Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.     

GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in northern Ardenne–Eifel: five campaigns (1999–2003) of the HARD project

We present the HARD project of GPS monitoring of vertical ground motion in NE Ardenne and Eifel (western Europe). Its main purposes are to get a better insight into the present-day rates of vertical ground motion in intraplate settings and to identify the various causes of these motions. Since 1999, we have carried out yearly campaigns of simultaneous GPS measurements at 12 sites situated so as to sample the different tectonic subunits of the study area and especially to record potential displacements across the seismogenic Hockai fault zone. Five campaigns (1999–2003) have been processed currently. Key issues of the data processing with the Gamit software are discussed and first results are presented. Though temporally consistent in many cases, the obtained vertical motion rates are spatially highly variable. They are also much too high (several mm/year) to support a tectonic interpretation, and a long-term influence of groundwater level variations is proposed to account for the observed motions. This influence should be distinguished from seasonal variations and from inter-survey variations linked to the varying degree of soil and subsoil drying off during the successive spring surveys.     

喀斯特土地利用变化及其区域生态环境效应--以广西都安瑶族自治县为例

从土地利用转移类型、空间格局变化定量分析、动态变化预测模型等方面分析近20年都安土地利用变化,进而对其生态环境质量变化进行定量分析,得出结论:都安各乡(镇)生态环境质量改善与恶化在很大程度取决于裸岩地扩展与收缩,土地利用时空变化与区域生态环境质量的区域差异有很大相关性。     

用叠加谱比法研究新疆地区Lg尾波Q值的区域性变化

运用叠加谱比法,对分布于新疆地区的5个台站所记录的51个地震数据进行分析,得出与各射线路径相对应的Lg尾波Q0(Lg尾波在1Hz处的Q)值。结果表明:Q0值呈现出明显的区域性变化特点,与构造活动关系紧密。在较为稳定的塔里木地台,Q0呈现出高值,在350～450之间。在南部构造活动较为激烈的昆仑褶皱系,Q0呈现出较低的值,约为200～250。在构造活动最为激烈的帕米尔地区,Q0值在170～200之间。在北部的天山褶皱系,Q0值约为220～270。准葛尔褶皱系比天山褶皱系的Q0值略高,约为260～290。     

基于遥感反演的山东半岛东北部海域悬浮体时空变化规律探讨

基于2003—2018年中分辨率成像光谱仪(moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer,MODIS)卫星遥感影像资料,结合2018年春季、夏季和冬季大面站悬浮体取样分析结果,构建了表层悬浮体浓度遥感反演模型;在此基础上,分析了山东半岛东北部海域年际和月份表层悬浮体浓度时空分布规律,探讨了表层悬浮体浓度变化的主控因素和水体结构季节变化及其对悬浮体分布输运的影响。结果表明:山东半岛东北部海域表层悬浮体总体呈近岸高远岸低的分布特征,东部成山头区域悬浮体浓度较高且向海扩散较远,西部威海湾及外侧海域悬浮体浓度较低且扩散范围小于东部。研究区悬浮体浓度季节性变化显著但对应季节年度变化较小,冬季悬浮体浓度达到最大,春秋季次之,夏季最低。研究区春季、秋季和冬季表层悬浮体浓度主要受控于北向风浪和潮流,而夏季悬浮体浓度主要受潮流控制。夏季,温跃层阻碍了悬浮体垂向扩散,导致表层悬浮体浓度极低;冬季,研究区东部成山头附近水平分布的弱温跃层虽然会在一定程度上抑制悬浮体的再悬浮,但再悬浮扩散仍是造成研究区高悬浮体浓度的主要因素。山东半岛东北部存在类似"夏储冬输"的特征...     

烃源岩热模拟分子标志物演化特征及分子解析

为了研究地质体中分子标志物随热成熟度的演化规律,开展了烃源岩热模拟实验,并对产物进行了分子标志物定量及分子解析。结果表明,随着模拟温度的增高,三环萜烷和藿烷含量均逐渐降低,但降低幅度有差异,藿烷和高相对分子质量的三环萜烷降低幅度大于低相对分子质量的三环萜烷,导致在热模拟温度升至370℃的情况下,低相对分子质量三环萜烷的峰高高于藿烷;高相对分子质量甾烷含量降低幅度大于低相对分子质量甾烷,相同相对分子质量不同构型化合物甾烷热解速率不一致,同碳数ααα甾烷热解速率大于αββ甾烷,低相对分子质量的甾烷定量结果随热模拟温度升高先降低后升高再降低;低碳数的芳烃含量随热模拟温度升高先降低后升高,高碳数芳烃含量则一直处于降低状态。分子解析认为,C₁₉和C₂₀三环萜烷主要来自于高碳数三环萜烷的裂解,藿烷的贡献极低;17α(H)C₂₇三降藿烷(Tm)来自高碳数藿烷的贡献,18α(H)C₂₇三降藿烷(Ts)没有其他化合物加入;相同质量前提下,C₂₉甾烷裂解速率为:C₂₉ααS&...     

Modbus在生物采样电子监控系统中的应用

针对深海生物幼体采样的需要,提出一种基于Modbus协议的电子监控系统.首先介绍了Modbus通信协议,并重点研究了Modbus主从机的软件设计.设计实现了电子监控系统的软硬件部分.文章设计的监控系统将电子监控引入深海生物幼体采样,并实现了Modbus规约的网络化控制.系统大大提高了采样系统各部件的工作效率和稳定性,低功耗模式的设计也延长了采样系统的工作时间,一定程度上缓解了海底设备电力不足的困境.系统也适用于普通渔场生物拖网的控制.     

Nautilus矿业公司SMS勘探中采用的取样技术与装备

海底大块状硫化物(SMS)富含铜、锌、铅等金属,特别是富含贵金属金、银,引起了国际采矿业的浓厚兴趣。近年来,以澳大利亚Nautilus矿业公司为先驱代表的国际大型资源开发商和投资商已介入海底多金属硫化物的商业化开采。文中介绍了Nautilus公司在巴布亚新几内亚专属经济区针对海底块状硫化物矿床开展的一系列以商业开采为目的的勘探取样活动,详细介绍了勘探中所采用的基本方法与技术,并重点对其地质调查中所应用的拖网挖掘取样、ROV海底表面取样、大洋钻探船岩芯取样和专门开发的ROV岩芯钻探取样的装备、取样结果及作业效率进行了较为系统全面地介绍。     

凡纳滨对虾的遗传育种研究现状

凡纳滨对虾(Litopenaeus vannamei Boone),由于其生长快,抗环境变化能力强,对饵料的要求低,肉味鲜美、出肉率高,成为世界上公认的优良养殖对虾品种之一.凡纳滨对虾自1998年从美国夏威夷再次引进到中国华南,并相继突破集约化防病养殖和全人工繁育技术以来[1],已成为中国海水养殖动物中发展最快的一个种类,其养殖产量已达到中国养殖对虾产量的80%～90%.然而目前中国凡纳滨对虾亲虾多数直接从虾塘挑选,造成品质参差不齐,抗病力下降,生产周期延长,严重制约了中国凡纳滨对虾养殖业持续健康发展.凡纳滨对虾亟需形成稳定优良的养殖品系.     

台风艾云尼非对称降水及动热力结构演变特征分析

台风艾云尼(1804号)第2次登陆广东过程中降水表现出显著的非对称分布,强降水主要位于其路径前进方向的右侧(简称台风右侧)。利用欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA5再分析资料、广东风廓线雷达观测资料以及降水观测资料,对造成非对称降水的环流背景和动力、热力结构演变特征进行了分析。结果表明:艾云尼左右两侧水汽输送及动力、热力条件差异是造成降水非对称的主要原因。加强的低空急流以及台风马力斯(1805号)水汽的输送为台风右侧强降水的产生提供了更好的水汽背景,而低空急流的加强配合高空强的辐散抽吸使得右侧垂直上升运动也明显大于左侧。边界层内强盛的低空急流以及珠江三角洲地区下垫面强摩擦辐合作用导致艾云尼右前侧径向入流强度更强、强入流层厚度更厚、边界层高度更高,且由于距离台风眼墙越近风速越大,上述现象越明显,为强降水的产生提供的动力和水汽条件越好。强降水期间艾云尼右侧低层大气维持不稳定状态,分析表明强低空急流携带的θ_se平流及其随高度的减弱弥补了强降水造成的能量损耗,是不稳定能量维持的重要原因。