An approximate energy cycle for inter-member variability in ensemble simulations of a regional climate model

The presence of internal variability (IV) in ensembles of nested regional climate model (RCM) simulations is now widely acknowledged in the community working on dynamical downscaling. IV is defined as the inter-member spread between members in an ensemble of simulations performed by a given RCM driven by identical lateral boundary conditions (LBC), where different members are being initialised at different times. The physical mechanisms responsible for the time variations and structure of such IV have only recently begun to receive attention. Recent studies have shown empirical evidence of a close parallel between the energy conversions associated with the time fluctuations of IV in ensemble simulations of RCM and the energy conversions taking place in weather systems. Inspired by the classical work on global energetics of weather systems, we sought a formulation of an energy cycle for IV that would be applicable for limited-area domain. We develop here a novel formalism based on local energetics that can be applied to further our understanding IV. Prognostic equations for ensemble-mean kinetic energy and available enthalpy are decomposed into contributions due to ensemble-mean variables (EM) and those due to deviations from the ensemble mean (IV). Together these equations constitute an energy cycle for IV in ensemble simulations of RCM. Although the energy cycle for IV was developed in a context entirely different from that of energetics of weather systems, the exchange terms between the various reservoirs have a rather similar mathematical form, which facilitates some interpretations of their physical meaning.     

The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia: floodplain hydrology and its potential ecological and human impacts

It is well known that most of the severe droughts in Amazonia, such as that of 1997, are El Niño-related. However, in 2005, the Amazon was affected by a severe drought that was not El Niño-related, as most of the rainfall anomalies that have happened in southwestern Amazonia are driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic. Earlier studies have analyzed both droughts in terms of their meteorological causes and impacts in terra firme (non-flooded) forests. This study compares the hydrological effects of both droughts on the Amazonian floodplain and discusses their potential ecological and human impacts based on an extensive literature review. The results revealed that the effects of the 2005 drought were exacerbated because rainfall was lower and evaporation rates were higher at the peak of the dry season compared to the 1997 drought. This induced a more acute depletion of water levels in floodplain lakes and was most likely associated with higher fish mortality rates. Based on the fact that the stem growth of many floodplain species is related to the length of the non-flooded period, it is hypothesized that the 1997 drought had more positive effects on floodplain forest growth than the 2005 drought. The fishing community of Silves in central Amazonia considered both droughts to have been equally severe. However, the 2005 drought was widely broadcasted by the press; therefore, the governmental mitigation efforts were more comprehensive. It is suggested that the availability of new communication technology and greater public awareness regarding environmental issues, combined with the new legal framework for assessing the severity of calamities in Brazil, are among the primary factors that explain the difference in societal response between the two droughts.     

Modeling monthly mean air temperature for Brazil

Air temperature is one of the main weather variables influencing agriculture around the world. Its availability, however, is a concern, mainly in Brazil where the weather stations are more concentrated on the coastal regions of the country. Therefore, the present study had as an objective to develop models for estimating monthly and annual mean air temperature for the Brazilian territory using multiple regression and geographic information system techniques. Temperature data from 2,400 stations distributed across the Brazilian territory were used, 1,800 to develop the equations and 600 for validating them, as well as their geographical coordinates and altitude as independent variables for the models. A total of 39 models were developed, relating the dependent variables maximum, mean, and minimum air temperatures (monthly and annual) to the independent variables latitude, longitude, altitude, and their combinations. All regression models were statistically significant (α?≤?0.01). The monthly and annual temperature models presented determination coefficients between 0.54 and 0.96. We obtained an overall spatial correlation higher than 0.9 between the models proposed and the 16 major models already published for some Brazilian regions, considering a total of 3.67?×?10⁸?pixels evaluated. Our national temperature models are recommended to predict air temperature in all Brazilian territories.     

Present climate and climate change over North America as simulated by the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model

The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) was used to dynamically downscale two Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM) simulations of the transient climate change for the period 1950–2100, over North America, following the CORDEX protocol. The CRCM5 was driven by data from the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR CGCM simulations, based on the historical (1850–2005) and future (2006–2100) RCP4.5 radiative forcing scenario. The results show that the CRCM5 simulations reproduce relatively well the current-climate North American regional climatic features, such as the temperature and precipitation multiannual means, annual cycles and temporal variability at daily scale. A cold bias was noted during the winter season over western and southern portions of the continent. CRCM5-simulated precipitation accumulations at daily temporal scale are much more realistic when compared with its driving CGCM simulations, especially in summer when small-scale driven convective precipitation has a large contribution over land. The CRCM5 climate projections imply a general warming over the continent in the 21st century, especially over the northern regions in winter. The winter warming is mostly contributed by the lower percentiles of daily temperatures, implying a reduction in the frequency and intensity of cold waves. A precipitation decrease is projected over Central America and an increase over the rest of the continent. For the average precipitation change in summer however there is little consensus between the simulations. Some of these differences can be attributed to the uncertainties in CGCM-projected changes in the position and strength of the Pacific Ocean subtropical high pressure.     

Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonization of a power market

How does financial performance risk affect investments in low-carbon electricity-generating technologies to achieve climate policy targets? A detailed risk simulation of price formation in the Great Britain wholesale power market is used to show that the increasing replacement of fossil facilities with wind, ceteris paribus, may cause a deterioration of the financial risk–return performance metrics for incremental investments. Low-carbon investments appear to be high risk, low return, and as such may require a progressively higher level of support over time than envisaged by the conventional degression trajectories. The increasing riskiness of the wholesale market will to some extent offset the benefits of lower capital costs and operational efficiencies if investors need to satisfy cautious debt coverage ratios alongside positive expected returns. This increased risk is additional to the well-known ‘merit order effect’ of low-carbon investments progressively depressing wholesale prices and hence their expected investment returns.

Policy relevance

Policy support for renewable technologies such as wind is usually based upon levelized costs and is expected to reduce over time as capital costs and operational efficiencies improve. However, levelized costs do not take full account of the risk aversion that investors may have in practice. Expected policy support reductions may be moderated to some extent by the increased financial performance risk that intermittent technologies bring to the power market. The annual risk-return profiles for incremental investments deteriorate for all technologies as wind replaces fossil fuels. This extra risk premium will need to be incorporated into evaluating policy incentives for new investments in a decarbonizing power market.     

THz photometers for solar flare observations from space

The search for the still unrevealed spectral shape of the mysterious THz solar flare emissions is one of the current most challenging research issues. The concept, fabrication and performance of a double THz photometer system, named SOLAR-T, is presented. Its innovative optical setup allows observations of the full solar disk and the detection of small burst transients at the same time. The detecting system was constructed to observe solar flare THz emissions on board of stratospheric balloons. The system has been integrated to data acquisition and telemetry modules for this application. SOLAR-T uses two Golay cell detectors preceded by low-pass filters made of rough surface primary mirrors and membranes, 3 and 7 THz band-pass filters, and choppers. Its photometers can detect small solar bursts (tens of solar flux units) with sub second time resolution. Tests have been conducted to confirm the entire system performance, on ambient and low pressure and temperature conditions. An artificial Sun setup was developed to simulate performance on actual observations. The experiment is planned to be on board of two long-duration stratospheric balloon flights over Antarctica and Russia in 2014–2016.     

Numerical continuation of families of frozen orbits in the zonal problem of artificial satellite theory

In the zonal problem of a satellite around the Earth, we continue numerically natural families of periodic orbits with the polar component of the angular momentum as the parameter. We found three families; two of them are made of orbits with linear stability while the third one is made of unstable orbits. Except in a neighborhood of the critical inclination, the stable periodic (or frozen) orbits have very small eccentricities even for large inclinations.     

Twenty years of evolution for the DORIS permanent network: from its initial deployment to its renovation

The ground network is one of the major components of the DORIS system. Its deployment, managed by the French national mapping agency [Institut Géographique National, (IGN)], started in 1986 at a sustained pace that allowed it to reach 32 stations upon the launch of the first DORIS-equipped satellite (SPOT-2) in 1990. For the first generation of transmitting antennas, the installation procedures were adapted to the decimetre performance objective for the DORIS system. During the second era of the deployment of an even denser network, the antenna support layouts gradually evolved towards a better quality, thus improving the long-term stability of the antenna reference point, and a new antenna model allowed a more accurate survey. As the positioning accuracy of the DORIS system improved, it was necessary to review the antenna stability for the whole network. A first stability estimation, using criteria like antenna model and support design, was followed by a major renovation effort which started in 2000 and is now almost complete. In 6 years, through the renovation or installation of 43 stations and the implementation of new installation procedures to meet more stringent stability requirements, significant improvement in network quality was achieved. Later a more analytical approach, taking into account the characteristics of each element that support the antenna, has been taken to assess the potential stability of all DORIS occupations. IGN is also in charge of its operational maintenance, an intensive activity on account of the significant failure rate of the successive generations of equipment. Nevertheless, thanks to its unique density and homogeneity, DORIS has maintained a very good coverage rate of the satellite orbits. Through 38 well-distributed current co-locations with the Global Positioning System, Satellite Laser Ranging and Very Long Baseline Interferometry techniques in its current 56-station network, DORIS contributes significantly to the realisation of the International Terrestrial Reference System. DORIS stations in areas where no other space geodesy technique is available provide a significant contribution to the study of plate tectonics. Many stations co-located with tide gauges contribute to the monitoring of sea level changes. Although it has several advantages over similar techniques, there is still room for improvement in the DORIS network.     

Behaviour of the SMF method for the numerical integration of satellite orbits

The SMF algorithms were recently developed by the authors as a multistep generalization of the ScheifeleG-functions one-step method. Like the last, the proposed codes integrate harmonic oscillations without truncation error and the perturbing parameter appears as a factor of that error when integrating perturbed oscillations. Therefore they seemed to be convenient for the accurate integration of orbital problems after the application of linearizing transformations, such as KS or BF. In this paper we present several numerical experiments concerning the propagation of Earth satellite orbits, that illustrate the performance of the the SMF method. In general, it provides greater accuracy than the usual standard algorithms for similar computational cost.     

On The Origin of The High-Perihelion Scattered Disk: The Role of The Kozai Mechanism And Mean Motion Resonances

We study the transfer process from the scattered disk (SD) to the high-perihelion scattered disk (HPSD) (defined as the population with perihelion distances q > 40 AU and semimajor axes a>50 AU) by means of two different models. One model (Model 1) assumes that SD objects (SDOs) were formed closer to the Sun and driven outwards by resonant coupling with the accreting Neptune during the stage of outward migration (Gomes 2003b, Earth, Moon, Planets 92, 29–42.). The other model (Model 2) considers the observed population of SDOs plus clones that try to compensate for observational discovery bias (Fernández et al. 2004, Icarus , in press). We find that the Kozai mechanism (coupling between the argument of perihelion, eccentricity, and inclination), associated with a mean motion resonance (MMR), is the main responsible for raising both the perihelion distance and the inclination of SDOs. The highest perihelion distance for a body of our samples was found to be q = 69.2 AU. This shows that bodies can be temporarily detached from the planetary region by dynamical interactions with the planets. This phenomenon is temporary since the same coupling of Kozai with a MMR will at some point bring the bodies back to states of lower-q values. However, the dynamical time scale in high-q states may be very long, up to several Gyr. For Model 1, about 10% of the bodies driven away by Neptune get trapped into the HPSD when the resonant coupling Kozai-MMR is disrupted by Neptune’s migration. Therefore, Model 1 also supplies a fossil HPSD, whose bodies remain in non-resonant orbits and thus stable for the age of the solar system, in addition to the HPSD formed by temporary captures of SDOs after the giant planets reached their current orbits. We find that about 12 – 15% of the surviving bodies of our samples are incorporated into the HPSD after about 4 – 5 Gyr, and that a large fraction of the captures occur for up to the 1:8 MMR (a ⋍ 120 AU), although we record captures up to the 1:24 MMR (a ≃ 260 AU). Because of the Kozai mechanism, HPSD objects have on average inclinations about 25°–50°, which are higher than those of the classical Edgeworth–Kuiper (EK) belt or the SD. Our results suggest that Sedna belongs to a dynamically distinct population from the HPSD, possibly being a member of the inner core of the Oort cloud. As regards to 2000 CR₁₀₅ , it is marginally within the region occupied by HPSD objects in the parametric planes (q,a) and (a,i), so it is not ruled out that it might be a member of the HPSD, though it might as well belong to the inner core.