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61.
高精度定年的石笋记录有助于校正冰芯时标和理解千年尺度事件的驱动机制。基于湖北永兴洞YX288石笋5个高精度230Th年龄和264组氧同位素数据,重建了MIS4早期东亚季风水文循环演化过程。结合同一洞穴YX46记录,发现两条记录在重叠时段的波动特征高度一致,清晰地记录了持续时间较长的DO19.1事件和持续极短的DO19.2事件。石笋记录显示DO19.2和DO19.1事件的开始时间分别为约72.06 ka和69.40 ka,结束时间依次为约69.85 ka和69.03 ka,在误差范围内与格陵兰NGRIP冰芯AICC2012时标一致。这两个事件的持续时间依次约为2200 a和360 a。在DO19.2事件期间,石笋记录的东亚季风较为稳定,显著不同于格陵兰冰芯记录的温度持续下降的特征。这一季风稳定状态与南北两极间温度差的稳定波动特征较为一致,这也得到反映热带辐合带位置变化的Cariaco盆地反照率记录的支持,表明南北半球的温度变化对亚洲季风的综合影响。
相似文献62.
Discrete element method modeling of inherently anisotropic rocks under uniaxial compression loading 下载免费PDF全文
A new numerical approach is proposed in this study to model the mechanical behaviors of inherently anisotropic rocks in which the rock matrix is represented as bonded particle model, and the intrinsic anisotropy is imposed by replacing any parallel bonds dipping within a certain angle range with smooth‐joint contacts. A series of numerical models with β = 0°, 15°, 30°, 45°, 60°, 75°, and 90° are constructed and tested (β is defined as the angle between the normal of weak layers and the maximum principal stress direction). The effect of smooth‐joint parameters on the uniaxial compression strength and Young's modulus is investigated systematically. The simulation results reveal that the normal strength of smooth‐joint mainly affects the behaviors at high anisotropy angles (β > 45°), while the shear strength plays an important role at medium anisotropy angles (30°–75°). The normal stiffness controls the mechanical behaviors at low anisotropy angles. The angle range of parallel bonds being replaced plays an important role on defining the degree of anisotropy. Step‐by‐step procedures for the calibration of micro parameters are recommended. The numerical model is calibrated to reproduce the behaviors of different anisotropic rocks. Detailed analyses are conducted to investigate the brittle failure process by looking at stress‐strain behaviors, increment of micro cracks, initiation and propagation of fractures. Most of these responses agree well with previous experimental findings and can provide new insights into the micro mechanisms related to the anisotropic deformation and failure behaviors. The numerical approach is then applied to simulate the stress‐induced borehole breakouts in anisotropic rock formations at reduced scale. The effect of rock anisotropy and stress anisotropy can be captured. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
63.
Distinguishing streamflow trends caused by changes in climate,forest cover,and permafrost in a large watershed in northeastern China 下载免费PDF全文
Understanding how rivers respond to changes in land cover, climate, and subsurface conditions is critical for sustainably managing water resources and ecosystems. In this study, long‐term hydrologic, climate, and satellite data (1973–2012) from the Upper Tahe River watershed (2359 km2) in the Da Hinggan Mountains of northeast China were analysed to quantify the relative hydrologic effects of climate variability (system input) and the combined influences of forest cover change and permafrost thaw (system characteristics) on average annual streamflow (system response) using 2 methods: the sensitivity‐based method and the Kendall–Theil robust line method. The study period was subdivided into a forest harvesting period (1973–1987), a forest stability period (1988–2001), and a forest recovery period (2002–2012). The results indicated that the combined effects of forest harvesting and permafrost thaw on streamflow (+ 47.0 mm) from the forest harvesting period to the forest stability period was approximately twice as large as the effect associated with climate variability (+20.2 mm). Similarly, from the forest stability period to the forest recovery period, the decrease in average annual streamflow attributed to the combined effects of forest recovery and permafrost thaw (?38.0 mm) was much greater than the decrease due to climate variability (?22.2 mm). A simple method was used to separate the distinct impacts of forest cover change and permafrost thaw, but distinguishing these influences is difficult due to changes in surface and subsurface hydrologic connectivity associated with permafrost thaw. The results highlight the need to consider multiple streamflow drivers in future watershed and aquatic ecosystem management. Due to the ecological and hydrological susceptibility to disturbances in the Da Hinggan Mountains, forest harvesting will likely negatively impact ecohydrological processes in this region, and the effects of forest species transition in the forest recovery process should be further investigated. 相似文献
64.
Trend and extreme occurrence of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed at various time scales 下载免费PDF全文
Xixi Wang Xiaomin Yang Tingxi Liu Fengling Li Ruizhong Gao Limin Duan Yanyun Luo 《水文研究》2014,28(22):5547-5560
The confounding effects of step change invalidate the stationarity assumption of commonly used trend analysis methods such as the Mann–Kendall test technique, so previous studies have failed to explain inconsistencies between detected trends and observed large precipitation anomalies. The objectives of this study were to (1) formulate a trend analysis approach that considers nonstationarity due to step changes, (2) use this approach to detect trends and extreme occurrences of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed in North China, and (3) examine how runoff responds to precipitation trends in the study watershed. Our results indicate that annual precipitation underwent a marginal step jump around 1995. The significant annual downward trend after 1994 was primarily due to a decrease in summer rainfall; other seasons exhibited no significant precipitation trends. At a monthly scale, July rainfall after 1994 exhibited a significant downward trend, whereas precipitation in other months had no trend. The percentage of wet days also underwent a step jump around 1994 following a significant decreasing trend, although the precipitation intensity exhibited neither a step change nor any significant trend. However, both low‐frequency and high‐frequency precipitation events in the study watershed occurred more often after than before 1994; probably as either a result or an indicator of climate change. In response to these precipitation changes, the study watershed had distinctly different precipitation‐runoff relationships for observed annual precipitations of less than 300 mm, between 300 and 400 mm, and greater than 400 mm. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
65.
Surface roughness and slope gradient are two important factors influencing soil erosion. The objective of this study was to investigate the interaction of surface roughness and slope gradient in controlling soil loss from sloping farmland due to water erosion on the Loess Plateau, China. Following the surface features of sloping farmland in the plateau region, we manually prepared rough surfaces using four tillage practices (contour drilling, artificial digging, manual hoeing, and contour plowing), with a smooth surface as the control measure. Five slope gradients (3°, 5°, 10°, 15°, and 20°) and two rainfall intensities (60 and 90 mm/hr) were considered in the artificial rainfall simulation experiment. The results showed that the runoff volume and sediment yield increased with increasing slope gradient under the same tillage treatment. At gentle slope gradients (e.g., 3° and 5°), the increase in surface roughness prevented the runoff and sediment production, that is, the surface roughness reduced the positive effect of slope gradient on the runoff volume and sediment yield to a certain extent. At steep slope gradients, however, the enhancing effect of slope gradient on soil erosion gradually increased and surpassed the reduction effect of surface roughness. This study reveals the existence of a critical slope gradient that influences the interaction of surface roughness and slope gradient in controlling soil erosion on sloping farmland. If the slope gradient is equal to or less than the critical value, an increase in surface roughness would decrease soil erosion. Otherwise, the increase in surface roughness would be ineffective for preventing soil erosion. The critical slope gradient would be smaller under higher rainfall intensity. These findings are helpful for us to understand the process of soil erosion and relevant for supporting soil and water conservation in the Loess Plateau region of China. 相似文献
66.
67.
Multi‐temporal scale changes of streamflow and sediment load in a loess hilly watershed of China 下载免费PDF全文
Global climate change and diverse human activities have resulted in distinct temporal–spatial variability of watershed hydrological regimes, especially in water‐limited areas. This study presented a comprehensive investigation of streamflow and sediment load changes on multi‐temporal scales (annual, flood season, monthly and daily scales) during 1952–2011 in the Yanhe watershed, Loess Plateau. The results indicated that the decreasing trend of precipitation and increasing trend of potential evapotranspiration and aridity index were not significant. Significant decreasing trends (p < 0.01) were detected for both the annual and flood season streamflow, sediment load, sediment concentration and sediment coefficient. The runoff coefficient exhibited a significantly negative trend (p < 0.01) on the flood season scale, whereas the decreasing trend on the annual scale was not significant. The streamflow and sediment load during July–August contributed 46.7% and 86.2% to the annual total, respectively. The maximum daily streamflow and sediment load had the median occurrence date of July 31, and they accounted for 9.7% and 29.2% of the annual total, respectively. All of these monthly and daily hydrological characteristics exhibited remarkable decreasing trends (p < 0.01). However, the contribution of the maximum daily streamflow to the annual total progressively decreased (?0.07% year?1), while that of maximum daily sediment load increased over the last 60 years (0.08% year?1). The transfer of sloping cropland for afforestation and construction of check‐dams represented the dominant causes of streamflow and sediment load reductions, which also made the sediment grain finer. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
68.
Generation of continuous surface soil moisture dataset using combined optical and thermal infrared images 下载免费PDF全文
Surface soil moisture (SSM) is a critical variable for understanding water and energy flux between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. An easy to apply algorithm for deriving SSM time series that primarily uses temporal parameters derived from simulated and in situ datasets has recently been reported. This algorithm must be assessed for different biophysical and atmospheric conditions by using actual geostationary satellite images. In this study, two currently available coarse‐scale SSM datasets (microwave and reanalysis product) and aggregated in situ SSM measurements were implemented to calibrate the time‐invariable coefficients of the SSM retrieval algorithm for conditions in which conventional observations are rare. These coefficients were subsequently used to obtain SSM time series directly from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) images over the study area of a well‐organized soil moisture network named REMEDHUS in Spain. The results show a high degree of consistency between the estimated and actual SSM time series values when using the three SSM dataset‐calibrated time‐invariable coefficients to retrieve SSM, with coefficients of determination (R2) varying from 0.304 to 0.534 and root mean square errors ranging from 0.020 m3/m3 to 0.029 m3/m3. Further evaluation with different land use types results in acceptable debiased root mean square errors between 0.021 m3/m3 and 0.048 m3/m3 when comparing the estimated MSG pixel‐scale SSM with in situ measurements. These results indicate that the investigated method is practical for deriving time‐invariable coefficients when using publicly accessed coarse‐scale SSM datasets, which is beneficial for generating continuous SSM dataset at the MSG pixel scale. 相似文献
69.
A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions. 相似文献
70.