North Porcupine Basin,offshore Ireland: New insights from long‐streamer traveltime tomography

The Porcupine Basin is a Mesozoic failed rift located in the North Atlantic margin, SW of Ireland, in which a postrift phase of extensional faulting and reactivation of synrift faults occurred during the Mid–Late Eocene. Fault zones are known to act as either conduits or barriers for fluid flow and to contribute to overpressure. Yet, little is known about the distribution of fluids and their relation to the tectono‐stratigraphic architecture of the Porcupine Basin. One way to tackle this aspect is by assessing seismic (V_p) and petrophysical (e.g., porosity) properties of the basin stratigraphy. Here, we use for the first time in the Porcupine Basin 10‐km‐long‐streamer data to perform traveltime tomography of first arrivals and retrieve the 2D V_p structure of the postrift sequence along a ~130‐km‐long EW profile across the northern Porcupine Basin. A new V_p–density relationship is derived from the exploration wells tied to the seismic line to estimate density and bulk porosity of the Cenozoic postrift sequence from the tomographic result. The V_p model covers the shallowest 4 km of the basin and reveals a steeper vertical velocity gradient in the centre of the basin than in the flanks. This variation together with a relatively thick Neogene and Quaternary sediment accumulation in the centre of the basin suggests higher overburden pressure and compaction compared to the margins, implying fluid flow towards the edges of the basin driven by differential compaction. The V_p model also reveals two prominent subvertical low‐velocity bodies on the western margin of the basin. The tomographic model in combination with the time‐migrated seismic section shows that whereas the first anomaly spatially coincides with the western basin‐bounding fault, the second body occurs within the hangingwall of the fault, where no major faulting is observed. Porosity estimates suggest that this latter anomaly indicates pore overpressure of sandier Early–Mid Eocene units. Lithological well control together with fault displacement analysis suggests that the western basin‐bounding fault can act as a hydraulic barrier for fluids migrating from the centre of the basin towards its flanks, favouring fluid compartmentalization and overpressure of sandier units of its hangingwall.     

The interaction of topography and shear flow in a homogeneous rotating fluid

Abstract

Laboratory experiments are described in which a cylindrical obstacle is moved azimuthally through a rotating cylindrical tank of fluid in which a basic azimuthal flow inversely dependent upon the tank radius is generated by means of a source-sink arrangement. A technique is described whereby the flow can be adjusted until, relative to the obstacle, it is forward near the centre of the tank and reversed near the rim, with a monotonic variation between these extremes. The sense of this shear, relative to the obstacle, can be altered so that it either opposes or coincides with the sense of the basic rotation. Both cases are investigated in the experiments. The results of both qualitative and quantitative measurements are presented, and some comparison with related theoretical work is attempted.     

Metropolitan-scale Transport and Dispersion from the New York World Trade Center Following September 11, 2001. Part I: An Evaluation of the CALMET Meteorological Model

Following the collapse of the New York City World Trade Center towers on September 11, 2001, Local, State and Federal agencies initiated numerous air monitoring activities to better understand the impact of emissions from the disaster. A study of the estimated pathway that a potential plume of emissions would likely track was completed to support the U.S. EPA’s initial exposure assessments. The plume from the World Trade Center was estimated using the CALMET-CALPUFF dispersion modeling system. The following is the first of two reports that compares several meteorological models, including the CALMET diagnostic model, the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) and 5^th Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) in the complex marine-influenced urban setting of NYC. Results indicate wind speed, in most cases, is greater in CALMET than the two mesoscale models because the CALMET micrometeorological processor does not properly adjust the wind field for surface roughness variations that exits in a major built-up urban area. Small-scale circulations, which were resolved by the mesoscale models, were not well simulated by CALMET. Independent wind observations in Lower Manhattan suggest that the wind direction estimates of CALMET possess a high degree of error because of the urban influence. Wind speed is on average 1.5 ms⁻¹ stronger in CALMET than what observations indicate. The wind direction downwind of the city is rotated 25–34 clockwise in CALMET, relative to what observations indicate.     

Assessing trophic adaptability is critical for understanding the response of predatory fishes to climate change: a case study of Pomatomus saltatrix in a global hotspot

There is a growing need to incorporate biotic interactions, particularly those between predators and their prey, when predicting climate-driven shifts in marine fishes. Predators dependent on a narrow range of prey species should respond rapidly to shifts in the distribution of their prey, whereas those with broad trophic adaptability may respond to shifts in their prey by altering their diet. Small pelagic fishes are an extremely important component of the diet of many marine predators. However, their populations are expected to shift in distribution and fluctuate in abundance as the climate changes. We conducted a comparative study of the seasonal diet of adult Pomatomus saltatrix over two periods (June–December 2006 and 2012) and examined the available data on small pelagic fishes biomass in a global hotspot (the coastal region of southern Angola, southern Africa) to gain an understanding of the tropic adaptability of the species. Despite a drop (630 000 t to 353 000 t) in the abundance of their dominant prey (Sardinella aurita) in the region, it remained the most important prey item during both study periods (Period 1 = 99.3% RI, Period 2 = 85.3% RI, where %RI is a ranking index of relative importance). However, the diet during Period 2 was supplemented with prey typically associated with the nearshore zone. The seasonal data showed that P. saltatrix were capable not only of switching their diet from S. aurita to other prey items, but also of switching their trophic habitat from the pelagic to the nearshore zone. These findings suggest that P. saltatrix will not necessarily co-migrate if there is a climate-driven shift in the distribution of small pelagic fishes (their dominant prey). Accordingly, understanding the trophic adaptability of predators is critical for understanding their response to the impacts of climate change.     

Sediments of lakes Rotoroa and Rotoiti,South Island,New Zealand

The chemistry and mineralogy of the sediments of Lakes Rotoroa and Rotoiti, South Island, New Zealand (41° 51 S, 172° 38 E and 41° 50 S, 172° 50 E respectively) , were studied. In general, the cation exchange properties, element concentrations, and mineral compositions of the sediments show little variation between samples from each lake. However, some nutrient concentrations, notably exchangeable calcium, magnesium, and potassium, and total nitrogen and sulphur, are higher in sediments from weed beds than in sediments underlying deeper water; iron and manganese concentrations tend to show the opposite trend. Concentrations of exchangeable calcium and total nitrogen, sulphur, manganese, and iron generally decrease down the sediment profiles from the sediment/water interface. Differences between lakes, notably higher concentrations of illite and of the elements potassium, aluminium, titanium, and zirconium, and lower concentrations of calcium in the sediments of Lake Rotoiti than in those from Lake Rotoroa, are probably due mainly to the different geological settings rather than to differences in the diagenetic processes operating within the lakes. Mineralogical analyses indicate that the lake sediments are derived mainly from the valleys of the major inflow rivers rather than from the slopes at the sides of each lake.     

Reflection on the first five years of South Africa’s Acoustic Tracking Array Platform (ATAP): status,challenges and opportunities

The Acoustic Tracking Array Platform (ATAP) is a marine science programme that monitors the movements and migrations of inshore marine animals along the South African coastline. Acoustically tagged animals are monitored by an expanded network of approximately 100 automated data-logging acoustic receivers moored at strategic node sites, from Cape Point in the west to the South Africa–Mozambique border in the east. During five years since its inception, in 2011, the ATAP has achieved outstanding progress in terms of the numbers of animals and the variety of species tagged. To date, the ATAP has yielded over 2.6 million detections from more than 700 acoustically tagged animals, representing 27 different species from 20 families, including the African penguin Spheniscus demersus, fishery-at-risk species (e.g. dusky kob Argyrosomus japonicus) and iconic elasmobranchs (e.g. white shark Carcharodon carcharias). Following a period of considerable equipment loss in 2014, refinement of the receiver network was required and the deeper receivers at each site were decommissioned without influencing the integrity of the nationwide array. The platform, managed by the South African Institute for Aquatic Biodiversity, ultimately represents a low-cost method of collecting long-term data that currently benefits approximately 25 researchers from 14 organisations. Case studies are presented to expose the opportunities provided by the ATAP, which will undoubtedly yield new discoveries and provide a greater understanding of the movement patterns and migrations of a wide variety of inshore marine and estuary-associated species.     

Growth of vertically segmented normal faults

The geometry and evolution of vertically segmented normal faults, with dip separations of < ca 11.5 m have been studied in a coastal outcrop of finely bedded Cretaceous chalk at Flamborough Head, U.K. Fault trace segments are separated by both contractional and extensional offsets which have step, overlap or bend geometries. The location of fault trace offsets is strongly controlled by lithology occurring at either thin (ca 1 mm-8 cm) and mechanically weak marl layers or partings between chalk units. Fault segmentation occurred during either fault nucleation within, or propagation through, the strongly anisotropic lithological sequence. An inverse relationship between fault displacement and number of offsets per length of fault trace reflects the progressive destruction of offsets during fault growth. The preservation of fault offsets is therefore dependent on offset width and fault displacement. Fault rock, comprising gouge and chalk breccia, may vary in thickness by 1.5–2.0 orders of magnitude on individual fault traces. Strongly heterogeneous fault rock distributions are most common on small faults (< 10 cm displacement) and are produced mainly by destruction of fault offsets. Shearing of fault rock with increasing displacement gives rise to a more homogeneous fault rock distribution on large faults at the outcrop scale.