A performance‐based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatiotemporal trends of aridity index in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran

The spatiotemporal trends of aridity index in the arid and semi-arid regions of Iran in 1966–2005 were investigated using the Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen’s slope estimator. The results of the analysis showed negative trends in annual aridity index at 55 % of the stations, while just one site had a statistically significant (α?=?0.1) negative trend. Furthermore, the positive trends in the annual aridity index series were significant at the 95 % confidence level at Bushehr and Isfahan stations. The significant negative trend in the annual aridity index was obtained over Mashhad at the rate of ?0.004. In the seasonal series, the negative trends in the spring and winter aridity index were larger compared with those in the other seasonal series. A noticeable decrease in the winter aridity index series was observed mostly in the southeast of the study area. In the summer and autumn aridity index, two significant positive trends were found.     

Investigation of Hydrous Pyrolysis on Type-II Kerogen-bearing Source Rocks from Iran and its Application in Geochemical and Kinetic Analyses of Hydrocarbon Products

Hydrous pyrolysis (HP) practiced on type-II kerogen-bearing oil shale samples from the Sargelu Formation in the Ghali-Kuh Area, western Iran, using a specially designed apparatus was performed at different temperatures (250–350°C), with hydrocarbon generation evaluated at each temperature. For comparison, the samples subjected to Rock-Eval pyrolysis before proceeding to HP resulted in Tmax = 418°C, HI = 102, and TOC = 4.33%, indicating immaturity and hence remarkable hydrocarbon (especially oil) generation potential, making them appropriate for HP. Moreover, the samples were deposited in a low-energy reductive marine environment, with maximum oil and gas generation (739 mg and 348 mg out of 50 g of rock sample, respectively) observed at 330°C and 350°C, respectively. The oil generated at 330°C was subjected to gas chromatography (GC) and isotopic analyses to assess hydrocarbon quality and composition. The hydrocarbon generation data was devised to estimate kinetic indices of the Arrhenius equation and to investigate the gas–oil ratio (GOR) and overall conversion yield. Based on the producible hydrocarbon quantity and quality, the findings contribute to the economic assessment of oil shales across the study area. The developed kinetic model indicates the history of hydrocarbon generation and organic matter (OM) maturity.     

Coupled and splitting bedload sediment transport models based on a modified flux-wave approach

Numerical modeling of free-surface flow over a mobile bed with predominantly bedload sediment transport can be done by solving the shallow water and Exner equations using coupled and splitting approaches.The coupled method uses a coupling of the governing equations at the same time step leading to a non-conservative solution.The splitting method solves the Exner and the shallow water equations in a separate manner,and is only capable of modeling weak free-surface and bedload interactions.In the current study,an extended version of a Godunov-type wave propagation algorithm is presented for modeling of morphodynamic systems using both coupled and splitting approaches.In the introduced coupled method the entire morphodynamic system is solved in the form of a conservation law.For the splitting technique,a new wave Riemann decomposition is defined which enables the scheme to be utilized for mild and strong interactions.To consider the bedload sediment discharge within the Exner equation,the Smart and Meyer-Peter&Müller formulae are used.It was found that the coupled solution gives accurate predictions for all investigated flow regimes including propagation over a dry-state using a Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy(CFL)number equal to 0.6.Furthermore,the splitting method was able to model all flow regimes with a lower CFL number of 0.3.     

Hazards of mechanized tunnel excavation in H<Subscript>2</Subscript>S bearing ground in Aspar tunnel,Iran

Occurrence of hydrogen sulfide gas (H₂S) is one of the most important engineering geological hazards during tunneling. Its hazards and consequent challenges are very difficult and costly to solve. During site investigation, one of the tasks for engineering geologists is prediction and evaluation of the risk of H₂S gas in the underground spaces. In this study, water conveyance tunnel of Aspar, which was excavated in H₂S-bearing environments, is discussed. The tunnel is excavated in the hydrocarbon formations. Applied experiments suggest that geological formations pertaining to hydrocarbon resources are crucial in formation and reservation of H₂S gas. This paper briefly discusses hazards and geological sources of H₂S, as well as remedial measures for decreasing the risks and problems in excavation of the tunnel. To predict the risk of H₂S gas in the underground spaces, it is possible to use some precursors such as: sulfur springs, organic traces, organic argillaceous rocks, exposure of H₂S odor from fresh surface of rock and smell of H₂S during boreholes drilling. Controlling the inflow of groundwater into the excavation, diluting the concentration of H₂S, training the personnel and utilization of some proper safety equipment have been used to mitigate risks and problems in tunnel excavation.     

Adsorption of Thallium(I) Ions Using Eucalyptus Leaves Powder

Using batch method, the adsorption of thallium(I) ions from aqueous solutions on eucalyptus leaves powder, as a low cost adsorbent, was studied. The effect of various modification of considered adsorbent on the adsorption percentage of Tl(I) is an important feature of this study. The results showed that the unmodified and acidic modified adsorbent are the poor adsorbents for the Tl(I) ions while basic modified adsorbent is a suitable adsorbent. Also, the effect of some experimental conditions such as solution initial pH, agitation speed, contact time, sorbent dosage, temperature, particle size, and thallium initial concentration was studied. The results showed that the adsorption percentage depends on the conditions and the process is strongly pH‐dependent. The satisfactory adsorption percentage of Tl(I) ions, 81.5%, obtained at 25 ± 1°C. The equilibrium data agreed fairly better with Langmuir isotherm than Freundlich and Temkin models. The value of q_m that was obtained by extrapolation method is 80.65 mg g^?1. Separation factor values, R_L, showed that eucalyptus leaves powder is favorable for the sorption of Tl(I). The negative values of ΔH⁰ and ΔS⁰ showed that the Tl(I) sorption is an exothermic process and along with decrease of randomness at the solid–solution interface during sorption, respectively.     

Modelling flow and sediment trapping upstream and within grass buffer strips

Grass buffer strips impact the hydrology of flow and consequently the fate of sediment. A complex process‐based model is developed to predict flow characteristics as well as sediment deposition and transport upstream, and within grass strips. The model is capable of estimating the proportion and amount of different sediment particle size classes in the outflow. The modified Green–Ampt equation was used to simulate infiltration. Gradually varied flow and kinematic wave approximation were used to model flow characteristics upstream and within grass strips. The GUEST model approach has been modified in order to use its basic approaches in sediment transport module in grass strips. Model predictions agree well with the results of two sets of controlled experiments. The bias, coefficient of model efficiency and the root mean squared error of the modelled efficiency of grass strips in reducing sediment concentration were 0.93–0.99, 0.58–0.99 and 8.9–12.7, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that the initial soil moisture and flow rate are the most sensitive parameters in predicting runoff loss. Increasing the slope steepness and flow rate dramatically decreases the efficiency of grass strips in reducing sediment concentration and mass. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A dynamic prediction model for time-to-peak

A simplified empirical equation is developed for widespread prediction of dynamic catchment response time. This model allows for time-to-peak prediction to evolve from static, lumped models, thereby providing a single value for any storm within a given catchment, using a single set of input parameters, that can be applied to a dynamic model, thus accounting for the variability between storm sizes and catchment moisture conditions. These dynamic prediction methods are translated to North America for the first time. This allows the concepts and prediction methods for catchment response time prediction previously established for the United Kingdom (UK), to be translated to a simple empirical equation for use in North America, through the use of selected study areas in Canada and the United States. This reconfigured model is statistically successful in both the UK and North America and allows for a straightforward implementation of dynamic time-to-peak prediction. Further, the reconfigured model introduces the use of a runoff coefficient (R_c) to encompass historical catchment wetness, increasing the ease of incorporating antecedent moisture condition into predictions.