Further developments of a transient Poisson-cluster model for rainfall

Stochastic point processes for rainfall are known to be able to preserve the temporal variability of rainfall on several levels of aggregation (e.g. hourly, daily), especially when the cluster approach is used. One major assumption in most of the applications todate is the stationarity of the rainfall properties in time, which must be reconsidered under a climate change hypothesis. Here, we propose new theoretical developments of a Poisson-based model with cluster, namely the Neyman–Scott Rectangular Pulses Model, which treats storm frequency as a nonstationary function. In this paper, storm frequency is modelled as a linear function of time in order to reproduce an increase (or decrease) of the mean annual precipitation. The basic theory is reconsidered and the moments are derived up to the third order. Then, a calibration method based on the generalized method of moments is proposed and discussed. An application to a rainfall time series from Uccle illustrates how this model can reproduce a trend for the average rainfall. This work opens new avenues for future developments on transient stochastic rainfall models and highlights the major challenges linked to this approach.     

Dynamics of giant mass transport in deep submarine environments: the Matakaoa Debris Flow,New Zealand

The Matakaoa Debris Flow (MDF) is a 200‐km‐long mass‐transport deposit resulting from the failure of the Matakaoa continental margin, northeast New Zealand, ca. 38–100 ky ago. In this study, high‐quality bathymetric and seismic reflection data are used to identify the morpho‐structural characters that reflect the kinematics of the MDF, as well as its interactions with basin sediments. We demonstrate how the transport energy, together with the local topography led to the present geometry and complex structure of the MDF deposits. The remarkable transport energy of the MDF is demonstrated by its dynamic impact on adjacent sedimentary series, including erosion of the substratum, shearing and compressional deformation. In the proximal zone of transport, momentous substratum erosion, demonstrated by giant tool marks and truncated sediments at the base of the debrite, triggered the excavation of a large volume (>200 km³) of basin sediments. The size of transported blocks (up to 3‐km long) is used to estimate the matrix yield strength in an early stage of transport. In the distal zone of transport, 100 km north of the source, seismic profiles show the propagation of thrust structures from the MDF into adjacent basin sediments. This study highlights that the remarkable volume of 2000 km³ of deposits partly resulted from the propagation of compressive structures within the basin sedimentary series to the front of the debrite.     

Stochastic tracking of mesoscale convective systems: evaluation in the West African Sahel

In this work we apply a recently proposed Bayesian multiple target tracking model to mesoscale convective systems tracking. This stochastic model follows the multiple hypothesis tracking paradigm and can handle a varying number of targets while detecting the target birth, death, split, and merge events. The model is tested experimentally with real MCS targets detected from meteosat IR data over the Sahelian region. The performance of the stochastic tracking is evaluated by comparing it qualitatively and quantitatively with well established deterministic methods.     

Quantifying the Morphological Print of Bedload Transport

Bedload and river morphology interact in a strong feedback manner. Bedload conditions the development of river morphology along different space and time scales; however, by concentrating the flow in preferential paths, a given morphology controls bedload for a given discharge. As bedload is a non‐linear response of shear stress, local morphology is likely to have a strong impact on bedload prediction when the shear stress is averaged over the section, as is usually done. This was investigated by comparing bedload measured in different bed morphologies (step‐pool, plane bed, riffle‐pool, braiding, and sand beds), with bedload measured in narrow flumes in the absence of any bed form, used here as a reference. The initial methodology consisted of fitting a bedload equation to the flume data. Secondly, the morphological signature of each river was studied as the distance to this referent equation. It was concluded that each morphology affects bedload in a different way. For a given average grain shear stress, the larger the river, the larger the deviation from the flume transport. Narrow streams are those morphologies that behave more like flumes; this is particularly true with flat beds, whereas results deviate from flumes to a greater extent in step‐pools. The riffle‐pool's morphology impacts bedload at different levels depending on the degree of bar development, considered here through the ratio D₈₄/D₅₀ which is used as a proxy for the local bed patchiness and morphology. In braiding rivers morphological effects are important but difficult to assess because width is dependent on transport rate. Bed morphology was found to have negligible effects in sand bed rivers where the Shields stress is usually sufficiently high to minimize the non‐linearity effects when hydraulics is averaged over the section. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydraulic,physical and rheological characteristics of rain‐triggered lahars at Semeru volcano,Indonesia

Lahars (volcanic debris flows) have been responsible for 40% of all volcanic fatalities over the past century. Mount Semeru (East Java, Indonesia) is a persistently active composite volcano that threatens approximately one million people with its lahars and pyroclastic flows. Despite their regularity, the behaviour and the propagation of these rain‐triggered lahars are poorly understood. In situ samples were taken from lahars in motion at two sites in the Curah Lengkong River, on the southeast flank of Semeru, providing estimates of the particle concentration, grain size spectrum, grain density and composition. This enables us to identify flow sediment from three categories of lahars: (a) hyperconcentrated flow, (b) non‐cohesive, clast‐ and matrix‐supported debris flow, and (c) muddy flood. To understand hyperconcentrated flow sediment transport processes, it is more appropriate to sample the active flows than the post‐event lahar deposits because in situ sampling retains the full spectrum of the grain‐size distribution. Rheometrical tests on materials sampled from moving hyperconcentrated flows were carried out using a laboratory vane rheometer. Despite technical difficulties, results obtained on the <63, <180, and <400 µm fractions of the sampled sediment, suggest a purely frictional behaviour. Importantly, and contrary to previous experiments conducted with monodisperse suspensions, our results do not show any transition towards a viscous behaviour for high shear rates. These data provide important constraints for future physical and numerical modelling of lahar flows. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Process oriented use of geostatistics to analyse creeping para‐glacial features

Complex para‐glacial systems may show signs of destabilization leading to frequent and potentially hazardous debris‐flows. Understanding creeping permafrost displacement over a period of time is therefore crucial for hazard management and risks assessment. This paper presents our methodology for estimating creeping permafrost displacement based upon data derived from various survey methods and demonstrates its relevance on the Glacier Bonnard system in southern Switzerland. Geostatistical processing allowed estimation of the displacement intensity over the area of interest, as well as assessment of the interpolation quality. Although the local measurement network needs to be refined, the results largely improve the understanding of the Bonnard para‐glacial system, though highlighting the need to locally refine the measurement network. In the present case, the destabilized front advances at ~1 m/a and the upstream creeping part at ~0.4 m/a. Variance analysis also provide objective thresholds that could be used to distinguish underlying physical processes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Role of the bedrock topography in the Quaternary filling of a giant estuarine basin: the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary,Eastern Canada

The geometry of estuarine and/or incised‐valley basins and their protected character compared with open sea basins are favourable for the preservation of sedimentary successions. The Lower St. Lawrence Estuary Basin (LSLEB, eastern Canada) is characterized by a thick (>400 m in certain areas) Quaternary succession. High‐ and very high‐resolution seismic reflection data, multibeam bathymetry coverage completed by core and chronostratigraphic data as well as a 3‐D seismic stratigraphic model are used to document the geometrical relationships between the bedrock and the Quaternary units of the LSLEB. The bedrock geometry of LSLEB is characterized by two large troughs that are interpreted as resulting mainly from repeated (?) periods of glacial overdeepening of a pre‐Quaternary drainage system. However, other mechanisms with complex feedback effects such as differential glacio‐isostatic uplift, erosion, sedimentary supply, and subsidence may have contributed to the formation of bedrock troughs. The two large bedrock troughs are mostly filled by ～200 m thick Wisconsinan (Marine Isotopic Stages 2–4) and possibly older sediments. Overlying units recorded the retreat of the Laurentian Ice Sheet during the Late Wisconsinan (Marine Isotopic Stage 2) and estuarine conditions during the Holocene. The strong correlation existing between the bedrock topography and the thickness of the Quaternary succession is indicative of the effectiveness of the LSLEB as a sediment trap.     

Spatial assessment of fishing effort around European marine reserves: implications for successful fisheries management

We examined the spatial dynamic of artisanal fishing fleets around five European marine protected areas (MPAs) to derive general implications for the evaluation of MPAs as fisheries management tools. The coastal MPAs studied were located off France, Malta and Spain and presented a variety of spatial designs and processes of establishment. We developed a standardized methodology to define factors influencing effort allocation and to produce fishing effort maps by merging GIS with geostatistical modelling techniques. Results revealed that in most cases the factors “distance to the no-take”, “water depth”, and “distance to the port” had a significant influence on effort allocation by the fishing fleets. Overall, we found local concentration of fishing effort around the MPA borders. Thus, neglecting the pattern of fishing effort distribution in evaluating MPA benefits, such as spillover of biomass, could hamper sound interpretation of MPAs as fisheries management tools.