Climate-induced hydrological impacts on the groundwater system of the Pingtung Plain,Taiwan

The Pingtung Plain is one of the most important groundwater-resource areas in southwestern Taiwan. The overexploitation of groundwater in the last two decades has led to serious deterioration in the quantity and quality of groundwater resources in this area. Furthermore, the manifestation of climate change tends to induce the instability of surface-water resources and strengthen the importance of the groundwater resources. Southwestern Taiwan in particular shows decreasing tendencies in both the annual amount of precipitation and annual precipitation days. To effectively manage the groundwater resources of the Pingtung Plain, a numerical modeling approach is adopted to investigate the response of the groundwater system to climate variability. A hydrogeological model is constructed based on the information from geology, hydrogeology, and geochemistry. Applying the linear regression model of precipitation to the next two decades, the modeling result shows that the lowering water level in the proximal fan raises an alarm regarding the decrease of available groundwater in the stress of climate change, and the enlargement of the low-groundwater-level area on the coast signals the deterioration of water quantity and quality in the future. Suitable strategies for water-resource management in response to hydrological impacts of future climatic change are imperative.

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Resumen La llanura Pingtung constituye uno de los recursos de aguas subterráneas más importantes en el Suroeste de Taiwan. La sobreexplotación de las aguas subterráneas en las dos últimas décadas ha dado lugar a un serio deterioro de la calidad y la cantidad de los recursos subterráneos en esta área. En particular el Suroeste de Taiwan muestra una tendencia decreciente en las cantidades de precipitación y en los días anuales de lluvia. Para gestionar de forma efectiva los recursos subterráneos en la Llanura Pingtung, se ha utilizado un modelo numérico aproximado para investigar la respuesta de las aguas subterráneas a la variabilidad climática. Un modelo hidrogeológico se construye a partir de la información geológica, hidrogeológica y geoquímica. Aplicando el modelo de regresión linear de la precipitación para las próximas dos décadas, el modelo resultante muestra que el descenso de los niveles de agua en el abanico proximal es alarmante, observándose el descenso del agua subterránea disponible en la presión del cambio climático, y el crecimiento del área de descensos de niveles de agua subterránea en la costa apunta a un deterioro de la cantidad y calidad del agua subterránea en el futuro. Se imponen pues, estrategias apropiadas para la gestión de los recursos hídricos en respuesta a los impactos hidrológicos del futuro cambio climático.

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Résumé La plaine de Pingtung est l’une des plus importantes zones de ressource en eau souterraine du Sud-Ouest de Taiwan. La surexploitation de l’eau souterraine durant les deux dernières décennies a conduit à une sérieuse détérioration de la quantité et de la qualité des ressources en eau souterraine dans cette zone. De plus, la manifestation des changements climatiques tend à induire une instabilité des ressources en eau souterraine et renforce l’importance des ressources en eau souterraine. Le Sud-Ouest de Taiwan montre, en particulier, des précipitations annuelles et des nombres annuels de jour de pluie à la baisse. Pour gérer efficacement les ressources en eau souterraine de la Plaine de Pingtung, une approche par modélisation numérique est adoptée pour étudier la réponse du système hydrogéologique aux variabilités climatiques. La construction du modèle hydrogéologique est basée sur les informations géologiques, hydrogéologiques et géochimiques. En appliquant le modèle de régression linéaire aux précipitations pour les deux prochaines décades, le résultat de la modélisation montre que la baisse du niveau d’eau atteint un état alarmant au regard de la décroissance des eaux souterraines disponibles et la contrainte du changement climatique, tandis que l’extension de la zone de niveau bas des eaux souterraines à la cote indique une détérioration de la quantité et de la qualité de l’eau dans le futur. Des stratégies convenables pour la gestion des ressources en eau souterraine en réponse aux impacts hydrologiques de futurs changements climatiques sont impératifs.

     

ISEE: Internet‐based Simulation for Earthquake Engineering—Part I: Database approach

An Internet‐based framework, named Internet‐based Simulation for Earthquake Engineering (ISEE) was developed to facilitate collaborative earthquake engineering experiments performed by multiple laboratories in a network environment. One of the approaches in the ISEE framework, named Database Approach, offers an easy way to perform multi‐site networked collaborative pseudo‐dynamic experiments. The Database Approach uses the Structured Query Language (SQL), a common and standardized computer language used in database management systems, for inter‐laboratory communications. Using the SQL protocol, it is easy to monitor the experiments' progress, access the data, as well as develop additional programs to expand the functions for a networked experiment. This approach offers consistency and durability of selected experimental data both during and after experiments. Two networked pseudo‐dynamic experiments were conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and expansibility of the Database Approach in ISEE. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The frequency, intensity, and diurnal cycle of precipitation in surface and satellite observations over low- and mid-latitudes

Global precipitation data sets with high spatial and temporal resolution are needed for many applications, but they were unavailable before the recent creation of several such satellite products. Here, we evaluate four different satellite data sets of hourly or 3-hourly precipitation (namely CMORPH, PERSIANN, TRMM 3B42 and a microwave-only product referred to as MI) by comparing the spatial patterns in seasonal mean precipitation amount, daily precipitation frequency and intensity, and the diurnal and semidiurnal cycles among them and with surface synoptic weather reports. We found that these high-resolution products show spatial patterns in seasonal mean precipitation amount comparable to other monthly products for the low- and mid-latitudes, and the mean daily precipitation frequency and intensity maps are similar among these pure satellite-based precipitation data sets and consistent with the frequency derived using weather reports over land. The satellite data show that spatial variations in mean precipitation amount come largely from precipitation frequency rather than intensity, and that the use of satellite infrared (IR) observations to improve sampling does not change the mean frequency, intensity and the diurnal cycle significantly. Consistent with previous studies, the satellite data show that sub-daily variations in precipitation are dominated by the 24-h cycle, which has an afternoon–evening maximum and mean-to-peak amplitude of 30–100% of the daily mean in precipitation amount over most land areas during summer. Over most oceans, the 24-h harmonic has a peak from midnight to early morning with an amplitude of 10–30% during both winter and summer. These diurnal results are broadly consistent with those based on the weather reports, although the time of maximum in the satellite precipitation is a few hours later (especially for TRMM and PERSIANN) than that in the surface observations over most land and ocean, and it is closer to the phase of showery precipitation from the weather reports. The TRMM and PERSIANN precipitation shows a spatially coherent time of maximum around 0300–0600 local solar time (LST) for a weak (amplitude <20%) semi-diurnal (12-h) cycle over most mid- to high-latitudes, comparable to 0400–0600 LST in the surface data. The satellite data also confirm the notion that the diurnal cycle of precipitation amount comes mostly from its frequency rather than its intensity over most low and mid-latitudes, with the intensity has only about half of the strength of the diurnal cycle in the frequency and amount. The results suggest that these relatively new precipitation products can be useful for many applications.     

On estimating the earthquake-induced changes in hydrogeological properties of the Choshuishi Alluvial Fan, Taiwan

The hydrological response of the Choshuishi alluvial fan to the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake shows that the earthquake did impact the aquifer. The possible earthquake-induced changes in hydrogeological properties were investigated in this study. First, contour maps of the hydrologic anomaly, seismic factors, and vertical ground-surface displacement were compared qualitatively. Bulls eye patterns were found on the contour maps of hydraulic conductivity, coseismic groundwater-level change and vertical ground-surface displacement but did not occur with other seismic factors. The more permeable zones of the aquifer were found to coincide with the locations of greater vertical ground-surface displacement and coseismic groundwater-level change in the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. This indicates that the change of the hydrogeologic properties of Choshuishi alluvial fan due to the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake may have mainly occurred in the highly permeable zones. Fractal, cross semivariogram and cross correlogram analyses were performed to quantitatively measure the persistency, variability and similarity, respectively, of spatial hydrologic response, seismic factors and hydraulic conductivity. The groundwater-level change, earthquake intensity, and vertical ground-surface displacement were found to show antipersistent tendencies while other factors showed the opposite. Higher correlations were found between hydraulic conductivity and groundwater-level change in aquifers 2–1 and 2–2, and between hydraulic conductivity and vertical ground-surface displacement in aquifer 3. Changes in porosities and hydraulic conductivity were evaluated in the main aquifers of the Choshuishi alluvial fan based on the data of hydrologic anomaly and the vertical ground-surface displacement. While both approaches show that the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake has impacted the Choshuishi alluvial fan by reducing its porosity and hydraulic conductivity, these changes were not significant relative to natural variation in hydraulic conductivity.This revised version was published in May 2005 with correction to the rubric.     

Super-ensemble of three RCMs for climate projection over East Asia and Taiwan

Runs of three regional climate models (RCMs) dynamically downscaling the outputs of atmosphere?Cocean coupling general circulation models (AOGCMs) are studied. These RCMs are NCAR-MM5, NCEP-RSM (Regional Spectral Model), and Purdue-PRM (Purdue Regional Model). A useful approach is developed to compare the variability, error, and spatial distribution of model-simulated results with respect to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets over East Asia and seven sub-regions during the 1990s. The results show that NCEP-RSM outperforms the other two in meeting criteria selected on evaluating the model performance. Furthermore, three super-ensemble approaches are tested on merging RCMs?? outputs. The inverse of the square error summation (ISES) method is selected as a suitable method with a generally good performance during the verification period. The projected future climate changes by ISES indicate larger temperature increases over high-latitude continent and smaller over low-latitude maritime areas. Rainfall will increase in summer over the central simulation domain, i.e. the eastern China, but decrease in winter, which are clearly linked to the variation in the synoptic airflows. Also, a more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events than what happened in the 1990s is projected. The projection over Taiwan suggests strong warming in summer, followed by autumn, winter, and spring. The interaction between the synoptic flow and the local terrain affects significantly the changes in precipitation. In general, larger change of the variability of rainfall will be over areas with lesser rainfall in the future, while lesser change will be over areas with more projected rainfall.     

Comparison of SPT-N-based analysis methods in evaluation of liquefaction potential during the 1999 Chi-chi earthquake in Taiwan

SPT-N-based methods have been adopted for liquefaction assessment of soils during earthquakes for decades. However, there has not been a consistent way of assessing the accuracy and applicability of these methods. The Chi-chi earthquake of 1999, which has been the most serious ground shaking in Taiwan within the century, caused extensive liquefactions in mid-west alluvial deposits of the island. This paper assesses the prediction accuracy of several SPT-N-based methods using liquefaction and non-liquefaction incidents observed during the earthquake. A sensitivity study on commonly adopted parameters shows that the SPT blow count and peak ground acceleration are most sensitive in computing liquefaction potential. By comparing the error in predicting liquefaction and non-liquefaction incidents, this study concludes that Tokimatsu and Yoshimi’s method is more accurate than the other methods. However, the differences between prediction errors of various methods are minimal, indicating all of the methods examined are applicable for the 1999 earthquake in Taiwan.     

Wave refraction–diffraction effect in the wind wave model WWM

Based on the extended mild-slope equation, the wind wave model (WWM; Hsu et al., 2005) is modified to account for wave refraction, diffraction and reflection for wind waves propagating over a rapidly varying seabed in the presence of current. The combined effect of the higher-order bottom effect terms is incorporated into the wave action balance equation through the correction of the wavenumber and propagation velocities using a refraction–diffraction correction parameter. The relative importance of additional terms including higher-order bottom components, the wave–bottom interaction source term and wave–current interaction that influence the refraction–diffraction correction parameter is discussed. The applicability of the proposed model to calculate a wave transformation over an elliptic shoal, a series of parallel submerged breakwater induced Bragg scattering and wave–current interaction is evaluated. Numerical results show that the present model provides better predictions of the wave amplitude as compared with the phase-decoupled model of Holthuijsen et al. (2003).     

地球各圈层相互作用的大地测量研究和检测

大地测量资料，包括在球表面运动，地球引力场及地球整体自转运动的观测资料，是研究地球各圈层相互作用的重要地表约束，探讨了大地测量用于这一研究领域中的几个重要科学前沿问题。