Modelling the short-term response of the Greenland ice-sheet to global warming

 A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice flow model has been developed to test the importance of various processes and concepts used for the prediction of the contribution of the Greenland ice-sheet to sea-level rise over the next 350 y (short-term response). The mass balance is modelled by the degree-day method and the energy-balance method. The lithosphere is considered to respond isostatically to a point load and the time evolution of the bedrock follows from a viscous asthenosphere. According to the IPCC-IS92a scenario (with constant aerosols after 1990) the Greenland ice-sheet is likely to cause a global sea level rise of 10.4 cm by 2100 AD. It is shown, however, that the result is sensitive to precise model formulations and that simplifications as used in the sea-level projection in the IPCC-96 report yield less accurate results. Our model results indicate that, on a time scale of a hundred years, including the dynamic response of the ice-sheet yields more mass loss than the fixed response in which changes in geometry are not incorporated. It appears to be important to consider sliding, as well as the fact that climate sensitivity increases for larger perturbations. Variations in predicted sea-level change on a time scale of hundred years depend mostly on the initial state of the ice-sheet. On a time scale of a few hundred years, however, the variability in the predicted melt is dominated by the variability in the climate scenarios. Received: 21 August 1996/Accepted: 12 May 1997     

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

1999年8月11日日全食期间的重力吸引效应研究

对1999年8月11日日全食阴影扫过欧洲期间,设在Annelles,Uccle,Walferdange和Bondy弹簧和超导重力仪的记录进行了分析.为了确定月亮对太阳万有引力可能的遮挡效应的极限,对超导和弹簧重力仪记录进行了比较.同时也对LCR和阿斯卡尼亚重力仪观测结果进行了讨论.结论是如果日食重力吸引效应存在,它应在超导重力仪±1 nm/s2(0.1×10-8ms-2)的观测精度范围之内.研究发现在以上情形下,弹簧和超导重力仪都在它们的精度范围内工作,并且日食引起的异常环境干扰可能使重力信号有重大的改变.     

A Comparison between WCS and OPeNDAP for Making Model Results and Data Products Available through the Internet

Numerical models produce output with a large number of variables, grid cells and time steps. The same applies to algorithms that produce gridded datasets from sparse or abundant raw data. Further use of the resulting data products has been challenging, especially for dissemination outside the institute of origin. Due to the gradually increasing size of data products, simply downloading copies of them is becoming impossible. A gradual transition from traditional download methods to web services is therefore observed. Web services allow for on‐the‐fly access to subsets of data that were hitherto considered as indivisible granules. Here we compare the most mature candidates to serve gridded data through the web: the Open‐source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) and Web Coverage Service (WCS) protocols. In the framework of the new Dutch National Model and Data Centre (NMDC.eu) a distributed data storage has been created by coupling OPeNDAP servers. A WCS service layer is provided for the same data. This allows us to compare OPeNDAP and WCS. Using several use cases, we compare the usability, performance and features of the two protocols.     

Food web flows through a sub-arctic deep-sea benthic community

The benthic food web of the deep Faroe–Shetland Channel (FSC) was modelled by using the linear inverse modelling methodology. The reconstruction of carbon pathways by inverse analysis was based on benthic oxygen uptake rates, biomass data and transfer of labile carbon through the food web as revealed by a pulse-chase experiment. Carbon deposition was estimated at 2.2 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹. Approximately 69% of the deposited carbon was respired by the benthic community with bacteria being responsible for 70% of the total respiration. The major fraction of the labile detritus flux was recycled within the microbial loop leaving merely 2% of the deposited labile phytodetritus available for metazoan consumption. Bacteria assimilated carbon at high efficiency (0.55) but only 24% of bacterial production was grazed by metazoans; the remaining returned to the dissolved organic matter pool due to viral lysis. Refractory detritus was the basal food resource for nematodes covering ∼99% of their carbon requirements. On the contrary, macrofauna seemed to obtain the major part of their metabolic needs from bacteria (49% of macrofaunal consumption). Labile detritus transfer was well-constrained, based on the data from the pulse-chase experiment, but appeared to be of limited importance to the diet of the examined benthic organisms (<1% and 5% of carbon requirements of nematodes and macrofauna respectively). Predation on nematodes was generally low with the exception of sub-surface deposit-feeding polychaetes that obtained 35% of their energy requirements from nematode ingestion. Carnivorous polychaetes also covered 35% of their carbon demand through predation although the preferred prey, in this case, was other macrofaunal animals rather than nematodes. Bacteria and detritus contributed 53% and 12% to the total carbon ingestion of carnivorous polychaetes suggesting a high degree of omnivory among higher consumers in the FSC benthic food web. Overall, this study provided a unique insight into the functioning of a deep-sea benthic community and demonstrated how conventional data can be exploited further when combined with state-of-the-art modelling approaches.     

The effect of titanium and phosphorus on ferric/ferrous ratio in silicate melts: an experimental study

The effect of TiO₂ and P₂O₅ on the ferric/ferrous ratio in silicate melts was investigated in model silicate melts at air conditions in the temperature range 1,400–1,550 °C at 1-atm total pressure. The base composition of the anorthite–diopside eutectic composition was modified with 10 wt % Fe₂O₃ and variable amounts of TiO₂ (up to 30 wt %) or P₂O₅ (up to 20 wt %). Some compositions also contained higher SiO₂ concentrations to compare the role of SiO₂, TiO₂, and P₂O₅ on the Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ ratio. The ferric/ferrous ratio in experimental glasses was analyzed using a wet chemical technique with colorimetric detection of ferrous iron. It is shown that at constant temperature, an increase in SiO₂, TiO₂, and P₂O₅ content results in a decrease in the ferric/ferrous ratio. The effects of TiO₂ and SiO₂ on the Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ ratio was found to be almost identical. In contrast, adding P₂O₅ was found to decrease ferric/ferrous ratio much more effectively than adding silica. The results were compared with the predictions from the published empirical equations forecasting Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ ratio. It was demonstrated that the effects of TiO₂ are minor but that the effects of P₂O₅ should be included in models to better describe ferric/ferrous ratio in phosphorus-bearing silicate melts. Based on our observations, the determination of the prevailing fO₂ in magmas from the Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ ratio in natural glasses using empirical equations published so far is discussed critically.