Reconstructing recent sedimentation in two urbanised coastal lagoons (NSW,Australia) using radioisotopes and geochemistry

In this study, we combined grain size and geochemical analyses with radioisotope analysis of lead-210 (²¹⁰Pb), caesium-137 (¹³⁷Cs) and radiocarbon (¹⁴C) ages to reconstruct the sedimentation history of two urbanised coastal lagoons in south-east Australia. Towradgi and Fairy Lagoons were both found to exhibit slow initial sedimentation of less than 1 mm year⁻¹ prior to anthropogenic influences. Land clearing in the catchments increased runoff and erosion in the creeks feeding into the estuaries, and has resulted in progradation of fluvial material into the estuarine systems with a marked increase in sedimentation to between 2 and 7 mm year⁻¹. The upper 20–50 cm of the sediment column in both lagoons contained elevated concentrations of heavy metals such as Pb, Cu, Ni and Zn. This pollution trend was found to be consistent with the history of industrialisation and urbanisation in the region, which expanded rapidly post World War 2. The total metal concentrations were consistent with other urbanised/industrialised estuaries around the world. Despite the fairly disturbed nature of these coastal lagoons, the use of ²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs and ¹⁴C dating in combination with bulk geochemical analyses allowed detailed reconstruction of sedimentation history.     

Geomechanical modelling to assess fault integrity at the CO2CRC Otway Project,Australia

This paper presents the first published 3D geomechanical modelling study of the CO2CRC Otway Project, located in the state of Victoria, Australia. The results of this work contribute to one of the main objectives of the CO2CRC, which is to demonstrate the feasibility of CO₂ storage in a depleted gas reservoir. With this aim in mind, a one-way coupled flow and geomechanics model is presented, with the capability of predicting changes to the in situ stress field caused by changes in reservoir pressure owing to CO₂ production and injection. A parametric study investigating the pore pressures required to reactivate key, reservoir-bounding faults has been conducted, and the results from the numerical simulation and analytical analysis are compared. The numerical simulation indicates that the critical pore fluid pressure to cause fault reactivation is 1.15 times the original pressure as opposed to 1.5 times for the comparable analytical model. Possible reasons for the differences between the numerical and analytical models can be ascribed to the higher degree of complexity incorporated in the numerical model. Heterogeneity in terms of lateral variations of hydrological and mechanical parameters, effect of topography, presence of faults and interaction between cells are considered to be the main sources for the different estimation of critical pore pressure. The numerical model, which incorporates this greater complexity, is able then to better describe the state of stress that acts in the subsurface compared with a simple 1D analytical model. Moreover, the reactivation pressures depend mainly on the state of stress described; therefore we suggest that numerical models be performed when possible.     

Identification of potential sites for aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) in coastal areas using ASR performance estimation methods

Performance of freshwater aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) systems in brackish or saline aquifers is negatively affected by lateral flow, density effects, and/or dispersive mixing, causing ambient groundwater to enter ASR wells during recovery. Two recently published ASR performance estimation methods are applied in a Dutch coastal area, characterized by brackish-to-saline groundwater and locally high lateral-flow velocities. ASR performance of existing systems in the study area show good agreement with the predicted performance using the two methods, provided that local vertical anisotropy ratios are limited (<3). Deviations between actual and predicted ASR performance may originate from simplifications in the conceptual model and uncertainties in the hydrogeological and hydrochemical input. As the estimation methods prove suitable to predict ASR performance, feasibility maps are generated for different scales of ASR to identify favorable ASR sites. Successful small-to-medium-scale ASR varies spatially in the study area, emphasizing the relevance of reliable a priori spatial mapping.     

On the mathematical stability of stratified flow models with local turbulence closure schemes

Occasionally, numerical simulations using local turbulence closure schemes to estimate vertical turbulent fluxes exhibit small-scale oscillations in space, causing the eddy coefficients to vary over several orders of magnitude on short distances. Theoretical developments suggest that these spurious oscillations are essentially due to the way the eddy coefficients depend on the vertical gradient of the model’s variables. An instability criterion is derived based on the assumptions that the artefacts under study are due to the development of small-amplitude, small time- and space-scale perturbations of a smooth solution. The relevance of this criterion is demonstrated by applying it to a series a closure schemes, ranging from the Pacanowski–Philander formulas to the Mellor–Yamada level 2.5 model.     

A microscopic study of synthetic PbS-Rich homologues nPbS-mBi2S3

The PbS-Bi₂S₃ join was studied up to 25 mole percent Bi₂S₃ by electron microscopy and diffraction. It was found that Bi₂S₃ can be incorporated into the PbS matrix by tropochemical twinning, forming isolated {113}_PbS microtwins, or after clustering of these defects, lamellar twinned regions. Only two known mineral members of the homologous series (lillianite Pb₃Bi₂S₆ and heyrowskyite Pb₆Bi₂S₉) were found to be stable in this part of the PbS-Bi₂S₃ join, while irregularly spaced twin bands within these two structures were observed where deviations in the PbS/Bi₂S₃ ratio from 6/1 and 3/1, respectively, took place. No ordered intergrowth members were found between heyrowskyite and lillianite. The difference between the PbS-Bi₂S₃ join and the analogous MnS-Y₂S₃ one was attributed to the lone pair of nonbonded electrons from the Bi³⁺ ions, which tends to concentrate these ions in the vicinity of the twin planes.     

Tectonics and global change - inferences from Late Cenozoic subsidence and uplift patterns in the Atlantic/ Mediterranean region

Quantitative subsidence analysis for a number of rifted basins in the northern Atlantic/Mediterranean region provides evidence for rapid phases of PlioQuaternary subsidence. The observed acceleration in tectonic subsidence occurs after a phase of general quiescence in subsidence in these basins and deviates from predictions of stretching models. The latter indicate a decay of subsidence with time after Mesozoic-Tertiary basin formatioh and a slow tectonic subsidence in Plio-Quaternary times. A possible explanation for the observed patterns of anomalous subsidence could be an increase in the level of intraplate compression in the northern Atlantic region. Intraplate stress changes in the Plio-Quaternary are related to the dynamics of African/ Eurasian collision processes and a reorganization of spreading directions in the AtlAntic, possibly reflecting a plate reorganization of global nature.
It seems that the Plio-Quaternary record reflects a period of increased levels of neotectonic activity, interplaying with periods of (de)glaciation. Stress-induced topography in the onshore parts of continental margins, coupled with the stress-induced subsidence in the offshore deeper parts of the basins, could have contributed to recent phases of uplift in Fennoscandia, augmenting the uplift induced by glacial unloading. Estimates of ice thicknesses are directly inferred from the observed uplift ignoring other driving mechanisms whereas topography plays a crucial role in the dynamics of glaciation. It is, therefore, important to quantdy the interplay of rapid tectonic uplift and subsidence phases with climatic effects during the Plio-Quaternary.     

Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling

Designing decision analytical models requires making choices that can involve a range of trade-offs and interactions between epistemic and ethical considerations. Such choices include determining the complexity of a model and deciding what types of risk will be assessed. Here, we demonstrate how model design choices can involve trade-offs between the epistemic benefits of representational completeness and simplicity, which interact with ethical considerations about fairness and human life. We illustrate this point by focusing on modeling studies that assess flood risks in New Orleans, Louisiana. Addressing the ethical and epistemic implications of model design choices can help clarify the scope of factors necessary to inform ethically sound and economically efficient decision-making.