Estimating the sensitivity of runoff to climate change in an alpine-valley watershed of Xinjiang,China

ABSTRACT

The spatial-temporal variation of runoff in an inland basin is very sensitive to climate change. Investigation of runoff change in arid areas is typically limited by lack of meteorological and hydrogeological data. This study focused on runoff change in the Yarkand River source area of the Tarim Basin, China, with the aim of analysing the influence of climate change on the response characteristics of discharge. Sensitivity analysis was introduced to reflect the degree of influence of climate on runoff. Based on the sensitivity factors, over 30 sets of schemes including the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report were simulated using the MIKE 11/NAM rainfall–runoff model and the response of runoff was analysed. The results indicate that there are significant correlations and synchronous fluctuations between runoff and precipitation, evaporation and temperature. The characteristics of the sensitivity of runoff can be fitted well by Bi-Gaussian functions. The functions show that high sensitivity indexes mainly appear in the interval of 165 ± 100 m³ s^-1. The influence of precipitation on runoff is greater than that of other climate factors. Through simulation using the NAM model, we found that change of annual runoff was related to the initial climate condition. Annual runoff will have an increasing trend if it has a strong sensitivity to the initial meteorological condition. Moreover, the runoff decreases linearly with evaporation. Also it has a positive relationship with temperature and precipitation. Across the four seasons, the impact in summer and winter is greater than that in spring and autumn. Estimation of the spatial-temporal influence of climate on runoff could provide insight for water resource development in arid areas.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor not assigned     

Improvement and comparison of the rainfall–runoff methods in SWAT at the monsoonal watershed of Baocun,Eastern China

ABSTRACT

A new physics-based rainfall–runoff method of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was developed, which integrates a water balance (WB) approach with the variable source area (WB-VSA). This approach was further compared with four methods—soil-water-dependent curve number (CN-Soil), evaporation-dependent curve number (CN-ET), Green and Ampt equation (G&A) and WB—in a monsoonal watershed, Eastern China. The regional sensitivity analysis shows that volumetric efficiency coefficient (VE) with river discharges is sensitive to the most parameters of all approaches. The results of model calibration against VE demonstrate that WB-VSA is the most accurate owing to its reflection of the spatial variation of runoff generation as affected by topography and soil properties. Other methods can also mimic baseflow well, but the G&A and CN-ET simulate floods much worse than the saturation excess runoff approaches (WB-VSA, WB and CN-Soil). Meanwhile, CN-Soil as an empirical method fails to simulate groundwater levels. By contrast, WB-VSA captures them best.

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae     

断层活动协调比计算方法的改进及震例分析

根据断层活动协调比的概念,讨论了起算点对协调比计算结果的影响,提出了移动窗计算断层活动协调比的方法以及离散度评定指标.震例分析结果表明,丽江7.0级地震前丽江场地断层活动协调比数值变化范围较大,分布较离散;震后数值相对稳定,离散度较低.反映了在孕震阶段断层的应变积累以及由其引起的3分量运动相互协调性较差;震后断层处于自由活动状态,积累的应变能得到释放,3分量运动相互协调一致.目前丽江场地断层活动协调比数值离散度处于低值,断层应变积累处于较低水平.     

服务器虚拟化技术在哈尔滨市防震减灾技术中心资源整合中的应用

阐述了哈尔滨市防震减灾技术中心引入VMware虚拟化技术对现有服务器进行整合,旨在利用虚拟化技术,提高地震系统中服务器资源利用率,增强系统可靠性和灵活性。     

我国碳排放效率的区域动态差异、敛散性及时变因素分析

把碳排放作为投入要素,依托投入导向的DEA模型,采用分省1996-2011年的相关数据,测算中国大陆26个省份碳排放效率.利用绝对β收敛理论检验了全国及东、中、西部地区碳排放效率的敛散性.从时间和空间两个维度考察了单位地区生产总值能耗、能源消费结构、经济发展水平、产业结构、外贸依存度、外资强度和所有制结构对碳排放效率的影响.碳排放效率在全国和东部地区存在绝对β收敛,而中部和西部地区则有发散的趋势.从时间上来看,影响碳排放效率的主要因素为外贸依存度、经济发展水平和单位地区生产总值能耗;从空间上来看,影响碳排放效率的主要因素为经济发展水平、外贸依存度和所有制结构.     

中国城市扩张态势与驱动机理研究学派综述

作为世界上最大的发展中国家,随着城市扩张问题的日益凸显,中国城市扩张研究也逐渐成为学术界关注的焦点。本文首先对国内外关于中国城市扩张速度与规模、模式与类型,以及城市空间结构演变的研究进行系统归纳;然后,在此基础上分别从经济学派、制度学派和经验学派的角度对中国城市扩张的驱动机理进行总结,并简要评述各学派研究的特点及局限性。笔者认为,中国的城市扩张具有明显的阶段性、区域性及等级性,即处于不同发展阶段不同区域的不同等级的城市表现出不同的扩张态势,其相应的扩张机理也不同。因此,关于中国城市扩张的后续研究应加强现阶段及长时间尺度研究,选取更具普适性案例,采用更加全面数据和综合的方法,注重不同学派视角的综合,对中国城市扩张进行更加全面与科学的研究。     

当前全球矿业形势分析与展望

全球矿业发展与工业化进程密切相关,具有与全球经济发展周期基本一致的显著的周期性特征。在同一个周期内,各种资源需求在时间上具有波次(递进)性,它决定着矿业的持续与繁荣。从2003开始全球矿业进入了第3个周期,其特征包括矿业产业集中度加剧、垄断特征更加显著、矿产品低成本时代终结等。同时,这一时期出现了大量国际金融资本进入矿产品市场的现象,使得矿产品价格体系趋于复杂化。从中长期来看,中国、印度、非洲等新兴经济体工业化、城镇化进程不会停滞,刚性资源需求将推动此轮超级周期继续前行。从中短期来看,欧美债务危机继续升级恶化,中东格局正发生着重大变化,全球经济二次探底风险愈发增大。在全球经济增长不如预期、矿产品需求下降、新增矿山产能释放和矿产品价格进入新一轮调整阶段的情况下,未来一段时期内,全球矿业形势将表现为"需求放缓、价格高位、震荡加剧"。     

安徽寿县新元古界一个滑塌-滑脱软沉积物变形复合构造的发现及地质初探

安徽寿县新元古界四十里长山组底部粉砂岩层中发现了一个滑塌-滑脱软沉积物变形复合构造,剖面观察显示,该沉积变形构造经历了滑塌变形、滑脱变形、震动液化变形等3次以上的变形过程,很好地保存了原始沉积面貌和沉积变形特征;分析该沉积变形构造的成因,发现变形构造属于软沉积物变形构造类型,形成于浅海陆棚边缘斜坡相带。引起软沉积物变形的动力是地震事件产生的多次震动波作用,造成软沉积物滑塌、滑脱褶皱、震动液化泄水等变形作用,形成了具有复杂变形特征的软沉积物变形复合体,是一次地震事件多次地震活动的沉积记录。     

遥感及地球物理方法在尉犁地区寻找隐伏岩体中的应用

尉犁兴地地区遥感影像信息分析与野外实地调查的实践表明,地质体与遥感信息、地球物理特征之间有密切的联系。依据遥感影像色调及影纹特征圈定地层边界效果显著。运用遥感与地球物理手段相结合的技术方法,对寻找隐伏岩体有独特的优势,是隐伏地区找矿的有效手段之一。