Precursory slope distress prior to the 2010 Mount Meager landslide,British Columbia

In 2010, the south flank of Mount Meager failed catastrophically, generating the largest (53 ± 3.8 × 10⁶ m³) landslide in Canadian history. We document the slow deformation of the edifice prior to failure using archival historic aerial photographs spanning the period 1948–2006. All photos were processed using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry. We used the SfM products to produce pre-and post-failure geomorphic maps that document changes in the volcanic edifice and Capricorn Glacier at its base. The photographic dataset shows that the Capricorn Glacier re-advanced from a retracted position in the 1980s then rapidly retreated in the lead-up to the 2010 failure. The dataset also documents 60 years of progressive development of faults, toe bulging, and precursory failures in 1998 and 2009. The 2010 collapse was conditioned by glacial retreat and triggered by hot summer weather that caused ice and snow to melt. Meltwater increased pore water pressures in colluvium and fractured rocks at the base of the slope, causing those materials to mobilize, which in turn triggered several secondary failures structurally controlled by lithology and faults. The landslide retrogressed from the base of the slope to near the peak of Mount Meager involving basement rock and the overlying volcanic sequence. Elsewhere on the flanks of Mount Meager, large fractures have developed in recently deglaciated areas, conditioning these slopes for future collapse. Potential failures in these areas have larger volumes than the 2010 landslide. Anticipated atmospheric warming over the next several decades will cause further loss of snow and glacier ice, likely producing additional slope instability. Satellite- and ground-based monitoring of these slopes can provide advanced warning of future landslides to help reduce risk in populated regions downstream.     

An experimental study of Fe–Ni exchange between sulfide melt and olivine at upper mantle conditions: implications for mantle sulfide compositions and phase equilibria

The behavior of nickel in the Earth’s mantle is controlled by sulfide melt–olivine reaction. Prior to this study, experiments were carried out at low pressures with narrow range of Ni/Fe in sulfide melt. As the mantle becomes more reduced with depth, experiments at comparable conditions provide an assessment of the effect of pressure at low-oxygen fugacity conditions. In this study, we constrain the Fe–Ni composition of molten sulfide in the Earth’s upper mantle via sulfide melt–olivine reaction experiments at 2 GPa, 1200 and 1400 °C, with sulfide melt \(X_{{{\text{Ni}}}}^{{{\text{Sulfide}}}}=\frac{{{\text{Ni}}}}{{{\text{Ni}}+{\text{Fe}}}}\) (atomic ratio) ranging from 0 to 0.94. To verify the approach to equilibrium and to explore the effect of \({f_{{{\text{O}}_{\text{2}}}}}\) on Fe–Ni exchange between phases, four different suites of experiments were conducted, varying in their experimental geometry and initial composition. Effects of Ni secondary fluorescence on olivine analyses were corrected using the PENELOPE algorithm (Baró et al., Nucl Instrum Methods Phys Res B 100:31–46, 1995), “zero time” experiments, and measurements before and after dissolution of surrounding sulfides. Oxygen fugacities in the experiments, estimated from the measured O contents of sulfide melts and from the compositions of coexisting olivines, were 3.0?±?1.0 log units more reduced than the fayalite–magnetite-quartz (FMQ) buffer (suite 1, 2 and 3), and FMQ ??1 or more oxidized (suite 4). For the reduced (suites 1–3) experiments, Fe–Ni distribution coefficients \(K_{{\text{D}}}^{{}}=\frac{{(X_{{{\text{Ni}}}}^{{{\text{sulfide}}}}/X_{{{\text{Fe}}}}^{{{\text{sulfide}}}})}}{{(X_{{{\text{Ni}}}}^{{{\text{olivine}}}}/X_{{{\text{Fe}}}}^{{{\text{olivine}}}})}}\) are small, averaging 10.0?±?5.7, with little variation as a function of total Ni content. More oxidized experiments (suite 4) give larger values of K_D (21.1–25.2). Compared to previous determinations at 100 kPa, values of K_D from this study are chiefly lower, in large part owing to the more reduced conditions of the experiments. The observed difference does not seem attributable to differences in temperature and pressure between experimental studies. It may be related in part to the effects of metal/sulfur ratio in sulfide melt. Application of these results to the composition of molten sulfide in peridotite indicates that compositions are intermediate in composition (\(X_{{{\text{Ni}}}}^{{{\text{sulfide}}}}\)?~?0.4–0.6) in the shallow mantle at 50 km, becomes more Ni rich with depth as the O content of the melt diminishes, reaching a maximum (0.6–0.7) at depths near 80–120 km, and then becomes more Fe rich in the deeper mantle where conditions are more reduced, approaching (\(X_{{{\text{Ni}}}}^{{{\text{sulfide}}}}\)?~?0.28)?>?140 km depth. Because Ni-rich sulfide in the shallow upper mantle melts at lower temperature than more Fe-rich compositions, mantle sulfide is likely molten in much of the deep continental lithosphere, including regions of diamond formation.     

Small shards and long distances — three cryptotephra layers from the Nahe palaeolake including the first discovery of Laacher See Tephra in Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

Investigations of Lateglacial to Early Holocene lake sediments from the Nahe palaeolake (northern Germany) provided a high-resolution palynological record. To increase the temporal resolution of the record a targeted search for cryptotephra was carried out on the basis of pollen stratigraphy. Three cryptotephra horizons were detected and geochemically identified as G10ka series tephra (a Saksunarvatn Ash), Vedde Ash and Laacher See Tephra. Here we present the first geochemically confirmed finding of the ash from the Laacher See Eruption in Schleswig-Holstein—extending the so far detected fallout fan of the eruption further to the north-west. These finds enable direct stratigraphical correlations and underline the potential of the site for further investigations.     

Influence of a permeable sand layer on the mechanism of backward erosion piping using 3D pipe depth measurements

Backward erosion piping (BEP) poses a threat to the stability of water-retaining structures. This can lead to severe erosion and collapse of embankments. A novel economically appealing measure against BEP is the coarse sand barrier (CSB). The CSB is a trench filled with coarse sand that is placed below the blanket layer on the landward side of the embankment, which prevents the pipe from developing upstream when it encounters the CSB. Inclusion of a CSB creates a vertically layered sand, which is the situation that can also exist in practice but is different from traditional BEP tests with one homogeneous sand. This paper presents new observations and measurements in medium-scale laboratory tests. 3D measurements of the pipe depth and dimensions are presented and analysed. This analysis indicates how the pipe dimensions evolve during the piping process and shows the erosion mechanism for BEP in vertically layered sands. The findings demonstrate the significance of three-dimensional study of the pipe rather than two dimensions. The pipe depth, width and depth-to-width ratios at the pipe tip in critical erosion stages are measured and presented. In the presented tests, two different erosion behaviours (stepwise pipe progression until failure and straight failure) are found and analysed with respect to possible influential parameters. Higher head drops and flow rates are found in tests with straight failure at the stage before progression. A linear relationship between the hydraulic conductivity contrast (k_c) and the critical head drops (h_c) is found and observations are used to investigate deviations from the line.

     

Resource Model Updating For Compositional Geometallurgical Variables

In the field of mineral resources extraction, one main challenge is to meet production targets in terms of geometallurgical properties. These properties influence the processing of the ore and are often represented in resource modeling by coregionalized variables with a complex relationship between them. Valuable data are available about geometalurgical properties and their interaction with the beneficiation process given sensor technologies during production monitoring. The aim of this research is to update resource models as new observations become available. A popular method for updating is the ensemble Kalman filter. This method relies on Gaussian assumptions and uses a set of realizations of the simulated models to derive sample covariances that can propagate the uncertainty between real observations and simulated ones. Hence, the relationship among variables has a compositional nature, such that updating these models while keeping the compositional constraints is a practical requirement in order to improve the accuracy of the updated models. This paper presents an updating framework for compositional data based on ensemble Kalman filter which allows us to work with compositions that are transformed into a multivariate Gaussian space by log-ratio transformation and flow anamorphosis. This flow anamorphosis, transforms the distribution of the variables to joint normality while reasonably keeping the dependencies between components. Furthermore, the positiveness of those variables, after updating the simulated models, is satisfied. The method is implemented in a bauxite deposit, demonstrating the performance of the proposed approach.

     

Modeling and Fitting of Three-Dimensional Mineral Microstructures by Multinary Random Fields

Mathematical Geosciences - Modeling a mineral microstructure accurately in three dimensions can render realistic mineralogical patterns which can be used for three-dimensional processing...     

Discriminant Analysis for Compositional Data Incorporating Cell-Wise Uncertainties

Mathematical Geosciences - In the geosciences it is still uncommon to include measurement uncertainties into statistical methods such as discriminant analysis, but, especially for trace elements,...     

Perceived fairness and public acceptability of carbon pricing: a review of the literature

While carbon pricing is widely seen as a crucial element of climate policy and has been implemented in many countries, it also has met with strong resistance. We provide a comprehensive overview of public perceptions of the fairness of carbon pricing and how these affect policy acceptability. To this end, we review evidence from empirical studies on how individuals judge personal, distributional and procedural aspects of carbon taxes and cap-and-trade. In addition, we examine preferences for particular redistributive and other uses of revenues generated by carbon pricing and their role in instrument acceptability. Our results indicate a high concern over distributional effects, particularly in relation to policy impacts on poor people, in turn reducing policy acceptability. In addition, people show little trust in the capacities of governments to put the revenues of carbon pricing to good use. Somewhat surprisingly, most studies do not indicate clear public preferences for using revenues to ensure fairer policy outcomes, notably by reducing its regressive effects. Instead, many people prefer using revenues for ‘environmental projects’ of various kinds. We end by providing recommendations for improving public acceptability of carbon pricing. One suggestion to increase policy acceptability is combining the redistribution of revenue to vulnerable groups with the funding for environmental projects, such as on renewable energy.

Key policy insights

• If people perceive carbon pricing instruments as fair, this increases policy acceptability and support.

• People’s satisfaction with information provided by the government about the policy instrument increases acceptability.

• While people express high concern over uneven distribution of the policy burden, they often prefer using carbon pricing revenues for environmental projects instead of compensation for inequitable outcomes.

• Recent studies find that people’s preferences shift to using revenues for making policy fairer if they better understand the functioning of carbon pricing, notably that relatively high prices of CO₂-intensive goods and services reduce their consumption.

• Combining the redistribution of revenue to support both vulnerable groups and environmental projects, such as on renewable energy, seems to most increase policy acceptability.

     

Perceptions of Land Tenure Security in Rural China: The Impact of Land Reallocations and Certification

Abstract

Tenure security is commonly recognized as an important factor in stimulating long-term investments in land. Recent studies suggest that a distinction between legal, actual and perceived tenure security needs to be made in analyzing tenure security. This study discusses the relationships between legal, actual and perceived land tenure security in rural China, and empirically examines the impact of actual on perceived land tenure security by applying Probit models to household and village survey data collected in four provinces. Using household expectations about the absence of land reallocations within the next five years as the dependent variable, we find that tenure security is positively affected by the possession of land certificates in villages that periodically reallocated land but not in villages that did not do so. The estimated impact is larger for land certificates issued in the new round of land certification than for land certificates that were issued earlier.