Long-range weather forecasts through numerical and empirical methods

There has been much improvement in numerical weather prediction since L.F. Richardson (1922, Weather Prediction by Numerical Process, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 236) wrote his famous book. NWP has primarily been successful in improving day-by-day forecasts starting from an observed detailed Initial Condition (IC) out to about a week. The purpose of this paper is to discuss first the state of the art in long-range NWP by presenting results of a new large numerical experiment (named DERF90; from Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting in 1990 out to 90 days) conducted at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) during the summer and autumn of 1990 (Section 2). One hundred and twenty eight 90-day global forecasts were made from successive daily initial conditions (IC), thus giving us ample opportunity to assess skill of forecasts at lead times beyond 1 week.We then move on to define the notion of a limit of predictability (LOP), and following a procedure by Lorenz (1982), give a numerical estimate of the LOP using the DERF90 data set. We then produce a list of reasons, as to why this estimate (LOP = 18 days) should not be taken too literally. In particular, we argue that the LOP varies as a function of the flow itself, and it would be (much) larger if we had, as we will ultimately, a coupled ocean-atmosphere model for making long-lead forecasts. Last, but not least, we present results of empirical forecasts that point to modest but significant skill well beyond the traditional LOP (a few weeks).A specific recent example of empirical forecasting is discussed. Through Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), experimental forecasts are being made for the United States surface temperatures at lead times of several seasons. While modest, the skill is significant in that it defies the existence or a 3-week LOP, and so demonstrates the potential for model improvements.     

中国超级杂交稻在孟印缅地区的生产潜力模拟

水稻是孟加拉国、印度和缅甸最重要的粮食作物,研究中国超级杂交稻对孟印缅地区的水稻增产潜力,对于保障孟中印缅经济走廊的粮食安全与区域可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。在全面收集孟印缅地区气候、土壤、田间管理信息和农业统计数据的基础上,结合中国籼型杂交稻F优498和丰两优4号的品种信息和区试数据,通过EPIC模型模拟了1996-2005年雨季孟印缅3国在不同情景下的超级稻生产潜力,并分析了孟印缅地区主要胁迫因子对超级稻单产潜力的影响。研究表明：① 中国超级杂交稻在孟印缅地区2000年的灌溉和施肥水平下单产潜力为10.22 t/ha,在充分灌溉且合理施肥的水平下单产潜力为11.33 t/ha。② 孟印缅地区雨季稻的增产空间达22771万t,水稻增产潜力最大的地区是印度的恒河平原东部、印度半岛东南沿海与缅甸的伊洛瓦底三角洲。③ 印度德干高原东北部、西南部和印度大平原西北部需要进一步完善灌溉设备以满足高产水稻用水,缅甸的中南部平原地区和印度的东北地区则需要增施氮肥以满足高产水稻用肥。     

Imbalance in the carbonate budget of surficial sediments in the North Atlantic Ocean: variations over the last millenium?

Fluxes contributing to the particulate carbonate system in deep-sea sediments were investigated at the BENGAL site in the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (Northeast Atlantic). Deposition fluxes were estimated using sediment traps at a nominal depth of 3000 m and amounted to 0.37±0.1 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹. Dissolution of carbonate was determined using flux of total alkalinity from in situ benthic chambers, is 0.4±0.1 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹. Burial of carbonate was calculated from data on the carbonate content of the sediment and sedimentation rates from a model age based on ¹⁴C dating on foraminifera (0.66±0.1 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹). Burial plus dissolution was three times larger than particle deposition flux which indicates that steady-state is not achieved in these sediments. Mass balances for other components (BSi, ²¹⁰Pb), and calculations of the focusing factor using ²³⁰Th, show that lateral inputs play only a minor role in this imbalance. Decadal variations of annual particle fluxes are also within the uncertainty of our average. Long-term change in dissolution may contribute to the imbalance, but can not be the main reason because burial alone is greater than the input flux. The observed imbalance is thus the consequence of a large change of carbonate input flux which has occured in the recent past. A box model is used to check the response time of the solid carbonate system in these sediments and the time to reach a new steady-state is in the order of 3 kyr. Thus it is likely that the system has been perturbed recently and that large dissolution and burial rates reflect the previously larger particulate carbonate deposition rates. We estimate that particulate carbonate fluxes have certainly decreased by a factor of at least 3 and that this change has occurred during the last few centuries.     

Comparison of the LEW88516 and ALHA77005 martian meteorites: Similar but distinct

Abstract By mineral and bulk compositions, the Lewis Cliff (LEW) 88516 meteorite is quite similar to the ALHA77005 martian meteorite. These two meteorites are not paired because their mineral compositions are distinct, they were found 500 km apart in ice fields with different sources for meteorites, and their terrestrial residence ages are different. Minerals in LEW88516 include: olivine, pyroxenes (low- and high-Ca), and maskelynite (after plagioclase); and the minor minerals chromite, whitlockite, ilmenite, and pyrrhotite. Mineral grains in LEW88516 range up to a few mm. Texturally, the meteorite is complex, with regions of olivine and chromite poikilitically enclosed in pyroxene, regions of interstitial basaltic texture, and glass-rich (shock) veinlets. Olivine compositions range from Fo₆₄ to Fo₇₀, (avg. Fo₆₇), more ferroan and with more variation than in ALHA77005 (Fo₆₉ to Fo₇₃). Pyroxene compositions fall between En₇₇Wo₄ and En₆₅Wo₁₅ and in clusters near En₆₃Wo₉ and En₅₃Wo₃₃, on average more magnesian and with more variation than in ALHA77005. Shock features in LEW88516 range from weak deformation through complete melting. Bulk chemical analyses by modal recombination of electron microprobe analyses, instrumental neutron activation, and radiochemical neutron activation confirm that LEW88516 is more closely related to ALHA77005 than to other known martian meteorites. Key element abundance ratios are typical of martian meteorites, as is its non-chondritic rare earth pattern. Differences between the chemical compositions of LEW88516 and ALHA77005 are consistent with slight differences in the proportions of their constituent minerals and not from fundamental petrogenetic differences. Noble gas abundances in LEW88516, like those in ALHA77005, show modest excesses of ⁴⁰Ar and ¹²⁹Xe from trapped (shock-implanted) gas. As with other ALHA77005 and the shergottite martian meteorites (except EETA79001), noble gas isotope abundances in LEW88516 are consistent with exposure to cosmic rays for 2.5–3 Ma. The absence of substantial effects of shielding from cosmic rays suggest LEW88516 spent this time as an object no larger than a few cm in diameter.     

Sediment transport in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

Eight survey cruises in different seasons have been conducted in the Yellow Sea (YS) and East China Sea (ECS) during the period from 2000 to 2008. Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and hydrological data were collected during each cruise. Data analysis showed that total suspended sediment mass was approximately 0.18 × 10⁹ tons in the surveyed area during spring and autumn seasons. Highly turbid waters were found in the shallow waters between the Subei coast, the Changjiang estuary and the Zhejiang coast with seasonal variations.     

Nature and origins of internal sediments in Jurassic limestones of Burgundy (Franc) and Fnoud (Algeria)

ABSTRACT Numerous hard-grounds and palaeo-emersion surfaces in Middle Jurassic grainstones of Burgundy (France) and Upper Jurassic micritic limestones of the Fnoud region (Algeria) exhibit a variety of diagenetic cements and internal sediments. Four types of internal sediments have been defined, each being the product of a particular environment: Type 1, unsorted microbioclastic wackestone characterizes submarine hard-grounds; Type 2, pelleted grainstone with inverse graded bedding occurs in microcaverns developed in palaeobeach rocks; Type 3, centrifugal micrite seems to characterize relatively dry supratidal substrates; Type 4, crystal silt is associated with early sparitic cements and dissolution phenomena indicating the influence of non-marine waters. Within a given pore space, a centripetal succession of various cements and internal sediments seems to reflect the lateral evolution of the tidal-flat or beach; at any given pore space interstitial waters have evolved progressively as the intertidal zone advanced or receded. Thus, internal sediments and related early diagenetic phenomena are valid criteria both for particular environments and for the general evolution of the coastal plain. Finally, although internal sediments may accumulate both within grainstones (Burgundy) and mudstone substrates (Fnoud), these textural differences may influence the type and frequency of internal sedimentation. RESUME De multiples ciments diagénétiques et sédiments internes précoces ont été reconnus dans les nombreuses surfaces durcies et surfaces d'émersion des calcaires grainstones du Jurassique moyen de Bourgogne (France) et des calcaires micritiques de la région des Fnoud (Algérie). Quatre types principaux de sédiments internes ont été définis, chacun étant le produit d'un milieu diagénétique particulier; Le Type 1 est un wackestone rnicrobioclastique non classé qui caractérise les surfaces durcies sousmarines; Le Type 2 est un micrograinstone à pellets avec granoclassement inverse qui existe dans les microcavernes developpées dans les paléo-grés de plage; Le Type 3 est une micrite centrifuge qui se developpe dans des conditions supratidales; Le Type 4 consiste en un silt à débris de cristaux, associé aux ciments sparitiques précoces et aux phénomènes de dissolution caractérisant ainsi l'influence d'eaux non marines. Dans un pore donné, la succession centripète entre ciment et sédiments internes reflète I'evolution latérale de la plaine côtière ou de la plage suivant le régime sédimentaire. Dans cet espace poreux, les eaux intersticielles evoluent progressivement au fur et à mesure que la zone intertidale s'accro?t ou se réduit. Ainsi les sédiments internes et les phénomenes diagénétiqués associes constituent de bons critères pour la detérmination d'un environnement particulier et pour retracer I'évolution générale de la plaine côtiere. Enfin, bien que les sediments internes se déposent au sein de calcaires grainstones (Bougogne) ou de calcaires mudstones (Fnoud), les différences texturales du sédiment hôte peuvent influencer sur le type et la fréquence de la sédimentation interne.     

Thermodynamic controls on element partitioning between titanomagnetite and andesitic–dacitic silicate melts

Titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of Mg, Mn, Al, Ti, Sc, V, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ga, Zr, Nb, Mo, Hf and Ta was investigated experimentally as a function of oxygen fugacity (fO₂) and temperature (T) in an andesitic–dacitic bulk-chemical compositional range. In these bulk systems, at constant T, there are strong increases in the titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of the divalent cations (Mg²⁺, Mn²⁺, Co²⁺, Ni²⁺, Zn²⁺) and Cu²⁺/Cu⁺ with increasing fO₂ between 0.2 and 3.7 log units above the fayalite–magnetite–quartz buffer. This is attributed to a coupling between magnetite crystallisation and melt composition. Although melt structure has been invoked to explain the patterns of mineral–melt partitioning of divalent cations, a more rigorous justification of magnetite–melt partitioning can be derived from thermodynamic principles, which accounts for much of the supposed influence ascribed to melt structure. The presence of magnetite-rich spinel in equilibrium with melt over a range of fO₂ implies a reciprocal relationship between a(Fe²⁺O) and a(Fe³⁺O_1.5) in the melt. We show that this relationship accounts for the observed dependence of titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of divalent cations with fO₂ in magnetite-rich spinel. As a result of this, titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of divalent cations is indirectly sensitive to changes in fO₂ in silicic, but less so in mafic bulk systems.