Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain

The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard risk analyses. In this article, the process of probabilistic seismic risk analysis is described, explaining the main features of the CAPRA modules of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimation applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. In addition, according to the physical risk results and the information on the socioeconomic indicators of the city, this article presents the holistic evaluation of seismic risk, which is a valuable result to facilitate the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision making.     

Hydrogeological studies on the Nubian sandstone aquifer in El-Bahariya Oasis, Western Desert, Egypt

The current study aimed to evaluate hydrogeologically the Nubian sandstone aquifer in El-Bahariya Oasis. It represents the main water-bearing horizon in the study area and consists of continental elastic sediments, mainly sandstone alternating with shale and clays. The general flow lines are directed from SW to NE direction, as detected from the constructed potentiometric head contour map. The piezometric surface reaches 149 m in El-Heiz area at the southern part, while it reaches 90 m at the northern, reflecting higher pressure head of the aquifer in the southern part. The map also illustrates that the southern part is considered as the most promising location for development. The structural elements play an important role in the deposition and distribution of the sedimentary succession of the Nubian sandstone sediments. Consequently, this sedimentary pattern affects the occurrences and movements of the groundwater within the aquifer system. Along the structurally high areas, in the study area, the piezometric head increases, while the reverse is recorded along the structurally low areas. The step-drawdown tests data were carried out by calculating the aquifer loss coefficient (B) and the well loss constant (C). The B values are smaller compared with C values, indicating that the aquifer under pressure has a behavior of leaky aquifer; therefore, it shows hydraulic connection with surrounding formation. The values of well efficiency range from 78.50% to 87.76%. Analysis of 12 pumping test data (constant discharge tests) was carried out in order to calculate the Nubian aquifer hydraulic parameters (transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, and storage coefficient). The transmissivity values decrease from 3,045 m²/day in the southern part (El-Heiz area) to 236 m²/day in the northeastern part (El-Harra area). Accordingly, the aquifer classified as a high to moderate potentiality. Transmissivity contour map observes gradual increase of transmissivity values from the southern to northeastern direction. This may be due to the increase of shale or clay content in the concerned aquifer in that direction. The storage coefficient values range between 1.04 × 10^?4 and 5.22 × 10^?3, as obtained from the results of pumping test analysis, which ensure that the Nubian sandstone aquifer is classified as semi-confined to confined aquifer type. The S values show a decrease from southwest to northeast direction as detected from S-map. The hydraulic conductivity values vary from to 0.46 m/day in the northern part to 10.88 m/day in the southern part with an average of 5.67 m/day. According to the classification based on K values, the aquifer is mainly composed of coarse sand.     

Inverted basin analysis and geological modeling, Razzak Oil Field, Western Desert, Egypt

This paper deals with a geological modeling based on seismic and well data of the Razzak Oil Field, located in northwestern desert of Egypt aimed mainly at improving the knowledge on inversion tectonics in the sedimentary basin corresponding to the oil field. Contour maps of significant seismic horizons corresponding to the top of Meso-Cenozoic formations which represent the stratigraphic traps of the oil field (top Apollonia, top Abu Roash “G,” top Bahariya, and top Alamein) are presented. The final model consists of geological cross-sections showing the inversion basin in the Razzak Oil Field. From the seismic data interpretation and modeling, we have different results matching with regional tectonic and transcurrent motion model. There are two main fault trends: the first one was northeast–southwest matching the Jurassic rift where the Jurassic is characterized by normal faults that formed in conjunction with the opening of the Neo-Tethys, and the other fault trend is northwest–southeast matching with Cretaceous faults. This is followed by a period of compressive tectonism (Syrian Arc deformation) in which two of the Jurassic normal faulted blocks (one at the northern part and the other at the southern part of the Qattara–Alamein ridge in the Razzak field) are reactivated as reverse faulted by Eocene–Early Oligocene time.     

Community forest management in Mexico: carbon mitigation and biodiversity conservation through rural development

Forest management is an important carbon mitigation strategy for developing countries. As demonstrated by the case of Mexico, community forest management is especially effective because it offers tangible local benefits while conserving forests and sequestering carbon. Community forestry receives minimal government support now, but the clean development mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol could leverage additional resources to promote the approach in Mexico and elsewhere. We argue that adequately designed and implemented, community forestry management projects can avoid deforestation and restore forest cover and forest density. They comprise promising options for providing both carbon mitigation and sustainable rural development. These kinds of projects should be included in the CDM.     

Groundwater contamination with arsenic and other trace elements in an area of the pampa,province of Córdoba,Argentina

A geochemical study of groundwater of the pampa in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, was performed; the area covered approximately 10,000 km².Physical-chemical parameters, dissolved solids, and seven trace elements were determined in 60 selected water samples. Systematic and accurate measurements of arsenic, flourine, and vanadium were performed for the first time. Three trace element contaminants not reported earlier were found: an important one, selenium, and two others of less known effects, uranium and molybdenum.Eighty-four percent of the water analyzed showed arsenic contents over 0.05 mg/L, maximum contaminant level established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1982). The frequency distribution of trace elements was analyzed, and its fit to the lognormal distribution was proved by means of the Pearson and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test; the geographic distribution of the seven trace elements was mapped and its correlation with the anion-cation composition of the water was studied.The maximum arsenic, fluorine, vanadium, and uranium contents were found in the western part of the area under study, in waters containing dominant alkali metals in the cation composition. Maximum selenium and antimony contents were found in the eastern part of the area, while molybdenum distribution does not show any relationship with the other two groups. In addition, the geographic distribution of the trace elements seems to be related to the subsurface structure, which has been inferred using interactive digital analysis of Landsat imagery. The movements of the subsoil have disturbed surface and subsurface drainage influencing the water salinity and trace element contents.In order to investigate the origin of the contamination, 54 loess samples were collected in wells at depths ranging from the surface down to the water table. This loess, which has a high proportion of volcanic components, mainly rhyolitic glass, exhibits a chemical composition corresponding to that of a dacite.The loess and the volcanic glass show anomalous contents of all contaminant trace elements, mainly arsenic and selenium. For this reason loess is considered the most important contamination source in the groundwater under study.     

Provenance, diagenesis, tectonic setting and geochemistry of Tawil Sandstone (Lower Devonian) in Central Saudi Arabia

The Tawil Sandstone (Lower Devonian) in Central Saudi Arabia overlies the Sharwara Member of the Tayyarat Formation (Silurian) and succeeded conformly by the Shaiba Member of the Jauf Formation. Petrographical data reveal that the Tawil Sandstone comprises 96% quartz, 3% feldspar, and 1% rock fragments and all samples are classified as quartz arenites. The presence of well sorted, altered to fresh feldspar, and discriminate function analysis suggests that the sediments have been subjected to substartial reworking resulting in a high level of maturity. Modal analysis data (Q–F–L) suggest a stable cratonic provenance for the sediments and accumulation in a passive margin basin is indicated (binary plot of SiO₂ vs K₂O/Na₂O). Diagenetic features include dissolution of feldspar and rock fragments, compaction, reduction of the existing pore space through rearrangements, and rotation and fragmentation of grains resulting in dissolution of quartz grains and cementation.     

Quantifying deformation in North Borneo with GPS

The existence of intra-plate deformation of the Sundaland platelet along its eastern edge in North Borneo, South-East Asia, makes it an interesting area that still is relatively understudied. In addition, the motion of the coastal area of North-West Borneo is directed toward a frontal fold-and-thrust belt and has been fueling a long debate on the possible geophysical sources behind it. At present this fold-and-thrust belt is not generating significant seismic activity and may also not be entirely active due to a decreasing shelfal extension from south to north. Two sets of Global Positioning System (GPS) data have been used in this study; the first covering a time period from 1999 until 2004 (ending just before the Giant Sumatra–Andaman earthquake) to determine the continuous Sundaland tectonic plate motion, and the second from 2009 until 2011 to investigate the current deformations of North Borneo. Both absolute and relative positioning methods were carried out to investigate horizontal and vertical displacements. Analysis of the GPS results indicates a clear trend of extension along coastal regions of Sarawak and Brunei in North Borneo. On the contrary strain rate tensors in Sabah reveal that only insignificant and inconsistent extension and compression occurs throughout North-West Borneo. Moreover, station velocities and rotation rate tensors on the northern part of North Borneo suggest a clockwise (micro-block) rotation. The first analysis of vertical displacements recorded by GPS in North-West Borneo points to low subsidence rates along the western coastal regions of Sabah and inconsistent trends between the Crocker and Trusmadi mountain ranges. These results have not been able to either confirm or reject the hypothesis that gravity sliding is the main driving force behind the local motions in North Borneo. The ongoing Sundaland–Philippine Sea plate convergence may also still play an active role in the present-day deformation (crustal shortening) in North Borneo and the possible clockwise rotation of the northern part of North Borneo as a micro-block. However, more observations need to be collected to determine if the northern part of North Borneo indeed is (slowly) moving independently.     

Characterization of carbon monoxide,methane and nonmethane hydrocarbons in emerging cities of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and in Singapore

We investigate the composition of 63 C₂-C₁₀ nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), methane (CH₄) and carbon monoxide (CO), in Jeddah, Mecca, and Madina (Saudi Arabia), in Lahore, (Pakistan), and in Singapore. We established a database with which to compare and contrast NMHCs in regions where ambient levels and emissions are poorly characterized, but where conditions are favorable to the formation of tropospheric ozone, and where measurements are essential for improving emission inventories and modeling. This dataset will also serve as a base for further analysis of air pollution in Western Saudi Arabia including, but not limited to, the estimation of urban emissions and long range pollution transport from these regions. The measured species showed enhanced levels in all Saudi Arabian cities compared to the local background but were generally much lower than in Lahore. In Madina, vehicle exhaust was the dominant NMHC source, as indicated by enhanced levels of combustion products and by the good correlation between NMHCs and CO, while in Jeddah and Mecca a combination of sources needs to be considered. Very high NMHC levels were measured in Lahore, and elevated levels of CH₄ in Lahore were attributed to natural gas. When we compared our results with 2010 emissions from the MACCity global inventory, we found discrepancies in the relative contribution of NMHCs between the measurements and the inventory. In all cities, alkenes (especially ethene and propene) dominated the hydroxyl radical (OH) reactivity (k _OH) because of their great abundance and their relatively fast reaction rates with OH.