Response to commentary by J. L. Bamber,W. P. Aspinall and R. M. Cooke (2016)

In a commentary paper, Bamber et al. (Nat Clim Change 3:424–427, 2016) respond to our recent assessment (De Vries and Van de Wal Clim Change 1–14, 2015) of their expert judgment based study on projections of future sea level rise due to the melting of the large ice sheets (Bamber and Aspinall Nat Clim Chang 3:424–427, 2013). In this response we comment on their remarks.     

Incorporating circulation statistics in bias correction of GCM ensembles: hydrological application for the Rhine basin

An adapted statistical bias correction method is introduced to incorporate circulation-dependence of the model precipitation bias, and its influence on estimated discharges for the Rhine basin is analyzed for a historical period. The bias correction method is tailored to time scales relevant to flooding events in the basin. Large-scale circulation patterns (CPs) are obtained through Maximum Covariance Analysis using reanalysis sea level pressure and high-resolution precipitation observations. A bias correction using these CPs is applied to winter and summer separately, acknowledging the seasonal variability of the circulation regimes in North Europe and their correlation with regional precipitation rates over the Rhine basin. Two different climate model ensemble outputs are explored: ESSENCE and CMIP5. The results of the CP-method are then compared to observations and uncorrected model outputs. Results from a simple bias correction based on a delta factor (NoCP-method) are also used for comparison. For both summer and winter, the CP-method offers a statistically significant improvement of precipitation statistics for subsets of data dominated by particular circulation regimes, demonstrating the circulation-dependence of the precipitation bias. Uncorrected, CP and NoCP corrected model outputs were used as forcing to a hydrological model to simulate river discharges. The CP-method leads to a larger improvement in simulated discharge in the Alpine area in winter than in summer due to a stronger dependence of Rhine precipitation on atmospheric circulation in winter. However, the NoCP-method, in comparison to the CP-method, improves the discharge estimations over the entire Rhine basin.     

Recent variations of supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro Glacier in the central Karakoram Himalaya and its possible teleconnections with the pacific decadal oscillation

This study discusses the formation and variations of supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro glacier system in the central Karakoram Himalaya during the last four decades. We mapped supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro Glacier from 1978 to 2014 using Landsat MSS, TM, ETM + and LCDM images. Most of the glacial lakes were formed or expanded during the late 1970s–2008. After 2008, the total number and the area of glacial lakes were found to be lesser compared to previous years. We tried to find any teleconnections exists between the glacial lake changes in this region and the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), which entered its prolonged warm regime in the late 1970s and again to its cold regime in 2008, based on observational investigation. The decrease in the number and area of the supraglacial lakes after 2008 is hypothesised to be linked with the recent cold phase of PDO.     

Hydrogeological investigation of shallow aquifers in an arid data-scarce coastal region (El Daba’a,northwestern Egypt)

Hydrogeological investigations in arid regions are particularly important to support sustainable development. The study area, El Daba’a in northwestern Egypt, faces scarce water resources as a result of reported climate change that particularly affects the southern Mediterranean coast and increases stress on the local groundwater reserves. This change in climate affects the area in terms of drought, over-pumping and unregulated exploration of groundwater for irrigation purposes. The hydrogeological investigation is based on a multidisciplinary data-layer analysis that includes geomorphology, geology, slope, drainage lines, soil type, structural lineaments, subsurface data, stable isotopes, and chemical analyses. The study area contains Pleistocene and middle Miocene marine limestone aquifers. Based on lithology and microfacies analysis, the middle Miocene aquifer is subdivided into two water-bearing zones. The area is affected by sets of faults and anticline folds, and these structures are associated with fractures and joints that increase permeability and facilitate the recharge of groundwater. Stable isotope data indicate that groundwater of both the Pleistocene and middle Miocene aquifers is recharged by modern precipitation. The high salinity values observed in some groundwater wells that tap both aquifers could be attributed to leaching and dissolution processes of marine salts from the aquifers’ marine limestone matrix. In addition, human activities can also contribute to an increase in groundwater salinity. A future water exploration strategy, based on the results from the multidisciplinary data-layer analysis, is proposed for the area. The derived scientific approach is transferable to other arid coastal areas with comparable conditions.     

Thermal evolution and shale gas potential estimation of the Wealden and Posidonia Shale in NW‐Germany and the Netherlands: a 3D basin modelling study

Sedimentary basins in NW‐Germany and the Netherlands represent potential targets for shale gas exploration in Europe due to the presence of Cretaceous (Wealden) and Jurassic (Posidonia) marlstones/shales as well as various Carboniferous black shales. In order to assess the regional shale gas prospectivity of this area, a 3D high‐resolution petroleum system model has been compiled and used to reconstruct the source‐rock maturation based on calibrated burial and thermal histories. Different basal heat flow scenarios and accordingly, different high‐resolution scenarios of erosional amount distribution were constructed, incorporating all major uplift events that affected the study area. The model delivers an independent 3D reappraisal of the tectonic and thermal history that controlled the differential geodynamic evolution and provides a high‐resolution image of the maturity distribution and evolution throughout the study area and the different basins. Pressure, temperature and TOC‐dependent gas storage capacity and gas contents of the Posidonia Shale and Wealden were calculated based on experimentally derived Langmuir sorption parameters and newly compiled source‐rock thickness maps indicating shale gas potential of the Lower Saxony Basin, southern Gifhorn Trough and West Netherlands Basin.     

Agent-based simulation for biogas power plant potential in Schwarzwald-Baar-Kreis,Germany: a step towards better economy

Over the past decade, political framework in the energy sector all over the world has provoked a strong focus on the production of renewable energies. The study focuses on agent-based modelling approach to identify the suitable and economical distribution of biogas power plants over time in the area of interest. For sufficient supply of biomass (silage maize) on a regional basis to run biogas power plants economically and smoothly, different thematic layers with defined rules for Agent Analyst used to simulate the future installations of power plants. In conjunction with ArcGIS, the Agent Analyst software generates simulations that prove the robustness of the model in finding the suitable location of power plants. The resultant location from the model is analysed in different aspects. The designed methodology could be implemented in other areas with minor edits as per requirement of the area.