Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.     

A simplified approach for settlement analysis of single pile and pile groups considering interaction between identical piles in multilayered soils

A new and simple approach is presented to analyze the elastic–plastic behavior of a single pile in layered soils using two models. One model adopts a hyperbolic approach to describe the nonlinear relationship between the shaft shear stresses and the displacement surrounding the pile shaft, and the other model uses a bilinear hardening model to simulate the relationship between the settlement and the mobilized load at the pile end. Furthermore, the interaction between identical piles including the pile shaft and the base interaction in multilayered soils is analyzed. Comparisons of the load–settlement responses for two well-instrumented field tests in multilayered soils are given to demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed simple method. This present paper enables a quick estimate of the settlement of a single pile and a pile group embedded in layered soils, resulting in savings in time and cost.     

Sensitivity experiments on summer monsoon circulation cell in east asia

The East-Asian summer monsoon meridional circulation (SMMC) cell is simulated together with two vigorous rainbands in terms of a primitive-equation model including in itself a variety of diabatic heating, frictional dissipation and moist processes under the condition of mountains available. Results are comparable to observations. Also, performed are experiments with the reduction of water content, and exclusion of the cumulus convective process and mountain effect. Contrast analyses indicate that the cell is strongly sensitive to the condition of the humidity field in the atmosphere, more intensely at 120o than at 100oE, and the presence (absence) of the cumulus convection has considerable effect on the intensification (weakening) of the cell, with the mountain ranges exhibiting more influence upon the cell at 100o than 120oE. This may suggest that a great difference lies in the cause of the cell for the two meridions.     

5—10月全球热带和副热带200hPa多年平均环流的研究(一)——行星尺度环流系统

本文用近13年200hPa高空风资料得到了夏半年(5—10月)逐月平均全球热带风场,发现如下一些主要结果: (1)在亚洲地区对流层上部反气旋存在两个中心;一个在青藏高原上空;一个在伊朗和阿富汗地区。两者的演变不同。伊朗高压的北推和撤退都比青藏高原上的早。北美墨西哥高压的变化在时间上与伊朗高压很相似。 (2)北太平洋中部高空槽(TUTT)出现在5—10月,8月份最强,位置最北;北大西洋中部高空槽出现在5—9月,7—8月最强。 (3)南半球冬季有三个主要的长波脊和长波槽,分别位于大陆以西和以东海区。     

积雨云中微物理过程的数值模拟——(二)阵雨、冰雹、暴雨的个例研究

用文(一)的微物理模式在一维时变动力学框架里模拟了江西阵雨云,75·8暴雨和张家口冰雹云。用实测探空作为输入,计算结果同实测的云降水和雷达回波特征相比,在很多方面相当一致。它展示了暴雨云的持续性和冰雹云的低降水效率等,表明了在这些云底较暖的积雨云中贝吉隆过程对降水作用不大,而暖雨过程则是启动降水的主要环节。     

Influence of “stress reversal” on rock resistivity during loading procedure

The properties of rock resitivity were studied under pressure, particularly with “stress reversal”, a procedure in which the pressure applied was increased and decreased. It was observed that, 1) With pressure increasing, the main feature of resistivity change was increase-steady-decrease for high-saturation rock samples (saturation 70–100%). But the main feature for low-saturation samples was different. 2) In 10 out of 11 cases of “stress reversal” for high-saturation samples the resistivity droped (about 2%). Such drop could explain the anomalies in geoelectricity terms, which are commonly observed before earthquakes in China. 3) It was also observed shortly before rock failure that, a) the resistivity drops more dramatically (about 20%) during “stress reversal” period, which is much more than ordinary drops. b) these drops occurred not only during stress decrease but also during stress increase. c) Resistivity exhibits anisotropy: the resistivity along different directions may differ by 10%. These three features may indicate that the rock is nearing failure, while ordinary resistivity drops are only connected with “stress reversal” and may not mean the imminence of rock failure. 4) Resistivity increase was observed during the “stress reversal” period for low-saturation rock samples. The results mentioned above were explained with the effect of water flowing in and out of the cracks of rock. The temporary factors which yield a reduction of the maximum main stress, may enhence the possibility of earthquake occurrence.     

应力波在波阻抗连续变化的弹性杆中的演化

利用特征线方法数值模拟计算了应力波在截面或弹性模量连续变化的弹性杆中的反射,同时也讨论了应力波脉冲宽度对反射波波形特征的影响,其结果对桩基测量有一定的参考价值。     

非充分灌溉制度设计优化模型

研究了缺水地区冬小麦灌溉问题.分析了作物模型,作物水分影响函数,并以农作物产量最大为目标,提出了非充分灌溉制度优化设计二维动态规划模型和相应的动态规划逐次逼近(DPSA)求解方法.针对山东省临沂市小埠东灌区的实际情况进行研究,求得了冬小麦三个典型年不同供水水平的最优灌溉制度、排水过程及相应产量.实例表明,模型及方法是合理的.     

大气中一类非线性方程的非线性波解及周期的近似计算法

大气中许多模式可化为Ｆ＇＇＝ＡＦ／Ｆ＋Ｂ（ＡＢ≠０）一类非线性常微分方程。利用常微分方程定性理论说明了该方程存在非线性波解，讨论了其周期的计算问题，并求得了波解及其周期的近似表达式。     

Numerical Modelling of the Effects of Ozone on the Summer Atmospheric Circulation

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