Quantitative research on drought loss sensitivity of summer maize based on AquaCrop model

Natural Hazards - In this study, the growth periods of summer maize were divided into seedling, booting and flowering-grain stage. Based on the simulation results of AquaCrop model, the drought...     

方差-协方差-分量估计

本文从间接平差出发推导了含有检验矩阵的方差-协方差-分量估计的特征方程,并详细讨论了估值的统计特性。作为协方差估计的特例,对方差估计的若干公式进行了探讨,指出了它们之间的相互联系及各自的统计特性。最后给出了适合条件平差的方羞-协方差-分量估计公式。     

A Case study of a snowstorm at the Great Wall Station,Antarctica

A case of a snowstorm at the Great Wall Station was studied using data of NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) analysis, in situ observations and surface weather charts. The storm occurred on August 29th,2006, and brought high winds and poor horizontal visibility to the region.It was found that the storm occurred under the synoptic situation of a high in the south and a low in the north. A low-level easterly jet from the Antarctic continent significantly decreased the air temperature and humidity.Warm air advection at high level brought sufficient vapor from lower latitudes for the snowstorm to develop.The dynamic factors relating to strong snowfall and even the developmentof a snowstorm were deep cyclonic vorticity at middle and low levels,the configuration of divergence at high level and convergence at low level, and strong verticaluplift. There was an inversion layer in the low-level atmosphere during the later phase of the storm.This vertical structure of cold air at low levels and warm air at high levels may have been important to the longevity of the snowstorm.     

Characteristics of pegmatoidal granite exposed near Bayalan,Ajmer district,Rajasthan

The study involves the characterization of pegmatoidal granite, southeast of Beawar, Ajmer district, Rajasthan. Earlier researchers had described this granite as part of the BGC, basement to the Bhim Group of the Delhi Super Group rocks. However, the present study indicates that it is younger than the rocks of Bhim Group of South Delhi Fold Belt, into which it is intrusive. The intrusion is structurally controlled and the outcrop pattern is phacolithic. The granite had intruded post-D₂ deformation of the Delhi orogeny along the axial planes of D₂ folds. The intrusion has also resulted in the formation of a contact aureole about the calc gneisses.     

ARMA order model detection using minimum of Kurtosis: application on seismic data

The objective of this study is to find the order and coefficients of non-low-phase causal filters for ARMA (auto regressive moving average) filter model, using the Kurtosis minimization criterion. This method is based on the Kurtosis calculation of the treated sample at the input level and its identification at the output of the ARMA model. For this purpose, the order and coefficients of the AR (auto regressive) part are identified using the Yule-Walker algorithm at order two and then extended to order four. To obtain the MA (moving average) part, the AR components are calculated at first from the ARMA filter by deconvolution. Then, spectrally equivalent and minimum phase (SEMP) MA filter is identified using the Durbin algorithm at second and fourth order. Finally, the correct filter is found when the Kurtosis value of the output ARMA filter reconstituted is the closest to the Kurtosis of introduced signal. The proposed method is then tested on simulated processes and applied to real seismic data to perform blind deconvolution and obtain the reflectivity coefficients of subsoil studied.     

A low-dimensional subsurface model for saturated and unsaturated flow processes: ability to address heterogeneity

A low-dimensional model that describes both saturated and unsaturated flow processes in a single equation is presented. Subsurface flow processes in the groundwater, the vadose zone, and the capillary fringe are accounted for through the computation of aggregated hydrodynamic parameters that result from the integration of the governing flow equations from the bedrock to the land surface. The three-dimensional subsurface flow dynamics are thus described by a two-dimensional equation, allowing for a drastic reduction of model unknowns and simplification of the model parameterizations. This approach is compared with a full resolution of the Richards equation in different synthetic test cases. Because the model reduction stems from the vertical integration of the flow equations, the test cases all use different configurations of heterogeneity for vertical cross-sections of a soil-aquifer system. The low-dimensional flow model shows strong consistency with results from a complete resolution of the Richards equation for both the water table and fluxes. The proposed approach is therefore well suited to the accurate reproduction of complex subsurface flow processes.     

Stochastic evaluation of simple pairing approaches to reconstruct incomplete rainfall time series

Two-station pairing approaches are routinely used to infill missing information in incomplete rainfall databases. We evaluated the performance of three simple methodologies to reconstruct incomplete time series in presence of variable nonlinear correlation between data pairs. Nonlinearity stems from the statistics describing the marginal peak-over-threshold (POT) values of rainfall events. A Monte Carlo analysis was developed to quantitatively assess expected errors from the use of chronological pairing (CP) with linear and nonlinear regression and frequency pairing (FP). CP is based on a priori selection of regression functions, while FP is based on matching the probability of non-exceedance of an event from one time series with the probability of non-exceedance of a similar event from another time series. We adopted a generalized Pareto (GP) model to describe POT events, and a t-copula algorithm to generate reference nonlinearly correlated pairs of random temporal distributions distributed according with the GP model. The results suggest that the optimal methodology strongly depends on GP statistics. In general, CP seems to provide the lowest errors when GP statistics were similar and correlation became linear; we found that a power-2 function performs well for the selected statistics when the number of missing points is limited. FP outperforms the other methods when POT statistics are different and variables are markedly nonlinearly correlated. Ensemble-based results seem to be supported by the analysis of observed precipitation at two real-world gauge stations.     

Water relation characteristics ofAlhagi sparsifolia and consequences for a sustainable management

Water relation characteristics of the desert legumeAlhagi sparsifolia were investigated during the vegetation period from April to September 1999 in the foreland of Qira oasis at the southern fringe of the Taklamakan Desert, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. The seasonal variation of predawn water potentials and of diurnal water potential indicated thatAlhagi plants were well water supplied over the entire vegetation period. Decreasing values in the summer months were probably attributed to increasing temperatures and irradiation and therefore a higher evapotranspirative demand. Data from pressure-volume analysis confirmed thatAlhagi plants were not drought stressed and xylem sap flow measurements indicated thatAlhagi plants used large amounts of water during the summer months. Flood irrigation had no influence on water relations inAlhagi probably becauseAlhagi plants produced only few fine roots in the upper soil layers. The data indicate thatAlhagi sparsifolia is a drought-avoiding species that utilizes ground water by a deep roots system, which is the key characteristic to adjust the hyper-arid environment. Because growth and survival ofAlhagi depends on ground water supply, it is important that variations of ground water depth are kept to a minimum. The study will provide a theoretical basis for the restoration and management of natural vegetation around oasis in arid regions.