Regression‐based approach to low flow prediction in the Maryland Piedmont region under joint climate and land use change

We examine the low flow records for six urbanized watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region and develop regression equations to predict annual minimum low flow events. The effects of both future climate (based on precipitation and temperature projections from two climate models: Hadley and the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC)) and land use change are incorporated to illustrate possible future trends in low flows. A regression modelling approach is pursued to predict the minimum annual 7‐day low flow estimates for the proposed future scenarios. A regional regression model was calibrated with between 10 and 50 years of daily precipitation, daily average temperature, annual imperviousness, and the daily observed flow time‐series across six watersheds. Future simulations based on a 55 km² urbanizing watershed just north of Washington, DC, were performed. When land use and climate change were employed singly, the former predicted no trends in low flows and the latter predicted significant increasing trends under Hadley and no trends under CCC. When employed jointly, however, low flows were predicted to decrease significantly under CCC, whereas Hadley predicted no significant trends in low flows. Antecedent precipitation was the most influential predictor on low flows, followed by urbanization. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calibrating a glaciological model of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to present-day using field observations of relative sea level and ice extent

We constrain a three-dimensional thermomechanical model of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP) to the present-day using, primarily, observations of relative sea level (RSL) as well as field data on past ice extent. Our new model (Huy2) fits a majority of the observations and is characterised by a number of key features: (i) the ice sheet had an excess volume (relative to present) of 4.1 m ice-equivalent sea level at the LGM, which increased to reach a maximum value of 4.6 m at 16.5 ka BP; (ii) retreat from the continental shelf was not continuous around the entire margin, as there was a Younger Dryas readvance in some areas. The final episode of marine retreat was rapid and relatively late (c. 12 ka BP), leaving the ice sheet land based by 10 ka BP; (iii) in response to the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) the ice margin retreated behind its present-day position by up to 80 km in the southwest, 20 km in the south and 80 km in a small area of the northeast. As a result of this retreat the modelled ice sheet reaches a minimum extent between 5 and 4 ka BP, which corresponds to a deficit volume (relative to present) of 0.17 m ice-equivalent sea level. Our results suggest that remaining discrepancies between the model and the observations are likely associated with non-Greenland ice load, differences between modelled and observed present-day ice elevation around the margin, lateral variations in Earth structure and/or the pattern of ice margin retreat.     

Arsenic in an alkaline AMD treatment sludge: Characterization and stability under prolonged anoxic conditions

Lime treatment of acid mine drainage (AMD) generates large volumes of neutralization sludge that are often stored under water covers. The sludge consists mainly of calcite, gypsum and a widespread ferrihydrite-like Fe phase with several associated species of metal(loid) contaminants. The long-term stability of metal(loid)s in this chemically ill-defined material remains unknown. In this study, the stability and speciation of As in AMD sludge subjected to prolonged anoxic conditions is determined. The total As concentration in the sludge is 300 mg kg⁻¹. In the laboratory, three distinct water cover treatments were imposed on the sludge to induce different redox conditions (100%N₂, 100%N₂ + glucose, 95%N₂:5%H₂). These treatments were compared against a control of oxidized, water-saturated sludge. Electron micro-probe (EMP) analysis and spatially resolved synchrotron X-ray fluorescence (SXRF) results indicate that As is dominantly associated with Fe in the sludge. In all treatments and throughout the experiment, measured concentrations of dissolved As were less than 5 μg L⁻¹. Dissolved Mn concentration in the N₂ + glucose treatment increased significantly compared to other treatments. Manganese and As K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure spectroscopy (XANES) analyses showed that Mn was the redox-active element in the solid-phase, while As was stable. Arsenic(V) was still the dominant species in all water-covered sludges after 9 months of anoxic treatments. In contrast, Mn(IV) in the original sludge was partially reduced into Mn(II) in all water-covered sludges. The effect was most pronounced in the N₂ + glucose treatment, suggesting microbial reduction. Micro-scale SXRF and XANES analysis of the treated sludge showed that Mn(II) accumulated in areas already enriched in Fe and As. Overall, the study shows that AMD sludges remain stable under prolonged anoxic conditions. External sources of chemical reductants or soluble C were needed to induce lower redox state in the systems, and even under these imposed treatments, only weakly reducing conditions (Mn threshold) developed. The results suggest that As(V) in AMD sludge will remain stable under prolonged anoxic conditions as long as Mn(IV) is present and organic matter accumulation is negligible.     

High-frequency radar observations of the June 2013 US East Coast meteotsunami

We report here on the observation and offline detection of the meteotsunami off the New Jersey coast on June 13, 2013, using coastal radar systems and tide gauges. This work extends the previous observations of tsunamis originating in Japan and Indonesia. The radars observed the meteotsunami 23 km offshore, 47 min before it arrived at the coast. Subsequent observations showed it moving onshore. The neighboring tide gauge height reading provides confirmation of the radar observations near the shore.     

Glacial forest refugium in Howard Valley,South Island,New Zealand

Fossils of forest habitat beetles and leaves of Nothofagus menziesii provide evidence of a forest refugium at times between ca. 34 000 and ca. 18 500 cal. a BP at an upland site in Howard Valley, located adjacent to glaciated valleys in South Island, New Zealand. The stratigraphy of the glacial‐aged terrace sequence of organic‐rich silts and fluvial sand/gravels indicates that soil development occurred episodically for around 15 000 a. Fifty‐four beetle taxa represent seven habitat types: forest, forest or scrub, riparian and aquatic, litter, grass/tussock, marshland and moss habitats. Leaf and beetle fossils indicate that forest dominated by N. menziesii persisted at the site for most of the time period represented, and tree line taxa such as Taenarthrus sp. 1 (Carabidae) and Podocarpus sp. (Podocarpaceae) indicate that the site may represent the upper tree limit for full‐glacial time. The finding of forest at this elevated site adds to the growing fossil evidence for multiple forest refugia in New Zealand during the last glaciation and is consistent with the pollen records, which have consistently indicated the presence of forest species during the last glaciations. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improvement of distributed snowmelt energy balance modeling with MODIS‐based NDSI‐derived fractional snow‐covered area data

Describing the spatial variability of heterogeneous snowpacks at a watershed or mountain‐front scale is important for improvements in large‐scale snowmelt modelling. Snowmelt depletion curves, which relate fractional decreases in snow‐covered area (SCA) against normalized decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE), are a common approach to scale‐up snowmelt models. Unfortunately, the kinds of ground‐based observations that are used to develop depletion curves are expensive to gather and impractical for large areas. We describe an approach incorporating remotely sensed fractional SCA (FSCA) data with coinciding daily snowmelt SWE outputs during ablation to quantify the shape of a depletion curve. We joined melt estimates from the Utah Energy Balance Snow Accumulation and Melt Model (UEB) with FSCA data calculated from a normalized difference snow index snow algorithm using NASA's moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) visible (0·545–0·565 µm) and shortwave infrared (1·628–1·652 µm) reflectance data. We tested the approach at three 500 m² study sites, one in central Idaho and the other two on the North Slope in the Alaskan arctic. The UEB‐MODIS‐derived depletion curves were evaluated against depletion curves derived from ground‐based snow surveys. Comparisons showed strong agreement between the independent estimates. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Long-term Ecosystem Observatory: an integrated coastalobservatory

An integrated ocean observatory has been developed and operated in the coastal waters off the central coast of New Jersey, USA. One major goal for the Long-term Ecosystem Observatory (LEO) is to develop a real-time capability for rapid environmental assessment and physical/biological forecasting in coastal waters. To this end, observational data are collected from satellites, aircrafts, ships, fixed/relocatable moorings and autonomous underwater vehicles. The majority of the data are available in real-time allowing for adaptive sampling of episodic events and are assimilated into ocean forecast models. In this observationally rich environment, model forecast errors are dominated by uncertainties in the model physics or future boundary conditions rather than initial conditions. Therefore, ensemble forecasts with differing model parameterizations provide a unique opportunity for model refinement and validation. The system has been operated during three annual coastal predictive skill experiments from 1998 through 2000. To illustrate the capabilities of the system, case studies on coastal upwelling and small-scale biological slicks are discussed. This observatory is one part of the expanding network of ocean observatories that will form the basis of a national observation network     

Under the surface: Pressure-induced planetary-scale waves,volcanic lightning,and gaseous clouds caused by the submarine eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano

We present a narrative of the eruptive events culminating in the cataclysmic January 15, 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano by synthesizing diverse preliminary seismic, volcanological, sound wave, and lightning data available within the first few weeks after the eruption occurred. The first hour of eruptive activity produced fast-propagating tsunami waves, long-period seismic waves, loud audible sound waves, infrasonic waves, exceptionally intense volcanic lightning and an unsteady volcanic plume that transiently reached—at 58 ?km—the Earth's mesosphere. Energetic seismic signals were recorded worldwide and the globally stacked seismogram showed episodic seismic events within the most intense periods of phreatoplinian activity, and they correlated well with the infrasound pressure waveform recorded in Fiji. Gravity wave signals were strong enough to be observed over the entire planet in just the first few hours, with some circling the Earth multiple times subsequently. These large-amplitude, long-wavelength atmospheric disturbances come from the Earth's atmosphere being forced by the magmatic mixture of tephra, melt and gasses emitted by the unsteady but quasi-continuous eruption from 0402±1–1800 UTC on January 15, 2022. Atmospheric forcing lasted much longer than rupturing from large earthquakes recorded on modern instruments, producing a type of shock wave that originated from the interaction between compressed air and ambient (wavy) sea surface. This scenario differs from conventional ideas of earthquake slip, landslides, or caldera collapse-generated tsunami waves because of the enormous (～1000x) volumetric change due to the supercritical nature of volatiles associated with the hot, volatile-rich phreatoplinian plume. The time series of plume altitude can be translated to volumetric discharge and mass flow rate. For an eruption duration of ～12 ?h, the eruptive volume and mass are estimated at 1.9 ?km³ and ～2 900 ?Tg, respectively, corresponding to a VEI of 5–6 for this event. The high frequency and intensity of lightning was enhanced by the production of fine ash due to magma—seawater interaction with concomitant high charge per unit mass and the high pre-eruptive concentration of dissolved volatiles. Analysis of lightning flash frequencies provides a rapid metric for plume activity and eruption magnitude. Many aspects of this eruption await further investigation by multidisciplinary teams. It represents a unique opportunity for fundamental research regarding the complex, non-linear behavior of high energetic volcanic eruptions and attendant phenomena, with critical implications for hazard mitigation, volcano forecasting, and first-response efforts in future disasters.