The first high-precision radial velocity search for extra-solar planets

The reflex motion of a star induced by a planetary companion is too small to detect by photographic astrometry. The apparent discovery in the 1960s of planetary systems around certain nearby stars, in particular Barnard’s star, turned out to be spurious. Conventional stellar radial velocities determined from photographic spectra at that time were also too inaccurate to detect the expected reflex velocity changes. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the introduction of solid-state, signal-generating detectors and absorption cells to impose wavelength fiducials directly on the starlight, reduced radial velocity errors to the point where such a search became feasible. Beginning in 1980, our team from UBC introduced an absorption cell of hydrogen fluoride gas in front of the CFHT coudé spectrograph and, for 12 years, monitored the radial velocities of some 29 solar-type stars. Since it was assumed that extra-solar planets would most likely resemble Jupiter in mass and orbit, we were awarded only three or four two-night observing runs each year. Our survey highlighted three potential planet hosting stars, γ Cep (K1 IV), β Gem (K0 III), and ? Eri (K2 V). The putative planets all resembled Jovian systems with periods and masses of: 2.5 years and 1.4 M_J, 1.6 years and 2.6 M_J, and 6.9 years and 0.9 M_J, respectively. All three were subsequently confirmed from more extensive data by the Texas group led by Cochran and Hatzes who also derived the currently accepted orbital elements.None of these three systems is simple. All five giant stars and the supergiant in our survey proved to be intrinsic velocity variables. When we first drew attention to a possible planetary companion to γ Cep in 1988 it was classified as a giant, and there was the possibility that its radial velocity variations and those of β Gem (K0 III) were intrinsic to the stars. A further complication for γ Cep was the presence of an unseen secondary star in an orbit with a period initially estimated at some 30 years. The implication was that the planetary orbit might not be stable, and a Jovian planet surviving so close to a giant then seemed improbable. Later observations by others showed the stellar binary period was closer to 67 years, the primary was only a sub-giant and a weak, apparently synchronous chromospheric variation disappeared. Chromospheric activity was considered important because κ¹ Cet, one of our program stars, showed a significant correlation of its radial velocity curve with chromospheric activity.? Eri is a young, magnetically active star with spots making it a noisy target for radial velocities. While the signature of a highly elliptical orbit (e = 0.6) has persisted for more than three planetary orbits, some feel that even more extensive coverage is needed to confirm the identification despite an apparent complementary astrometric acceleration detected with the Hubble Space Telescope.We confined our initial analyses of the program stars to looking for circular orbits. In retrospect, it appears that some 10% of our sample did in fact have Jovian planetary companions in orbits with periods of years.     

Confidence bounds on risk assessments for underground nuclear waste repositories

The estimation of risk confidence bounds is an important element of a comprehensive probabilistic risk assessment for a radioactive waste repository. Normal distribution bounds may be used in the asymptotic limit of a very large number of Monte Carlo simulations, but sharp skewness of the risk distribution may severely retard the convergence process. The Tchebycheff bounds are parameter-free and may be applied regardless of distribution, save for the finiteness of variance. These bounds may be generally applicable, but they are invariably very broad. Better parameter-free bounds for mean risk are presented here, based on an inequality originally derived by Guttman.     

MEG Investigation of Low Pressure Silica — Shell model for polarization

We present a two-shell polarization model for the α-quartz and α-cristobalite structures. By allowing for polarization, we correct problems encountered in purely ionic bonding treatments of tetrahedrally coordinated silica phases. The shell model predicts zero pressure structures in very good agreement with experiment using no empirical parameters. The behavior of the shell model α-quartz lattice upon compression shows dramatic improvement over the distorted, rigid lattice given by the ionic model.     

Groundwater contributions of flow and nitrogen in a headwater agricultural watershed

Nonpoint sources of nitrogen (N) and other nutrients are a major source of water pollution within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and other basins around the world. Human activities associated with agricultural practices can account for a large percentage of N loadings delivered to streams and rivers. This work aims to improve understanding of N transport from groundwater to surface waters, quantifying the principal hydrological processes driving water and N fluxes into and out of a headwater agricultural stream reach. The study site is a 175-m stream reach in a heavily cultivated 40-ha watershed in east-central Pennsylvania. This subwatershed is underlain by fractured shale bedrock, and receives most of its baseflow from groundwater, either by diffuse matrix discharge through the streambed or by localized discharge through riparian seeps. Samples of stream, seep, and shallow groundwater were collected approximately monthly under steady hydrologic conditions in 2017. Calculated matrix flow from hydraulic head and conductivity measurements paired with differential stream gauging was used to solve for the riparian seep flux using a mass balance approach. Riparian seep fluxes ranged from 45 to 217 m³/d, transporting 0.6–4.2 kg N d⁻¹ of nitrate-N from the fractured bedrock aquifer to the stream. Hydrochemical data suggest that the stream is mainly disconnected from the underlying aquifer and that seeps supply essentially all water and N to the system. Seeps are likely sourced with N in nearby agricultural fields and accelerated through the system with shorter residence times than shallow groundwater. Water isotope data reinforced this notion. This study underscores the importance of agriculture as a source of N to ground and surface waters. Identifying source areas that are causing groundwater enrichment of N and seep areas where N discharges to streams is beneficial for developing N pollution mitigation strategies and implementing management practices that aim to reduce nutrient loads to the Chesapeake Bay.     

Radar studies of the non-spherically symmetric solar corona

We review the results of radar studies of the Sun made at El Campo, Texas 1961–69 with particular emphasis on the record of observed solar radar cross sections. Using ray traces which include the effects of refraction, absorption, and scattering in non-spherically symmetric models of the corona, we investigate the role of focusing by large-scale coronal geometries in enhancing the radar cross section. We find that certain coronal geometries (e.g. disk-center coronal holes) can, in principle, significantly increase the radar cross section. However the observations of large cross sections do not correspond very well with periods when such large-scale focusing geometries existed in the corona. We conclude that the present dataset does not support the hypothesis that radar observations of the Sun will be useful in determining the properties of large-scale coronal features.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.