Verification of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model when Forecasting Daily Surface Conditions in Southern Alberta

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was compared with daily surface observations to verify the accuracy of the WRF model in forecasting surface temperature, pressure, precipitation, wind speed, and direction. Daily forecasts for the following two days were produced at nine locations across southern Alberta, Canada. Model output was verified using station observations to determine the differences in forecast accuracy for each season.

Although there were seasonal differences in the WRF model, the summer season forecasts generally had the greatest accuracy, determined by the lowest root mean square errors, whereas the winter season forecasts were the least accurate. The WRF model generally produced skillful forecasts throughout the year although with a smaller diurnal temperature range than observed. The WRF model forecast the prevailing wind direction more accurately than other directions, but it tended to slightly overestimate precipitation amounts. A sensitivity analysis consisting of three microphysics schemes showed relatively minor differences between simulated precipitation as well as 2?m surface temperatures.     

Die Einwirkung des Windes auf den mittleren Wasserstand der Deutschen Bucht vom 15. Februar bis 6. März 1951

Zusammenfassung Aus den Wasserstandsaufzeichnungen von zwölf Schwimmer-Schreibpegeln und sechs Hochseepegeln im Gebiet der inneren Deutschen Bucht wurden durch Eliminierung des Gezeitenanteils Windstaukurven bestimmt. Der Verlauf der Kurven wurde mit der Entwicklung des Windes über der mittleren und südlichen Nordsee verglichen und teilweise in topographischen Karten dargestellt, die von sechs zu sechs Stunden die Lage des mittleren Wasserstandes in der Deutschen Bucht an Hand von Linien gleichen Windstaus enthalten. Die Wirkung auflandiger und ablandiger Winde sowie des Luftdrucks wird besprochen. Die Ergebnisse werden mit den Untersuchungen anderer Autoren verglichen.

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The wind's effect on the mean water level in the German Bight as observed between February 15th and March 6th, 1951

Summary By eliminating the tidal portions from the records of twelve self recording tide gauges and six high sea tide gauges in the inner German Bight curves of the wind produced disturbance of the water level were found. The curves were compared with the development of the wind in the central and southern parts of the North Sea. Proceeding from the curves bearing on the periods from 17th to 23rd February and from 2nd to 5th March, 1951, topographical charts for every six hours were plotted on which the mean water level in the German Bight is represented by co-disturbance lines. The effects of on-shore and off-shore winds as well as the influence of atmospheric pressure are discussed and the results are compared with the investigations of other authors.

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Effet du vent sur le niveau moyen de la mer devant les côtes allemandes de la mer du Nord (du golfe Allemand) d'après les observations du 15 février au 6 mars 1951

Résumé En éliminant l'effet de la marée contenu dans les enregistrements de douze marégraphes enregistreurs et de six marégraphes plongeurs installés à l'intérieur du golfe Allemand on obtient les courbes de la montée du niveau de la mer due à la force du vent. Ces courbes sont comparées avec le développement du vent dans la zone centrale et la zone méridionale de la mer du Nord, et partant des courbes relatives à la période du 17 au 23 février et celle du 2 au 5 mars 1951, on a établi des cartes topographiques du niveau de la mer dans le golfe Allemand pour toutes les six heures à l'aide de lignes d'égale montée du niveau due à la force du vent. L'effet des vents de mer et celui des vents de terre ainsi que l'influence de la pression atmosphérique sont discutés. Les résultats de ce travail sont comparés avec les recherches faites par d'autres auteurs.

     

Der Einfluß der Küstengestalt und des vorgelagerten Meeresbodens auf den windbedingten Anstau des Wassers,betrachtet am Beispiel der Westküste Schleswig-Holsteins

Zusammenfassung Die Einwirkung des Windes auf den Wasserstand bei Hochwasser entlang der deutschen Nordseeküste ist im allgemeinen verschieden. Die Gründe hierfür sind der ungleichmäßige Küstenverlauf und das von zahlreichen Prielen durchzogene flache Küstenvorland. Ausführliche Methoden zur Vorausberechnung des Windstaus unter Beachtung dieser morphologischen Bedingungen liegen noch nicht vor. Es wird deshalb ein Verfahren vorgeschlagen, den Windstau entlang der Küste im Anschluß an den Windstau eines geeigneten Bezugsortes zu bestimmen. Am Beispiel von acht Häfen der schleswig-holsteinischen Westküste wird gezeigt, daß dies mit gutem Erfolg möglich ist. Es wird eine Tabelle vorgelegt, die nach diesem Vorschlag beim Deutschen Hydrographischen Institut berechnet wurde und seit einiger Zeit für die Wasserstandsvorhersagen im Windstau- und Sturmflutwarndienst dieses Institutes verwendet wird. Die Tabelle enthält den Windstauunterschied der acht Orte gegen Cuxhaven in Abhängigkeit von Windrichtung und -stärke. Der Einfluß des Windes auf den Wasserstand wird für die Häfen einzeln besprochen. Die Untersuchung des Verhaltens der Häfen untereinander führt zur Aufstellung von sogenannten Normalgefällen. Abschließend werden Betrachtungen über die Genauigkeit des Verfahrens, die sich als befriedigend ergibt, angestellt.

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The influence exercised by the coast's shape and the topography of the tidal flats on the piling up of water due to stress of wind, exemplified by the conditions on the coast of Schleswig-Holstein

Summary The influences exercised by the wind on the water level at high water along the German North Sea coast show, in general, great differences which are due to the irregular coast line and the tidal flats with their numerous transversal tideways. Detailed methods of forecasting the piling up of water which take into consideration this sort of morphological conditions are so far not developed. Therefore, a method is proposed which permits to determine the piling up of water along the coast by relating it to the piling up at a suitable port of reference. Eight ports on the coast of Schleswig-Holstein are chosen as examples; they show that good results will be obtained from this method. A table is submitted which has been calculated by the German Hydrographic Institute in accordance with this proposal and which is used for the prediction of water level by the Storm Surge Warning Service of this institute. The table includes the difference in height of the piling up phenomenon at the eight places as compared with the data obtained at the port of Cuxhaven as a function of direction and strength of wind. The wind's influence on the water level at the different ports is discussed in detail. The behaviour of the eight ports is studied and a list of normal gradients is drawn up. In conclusion, the accuracy of the method is considered and is found to be satisfactory.

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L'influence de la configuration de la côte et des bas-fonds sur la montée du niveau due à la pression du vent, phénomène étudié à l'exemple de la côte du Schleswig-Holstein

Résumé La montée du niveau de la mer à l'époque de la pleine mer qui est causée par le vent subit, en général, des variations tout le long de la côte allemande de la mer du Nord. Les causes en sont le contour irrégulier de la côte et les bas-fonds traversés par beaucoup de petits chenaux de marée. Il n'existe pas encore de méthodes précises qui permettent à la fois de prédire la montée du niveau en tenant compte de ces conditions morphologiques. Donc, pour déterminer la montée du niveau le long de la côte, l'auteur propose un procédé qui se base sur la montée de niveau dans un port de référence convenable. A l'exemple de huit ports sur la côte d'ouest du Schleswig-Holstein, il montre que ce procédé donne de bons résultats. Une table est présentée qui fut calculée à l'Institut Hydrographique Allemand en conformité de cette proposition et qui y est employée depuis quelque temps pour les prévisions quotidiennes du niveau de la mer. La table contient les différences en montée du niveau entre les huit ports et le port de Cuxhaven en fonction de la direction et de la force du vent. L'influence du vent sur le niveau d'eau de chacun de ces huit ports est discutée. Le comportement des huit ports est étudie et il en résulte une table de gradients normaux. Enfin, l'auteur considère la précision du procédé qu'il trouve satisfaisante.

     

Über die komplexe Natur des Seeganges

Zusammenfassung Unter der Annahme, daß der Seegang nacheinander drei Hauptentwicklungsstufen durchläuft, bis er voll ausgereift ist, lassen sich Beziehungen zwischen den charakteristischen Wellengrößen, der Windgeschwindigkeit, der Wellenlaufstrecke und der Zeitdauer der Windeinwirkung ableiten. Diese Beziehungen sind in graphischer Form für die praktische Seegangsvorhersage dargestellt. Sie gestatten u. a. die Vorausbestimmung der mittleren Periode, d. h. des Mittelwertes der Zeitintervalle zwischen aufeinanderfolgenden Wellenkämmen an einem festen Ort, der häufigsten Periode, der Breite des Periodenspektrums sowie der mittleren und maximalen Wellenhöhe.

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On the complexity of wind waves — 2^nd part: The growth of waves under the wind's influence

Summary Proceeding from the supposition that wind generated waves have to pass through three principal stages before they will be fully developed, one may establish relations between wind velocity, fetch, duration of wind action, and the characteristic wave dimensions. Graphical representations of these relations are given for the practice of wave forecasting. Among others, they allow to predict the mean period, i. e. the mean value of the time intervals between the passage of successive wave crests at a given point, the most frequent period and the width of the spectrum of periods as well as the mean and maximum wave heights.

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La nature complexe des vagues de vent- 2^ième partie: Accroissement des vagues sous l'effect du vent

Résumé En supposant que les vagues de vent doivent parcourir trois phases principales pour atteindre les maxima de leurs dimensions et de leur force on peut établir des relations entre la vitesse du vent, le fetsch, la durée de l'action du vent et les dimensions caractéristiques des vagues. Pour les besoins de la prévision pratique des vagues de vent on a établi des représentations graphiques de ces relations qui permettent entre autres de prévoir la période moyenne, c'est à dire de prévoir la moyenne des intervalles de temps entre le passage par un point donné des crêtes des vagues consécutives, la période la plus fréquence, la largeur du spectre de la période et les moyennes et maxima des hauteurs des vagues.

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Aus den Arbeiten des Department of Meteorology and Oceanography an der New York University für das Office of Naval Research, Washington, D. C., unter Contract No. Nonr — 285(05).     

The Evolution of the Milky way

A two-dimensional chemodynamical model of the Milky Way Galaxy is presented that can account for the structural, kinematical, and chemical pecularities of the galactic components in a self-consistent way. The dynamics of three stellar components and the multi-phase interstellar medium consisting of clouds and intercloud gas are followed in detail. Mass interchange and energetic interaction processes between the stars and the gas phases are treated simultaneously according to the astrophysical experience including star formation, supernovae type I and II, planetary nebulae, stellar winds, evaporation and condensation, drag, cloud collisions, heating and cooling, and stellar nucleosynthesis. These processes are coupling large ranges on temporal and spatial scales, and allow for feedback and self-regulation mechanisms, which play a significant role in galactic evolution. In comparison with observations the capability of the chemodynamical treatment is convincingly proved by the excellent agreement with various observations. In addition, also well-known problems (G-dwarf problem, the discrepancy between local effective yields, etc.), which so far could be only explained by artificial constraints, are solved in the global scenario. Here we wish also to focus on temporal behaviours of the radial abundance gradient and abundance ratios in order to stimulate further more specific observations and to make particular predictions which can test the validity of used model ingredients like stellar yields. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

European Surface Pressure Patterns for Months with Outstanding Climatic Anomalies During the Sixteenth Century

Monthly mean surface pressure patterns in the European area are reconstructed for those winter and summer seasons of the 16th century with outstanding climatic anomalies being either widespread over Europe or remarkably intensive in some European regions. From the available documentary information about weather characteristics and their sequences, it proved possible to infer prevalent processes of lower tropospheric advection of typical air masses and to assess the position and strength of major surface pressure centres on a monthly scale. For comparison with modern pressure patterns, monthly mean sea level pressure (SLP) grids from the 20th century have been selected for seasons with similar climatic anomalies. There are broad coincidences between these pressure patterns of the 16th and the 20th centuries except for cold summer seasons. Finally, results from the 16th century are discussed in terms of circulation dynamics (different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter, decreasing frequency of anticyclonic ridging in summer).     

Internal morphology, habit and U-Th-Pb microanalysis of amphibolite-to-granulite facies zircons: geochronology of the Ivrea Zone (Southern Alps)

Several types of growth morphologies and alteration mechanisms of zircon crystals in the high-grade metamorphic Ivrea Zone (IZ) are distinguished and attributed to magmatic, metamorphic and fluid-related events. Anatexis of pelitic metasediments in the IZ produced prograde zircon overgrowths on detrital cores in the restites and new crystallization of magmatic zircons in the associated leucosomes. The primary morphology and Th-U chemistry of the zircon overgrowth in the restites show a systematic variation apparently corresponding to the metamorphic grade: prismatic (prism-blocked) low-Th/U types in the upper amphibolite facies, stubby (fir-tree zoned) medium-Th/U types in the transitional facies and isometric (roundly zoned) high-Th/U types in the granulite facies. The primary crystallization ages of prograde zircons in the restites and magmatic zircons in the leucosomes cannot be resolved from each other, indicating that anatexis in large parts of the IZ was a single and short lived event at 299 ± 5 Ma (95% c. l.). Identical U/Pb ages of magmatic zircons from a metagabbro (293 ± 6 Ma) and a metaperidotite (300 ± 6 Ma) from the Mafic Formation confirm the genetic context of magmatic underplating and granulite facies anatexis in the IZ. The U-Pb age of 299 ± 5 Ma from prograde zircon overgrowths in the metasediments also shows that high-grade metamorphic (anatectic) conditions in the IZ did not start earlier than 20 Ma after the Variscan amphibolite facies metamorphism in the adjacent Strona–Ceneri Zone (SCZ). This makes it clear that the SCZ cannot represent the middle to upper crustal continuation of the IZ. Most parts of zircon crystals that have grown during the granulite facies metamorphism became affected by alteration and Pb-loss. Two types of alteration and Pb-loss mechanisms can be distinguished by cathodoluminescence imaging: zoning-controlled alteration (ZCA) and surface-controlled alteration (SCA). The ZCA is attributed to thermal and/or decompression pulses during extensional unroofing in the Permian, at or earlier than 249 ± 7 Ma. The SCA is attributed to the ingression of fluids at 210 ± 12 Ma, related to hydrothermal activity during the breakup of the Pangaea supercontinent in the Upper Triassic/Lower Jurassic. Received: 7 July 1998 / Accepted: 4 November 1998     

Pure elastic stiffness of sand represented by response envelopes derived from cyclic triaxial tests with local strain measurements

Acta Geotechnica - The elastic stiffness of a fine sand at small to moderate strains ( $$\varepsilon \le 2 \times 10^{-4}$$ ) has been studied based on cyclic triaxial tests on cube-shaped samples...     

Structural control of groundwater flow regimes and groundwater chemistry along the lower reaches of the Zerka River,West Jordan,using remote sensing,GIS, and field methods

A hydrogeological study was completed within a sub-catchment of the Zerka River drainage basin, in western Jordan. The system is characterized by anticlinal bending with an axis trending SSW–NNE and plunging a few degrees in the SSW direction. The anticlinal structure diverts groundwater flow towards the SSW while the strike-slipe faults cause the groundwater to diverge where the fault is perpendicular to the groundwater flow lines, and to converge where the fault is parallel to the groundwater flow lines. A direct relationship was found between the location of springs and the type of groundwater flow with regard to the amount of discharge wherein large spring discharges are located in zones of converging groundwater flow lines. In areas where faults are not abundant, the groundwater retention time in the aquifers is long and a zonation of the electrical conductivity was detected due to mineral dissolution. By controlling groundwater flow, the anticlinal setting produces three genetic groups of groundwater flow systems: (1) alkaline–earth alkaline water which is predominately a bicarbonate-type composition, (2) alkaline–earth alkaline water which is predominately bicarbonate–sulfate, and (3) alkaline–earth alkaline water with a high alkaline component.     

Dust ejection from planetary bodies by temperature gradients: Laboratory experiments

Laboratory experiments show that dusty bodies in a gaseous environment eject dust particles if they are illuminated. We find that even more intense dust eruptions occur when the light source is turned off. We attribute this to a compression of gas by thermal creep in response to the changing temperature gradients in the top dust layers. The effect is studied at a light flux of 13 kW/m² and 1 mbar ambient pressure. The effect is applicable to protoplanetary disks and Mars. In the inner part of protoplanetary disks, planetesimals can be eroded especially at the terminator of a rotating body. This leads to the production of dust which can then be transported towards the disk edge or the outer disk regions. The generated dust might constitute a significant fraction of the warm dust observed in extrasolar protoplanetary disks. We estimate erosion rates of about 1 kg s^?1 for 100 m parent bodies. The dust might also contribute to subsequent planetary growth in different locations or on existing protoplanets which are large enough not to be susceptible to particle loss by light induced ejection. Due to the ejections, planetesimals and smaller bodies will be accelerated or decelerated and drift outward or inward, respectively. The effect might also explain the entrainment of dust in dust devils on Mars, especially at high altitudes where gas drag alone might not be sufficient.