Numerical simulation of the tsunami generated by a past catastrophic landslide on the volcanic island of Ischia, Italy

The island of Ischia, Gulf of Naples, Italy, like many other volcanic islands is affected by mass failures, that are mainly related to secondary volcanic processes such as slope steepening and seismic shaking. The block resurgence of its main relief, Mount Epomeo, has been recognised to contribute cyclically to mass instability and cause landslides, that occasionally may reach the sea and start tsunamis. In this work we explore the consequences of the Ischia Debris Avalanche (IDA), a flank collapse that occurred in historical times, and involved the whole Mount Epomeo edifice including its submarine portion, and that may have caused gigantic sea waves affecting all the coasts of Ischia and of the Gulf of Naples. The IDA and the generated tsunami have been taken as the worst-case scenario for the occurrence of a new tsunami in the area. They have been simulated through numerical codes developed and maintained by the University of Bologna. The simulation shows that the IDA-induced tsunami attacks severely all the coasts of the Gulf of Naples with the highest waves obtained for the island of Ischia, the island of Capri and the peninsula of Sorrento. The propagation pattern of the IDA tsunami can be used to get hints on the impact that such an event may have had on early populations habiting Gulf of Naples, but also to get clues on the area that could be most severely hit by a tsunami generated by a smaller-scale landslide that may occur in the same source zone.     

Two GUIs-based analysis tool for spectroradiometer data pre-processing

A new graphical user interface (GUI) for pre-processing reflectance spectra, built using MATLAB and expressly designed for the ASD FieldSpec® spectroradiometer, was developed to solve problems that generally affect experimental ASD data. The GUI is characterised by an easily readable, graphic visualisation of spectra, from which the absorption band depth (ABD) can be obtained for a selected wavelength. The output format of the ASD data is a binary file with an .asd extension. The binary file, that provides a single spectrum, can be processed using a software functionality, by means of a GUI, that allows to select one or more binary files to produce a spectral library in a unique .txt file. The spectral reflectance is re-calibrated with the “convex-hull” methodology to eliminate the convex shape, which is typical of reflectance spectra. Different examples of the use of the new GUI are provided.     

A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

The meteoritic origin of Tutankhamun's iron dagger blade

Scholars have long discussed the introduction and spread of iron metallurgy in different civilizations. The sporadic use of iron has been reported in the Eastern Mediterranean area from the late Neolithic period to the Bronze Age. Despite the rare existence of smelted iron, it is generally assumed that early iron objects were produced from meteoritic iron. Nevertheless, the methods of working the metal, its use, and diffusion are contentious issues compromised by lack of detailed analysis. Since its discovery in 1925, the meteoritic origin of the iron dagger blade from the sarcophagus of the ancient Egyptian King Tutankhamun (14th C. BCE) has been the subject of debate and previous analyses yielded controversial results. We show that the composition of the blade (Fe plus 10.8 wt% Ni and 0.58 wt% Co), accurately determined through portable x‐ray fluorescence spectrometry, strongly supports its meteoritic origin. In agreement with recent results of metallographic analysis of ancient iron artifacts from Gerzeh, our study confirms that ancient Egyptians attributed great value to meteoritic iron for the production of precious objects. Moreover, the high manufacturing quality of Tutankhamun's dagger blade, in comparison with other simple‐shaped meteoritic iron artifacts, suggests a significant mastery of ironworking in Tutankhamun's time.     

Infiltration effects on a two-dimensional molecular dynamics model of landslides

We propose a two-dimensional computational model for deep landslides triggered by rainfall, based on interacting particles or grains. The model describes a vertical section of a fictitious granular material along a slope, in order to study the behavior of a wide-thickness landslide. The triggering of the landslide is caused by the exceeding of two conditions: a threshold speed and a condition on the static friction of the particles, the latter based on the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion (Coulomb in Mem Acad R Div Sav 7:343–387, 1776; Mohr in Abhandlungen aus dem Gebiete der Technischen Mechanik. Ernst, Berlin, 1914). The interparticle interactions are represented as a potential that, in the absence of suitable experimental data and due to the arbitrariness of the grain dimension, is modeled similarly to the Lennard-Jones’ one (Lennard-Jones in Proc R Soc Lond A 106(738):463–477, 1924), i.e., with an attractive and a repulsive part. For the updating of the particle positions, we use a molecular dynamics method, which is quite suitable for this type of systems (Herrmann and Luding in Continuum Mech Thermodyn 10:189–231, 1998). An infiltration scheme is introduced for modeling the increasing pore pressure due to the rainfall. Finally, we also introduce the viscosity in the dynamical equations of motion. The statistical characterization and dynamical behavior of the results of simulations are quite satisfactory relative to real landslides: We obtain a power law distribution of landslide triggering times, and the velocity patterns are typical of real cases, including the acceleration progression. Therefore, we can claim that this type of modeling can represent a new method to simulate landslides triggered by rainfall.     

Distributions-oriented wind forecast verification by a hidden Markov model for multivariate circular–linear data

Winds from the North–West quadrant and lack of precipitation are known to lead to an increase of PM10 concentrations over a residential neighborhood in the city of Taranto (Italy). In 2012 the local government prescribed a reduction of industrial emissions by 10% every time such meteorological conditions are forecasted 72 h in advance. Wind forecasting is addressed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric simulation system by the Regional Environmental Protection Agency. In the context of distributions-oriented forecast verification, we propose a comprehensive model-based inferential approach to investigate the ability of the WRF system to forecast the local wind speed and direction allowing different performances for unknown weather regimes. Ground-observed and WRF-forecasted wind speed and direction at a relevant location are jointly modeled as a 4-dimensional time series with an unknown finite number of states characterized by homogeneous distributional behavior. The proposed model relies on a mixture of joint projected and skew normal distributions with time-dependent states, where the temporal evolution of the state membership follows a first order Markov process. Parameter estimates, including the number of states, are obtained by a Bayesian MCMC-based method. Results provide useful insights on the performance of WRF forecasts in relation to different combinations of wind speed and direction.     

Chandra smells a RRAT

“Rotating RAdio Transients” (RRATs) are a newly discovered astronomical phenomenon, characterised by occasional brief radio bursts, with average intervals between bursts ranging from minutes to hours. The burst spacings allow identification of periodicities, which fall in the range 0.4 to 7 seconds. The RRATs thus seem to be rotating neutron stars, albeit with properties very different from the rest of the population. We here present the serendipitous detection with the Chandra X-ray Observatory of a bright point-like X-ray source coincident with one of the RRATs. We discuss the temporal and spectral properties of this X-ray emission, consider counterparts in other wavebands, and interpret these results in the context of possible explanations for the RRAT population. B.M.G. acknowledges the support of NASA through LTSA grant NAG5-13023 and of an Alfred P. Sloan Fellowship.     

Retrogressive fabric development during exhumation of the Voltri Massif (Ligurian Alps,Italy): arguments for an extensional origin and implications for the Alps–Apennines linkage

Geological mapping coupled with structural investigations carried out in the Voltri Massif (eastern Ligurian Alps, Italy) provide new data for the interpretation of the tectonic context controlling main fabric development during exhumation of its high-pressure core. The Voltri Massif is here interpreted as a c. 30 km-long eclogite-bearing, asymmetric dome formed by the progressive verticalisation of the regional, second-phase mylonitic foliation developed during retrogressive greenschist metamorphic conditions. In this light, the exhumation history is driven by a ductile-to-brittle extensional process, operating through low-angle, top-to-the-W multiple detachment systems. A Late Eocene–Early Oligocene age for this extensional episode is proposed on the basis of structural correlations, stratigraphic and radiometric constraints. In this scenario, the Voltri Massif is interpreted as an extensional domain developed to accommodate the Late Eocene–Early Oligocene arching of the Western Alps–Northern Apennines orogenic system.