Stochastic modeling of length of day and universal time

We propose a general stochastic model for the UT1/LOD system and derive the corresponding Kalman filter model. This stochastic model consists of an arbitrary sum of continous time autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes, each chosen to characterize a different frequency band. The transition matrix which corresponds to the overall system and the time-dependent process noise covariance matrix are derived.Based on the general formulation, several models for UT1 were derived from spectral analysis of the Space 92 UT1 series (Gross,1993). Using Space 92 as the reference series, the candidate models were compared based on their ability to predict UT1 and LOD up to 30 days in the absence of data. These candidate models were compared with the JPL operational Kalman Earth Orientation Filter (KEOF) which assumes a random walk model for LOD (Morabito et al.,1987). The results of the comparison revealed that autoregressive modeling the 40–50 day oscillation in the LOD reduces the LOD prediction error by 10prediction.     

Reliability‐based control algorithms for nonlinear hysteretic systems based on enhanced stochastic averaging of energy envelope

Current reliability‐based control techniques have been successfully applied to linear systems; however, incorporation of stochastic nonlinear behavior of systems in such control designs remains a challenge. This paper presents two reliability‐based control algorithms that minimize failure probabilities of nonlinear hysteretic systems subjected to stochastic excitations. The proposed methods include constrained reliability‐based control (CRC) and unconstrained reliability‐based control (URC) algorithms. Accurate probabilistic estimates of nonlinear system responses to stochastic excitations are derived analytically using enhanced stochastic averaging of energy envelope proposed previously by the authors. Convolving these demand estimates with capacity models yields the reliability of nonlinear systems in the control design process. The CRC design employs the first‐level and second‐level optimizations sequentially where the first‐level optimization solves the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and the second‐level optimization searches for optimal objective function parameters to minimize the probability of failure. In the URC design, a single optimization minimizes the probability of failure by directly searching for the optimal control gain. Application of the proposed control algorithms to a building on nonlinear foundation has shown noticeable improvements in system performance under various stochastic excitations. The URC design appears to be the most optimal method as it reduced the probability of slight damage to 8.7%, compared with 11.6% and 19.2% for the case of CRC and a stochastic linear quadratic regulator, respectively. Under the Kobe ground motion, the normalized peak drift displacement with respect to stochastic linear quadratic regulator is reduced to 0.78 and 0.81 for the URC and CRC cases, respectively, at comparable control force levels. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides based on real-time probabilistic hazard assessment

Natural Hazards - A methodology to define rainfall-landslide thresholds, using a probabilistic model in which the accumulated rainfall at any time is treated as a random variable, is proposed. The...     

Estuarine resources use by juvenile Flagfin mojarra (Eucinostomus melanopterus) in an inverse tropical estuary (Sine Saloum,Senegal)

The Flagfin mojarra, Eucinostomus melanopterus, is a marine spawner whose young individuals are common in the Sine Saloum inverse estuary (Senegal). The species offers the opportunity to study both the use of the estuarine nursery resources and the impact of the particular environment of the inverse estuary on these resources. This will lead to a better understanding of the functioning of the nursery. We investigated the resources used by juvenile Flagfin mojarra by coupling stomach contents and stable isotopes methods.     

Equilibrium and Stability of Prominence Flux Ropes

Realistic models of solar prominence flux ropes are numerically constructed. The models are in 2.5 dimensions, including the effects of non-isothermal temperature, density and gravity, and pressure. Stability of the equilibria to pressure- and gravity-driven instabilities is numerically investigated, using the ballooning formalism of fusion plasma theory. The equilibrium models can become unstable to pressure- and gravity-driven modes at plasma parameters characteristic of prominences.     

Prediction of long-term settlement on soft clay using shear wave velocity and damping characteristics

This paper presents a method of calculating long-term settlement of a loaded pad on soft clay at Klang, Selangor, Malaysia where the soil model is treated as an anelastic material of viscoelastic property. Initially, an elastic shear modulus (G) value from shear wave velocity profiles of the seismic tests from spectral analysis of surface wave (SASW) and continuous surface wave (CSW) tests was obtained. A value of damping (D) at an equivalent elastic strain is then calculated from the hysteresis of the plate load tests corrected to equivalent strain using the Damping–Strain formula. The calculated elastic settlement and its equivalent damping are then used to calculate the long-term settlement by applying the generalised viscoelastic formula. Comparisons to traditional methods of settlement predictions were made and the viscoelastic formula has shown better agreement to the observed settlement. Further modification of the settlement formula is introduced to improve the settlement accuracy to 10%.     

Identification of probable groundwater paths in the Amargosa Desert vicinity

In this study, the hydrogeochemical program PHREEQC was used to determine the chemical speciation and mineral saturation indices (SIs) of groundwater in the vicinity of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada (USA). In turn, these data were used to interpret the origin and recharge mode of groundwater, to elucidate the mechanisms of flow and transport, and to determine potential sources of groundwater contamination. PHREEQC was run to determine aqueous dissolved species and minerals that would be in equilibrium with the study area’s groundwater. Selected major ions, associated SI, F⁻ and Ca/Na ion exchange were then examined using the multivariate statistical methods of principal component factor analysis and k-means cluster analysis. Analysis of dissolved ion concentrations, SIs, and Ca/Na ion exchange allows simultaneous consideration of arithmetic (raw concentrations) and logarithmic (SI, ion exchange) variables that describe the hydrochemical system and, therefore, can provide further insight into the system’s behavior. The analysis indicates that the dominant processes and reactions responsible for the hydrochemical evolution in the system are (1) evaporative concentration prior to infiltration, (2) carbonate equilibrium, (3) silicate weathering reactions, (4) limited mixing with saline water, (5) dissolution/precipitation of calcite, dolomite and fluorite, and (6) ion exchange. Principal component factor analysis and k-means cluster analysis of factor scores allow the reduction of dimensions describing the system and the identification of hydrogeochemical facies and the processes that defined and govern their evolution.Statistical analysis results indicate that the northern, west face and southern Yucca Mountain groundwater is fresh water with low concentrations of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl⁻, Ca²⁺/(Na⁺)², and CaF₂. The Fortymile Wash groundwater is dilute. The carbonate signature is shown in the Ash Meadows and Death Valley waters with high fluorite SI. Finally, the Crater Flat, Stripped Hills, and Skeleton Hills are dominated by Ca/Na ion exchange, Mg and Ca. The hydrochemical and statistical analyses showed three main groundwater signatures or hydrochemical processes indicating groundwater evolution, potential flowpaths, and recharge areas. The flowpaths are the trace of the Amargosa River, the trace of Fortymile Wash, and its convergence with the Amargosa River. This appears to represent not just a groundwater flow path, but traces of surface runoff infiltration as well.     

Strike-slip faults parallel to crustal spreading axes: data from Iceland and the Afar Depression

Slickenside studies in regions of crustal spreading such as Iceland and the Afar Depression, East Africa, reveal that a significant number of faults parallel and close to rift axes are strike-slip rather than normal. Therefore, the pattern of brittle deformation in these regions does not conform to the classic two-dimensional schemes of oceanic tectonics and pre-oceanic rifting. Dip-slip and strike-slip faulting presumably alternated along or in the vicinity of spreading axes, indicate a varying stress field and a combination of transverse and longitudinal movements. In Iceland, strike-slip faults parallel to rifts are observed both west and east of the rift system as well as in a median area between overlapping rifts; the mechanisms proposed for their origin include accommodation of oblique convergence or divergence of crustal sections due to variations of spreading directions along axis and the interaction of overlapping rifts. In the Afar Depression this kind of fault is recorded west of the rift of Asal and can be imputed to reflect an interaction among rifts in the vicinity of the Afar triple junction. Rift-parallel strike-slip faults cannot however be assumed to be a feature of all crustal spreading axes due to the peculiarity of the examined regions: both of them are hot-spot areas and the Afar Depression lies at a triple junction.