Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.     

Th sorption and export models in the water column: A review

Over the past few decades, the radioisotope pair of ²³⁸U / ²³⁴Th has been widely and increasingly used to describe particle dynamics and particle export fluxes in a variety of aquatic systems. The present paper is one of five review articles dedicated to ²³⁴Th. It is focused on the models associated with ²³⁴Th whereas the companion papers (same issue) are focused on present and future methodologies and techniques (Rutgers van der Loeff et al.), C / ²³⁴Th ratios (Buesseler et al.), ²³⁴Th speciation (Santschi et al.) and present and future applications of ²³⁴Th [Waples, J.T., Benitez-Nelson, C.R., Savoye, N., Rutgers van der Loeff, M., Baskaran, M., Gustafsson, Ö., this issue. An Introduction to the application and future use of ²³⁴Th in aquatic systems. Marine Chemistry, FATE special issue]. In this paper, we review current ²³⁴Th scavenging models and discuss the relative importance of the non-steady state and physical terms associated with the most commonly used model to estimate ²³⁴Th flux. Based on this discussion we recommend that for future work the use of models should be accompanied by a discussion of the effect that model and data uncertainty have on the model results. We also suggest that future field work incorporate repeat occupations of sample sites on time scales of 1–4 weeks in order to evaluate steady state versus non-steady state estimates of ²³⁴Th export, especially during high flux events (> ca. 800 dpm m^− 2 d^− 1). Finally, knowledge of the physical oceanography of the study area is essential, particularly in ocean margins and in areas of established upwelling (e.g., Equatorial Pacific). These suggestions will greatly enhance the application of ²³⁴Th as a tracer of particle dynamics and flux in more complicated regimes.     

Grid resolution study of ground water flow and transport

Three-dimensional grids representing a heterogeneous, ground water system are generated at 10 different resolutions in support of a site-scale flow and transport modeling effort. These grids represent hydrostratigraphy near Yucca Mountain, Nevada, consisting of 18 stratigraphic units with contrasting fluid flow and transport properties. The grid generation method allows the stratigraphy to be modeled by numerical grids of different resolution so that comparison studies can be performed to test for grid quality and determine the resolution required to resolve geologic structure and physical processes such as fluid flow and solute transport. The process of generating numerical grids with appropriate property distributions from geologic conceptual models is automated, thus making the entire process easy to implement with fewer user-induced errors. The series of grids of various resolutions are used to assess the level at which increasing resolution no longer influences the flow and solute transport results. Grid resolution is found to be a critical issue for ground water flow and solute transport. The resolution required in a particular instance is a function of the feature size of the model, the intrinsic properties of materials, the specific physics of the problem, and boundary conditions. The asymptotic nature of results related to flow and transport indicate that for a hydrologic model of the heterogeneous hydrostratigraphy under Yucca Mountain, a horizontal grid spacing of 600 m and vertical grid spacing of 40 m resolve the hydrostratigraphic model with sufficient precision to accurately model the hypothetical flow and solute transport to within 5% of the value that would be obtained with much higher resolution.     

Rutile occurrence and trace element behavior in medium-grade metasedimentary rocks: example from the Erzgebirge, Germany

Metamorphic textures in medium-grade (~500–550°C) metasedimentary rocks from the Erzgebirge give evidence of prograde rutile crystallization from ilmenite. Newly-crystallized grains occur as rutile-rich polycrystalline aggregates that pseudomorph the shape of the ilmenites. In-situ trace element data (EMP and SIMS) show that rutiles from the higher-grade samples record large scatter in Nb content and have Nb/Ti ratios higher than coexisting ilmenite. This behavior can be predicted using prograde rutile crystallization from ilmenite and indicates that rutiles are reequilibrating their chemistry with remaining ilmenites. On the contrary, rutiles from the lowest grade samples (~480°C) have Nb/Ti ratios that are similar to the ones in ilmenite. Hence, rutiles from these samples did not equilibrate their chemistry with remaining ilmenites. Our data suggest that temperature may be one of the main factors determining whether or not the elements are able to diffuse between the phases and, therefore, reequilibrate. Newly-crystallized rutiles yield temperatures (from ~500 to 630°C, Zr-in-rutile thermometry) that are in agreement with the metamorphic conditions previously determined for the studied rocks. In quartzites from the medium-grade domain (~530°C), inherited detrital rutile grains are detected. They are identified by their distinct chemical composition (high Zr and Nb contents) and textures (single grains surrounded by fine grained ilmenites). Preliminary calculation, based on grain size distribution of rutile in medium-grade metapelites and quartzites that occur in the studied area, show that rutiles derived from quartzites can be anticipated to dominate the detrital rutile population, even if quartzites are a minor component of the exposure.     

Iron and Sulfur Chemistry in a Stratified Lake: Evidence for Iron-Rich Sulfide Complexes

A four month study of a man-made lake used for hydroelectric power generation in northeastern Pennsylvania USA was conducted to investigate seasonal anoxia and the effects of sulfide species being transported downstream of the power generation equipment. Water column analyses show that the system is iron-rich compared to sulfide. Total Fe(II) concentrations in the hypolimnion are typically at least twice the total sulfide levels. In situ voltammetric analyses show that free Fe(II) as [Fe(H₂O)₆]²⁺ or free H₂S as H₂S/HS^- are either not present or at trace levels and that iron-rich sulfide complexes are present. From the in situ data and total Fe(II) and H₂S measurements, we infer that these iron-rich sulfide complexes may have stoichiometries such as Fe₂SH³⁺ (or polymeric forms of this and other stoichiometries). These iron-rich sulfide complexes appear related to dissolution of the iron-rich FeS mineral, mackinawite, because IAP calculations on data from discrete bottle samples obtained from bottom waters are similar to the pK_sp of mackinawite. Soluble iron-sulfide species are stable in the absence of O₂ (both in lake waters and the pipeline) and transported several miles during power generation. However, iron-sulfide complexes can react with O₂ to oxidize sulfide and can also dissociate releasing volatile H₂S when the waters containing them are exposed to the atmosphere downstream of the powerplant. Sediment analyses show that the lake is rich in oxidized iron solids (both crystalline and amorphous). Fe concentrations in FeS solids are low (<5 μmole/gr_{dry wt}) and the pyrite concentration ranges from about equal to the solid FeS to 30 times the solid FeS concentration. The degree of pyritization is below 0.12 indicating that pyrite formation is limited by free sulfide, which can react with the iron-rich sulfide complexes.     

On the Dynamics of the Jovian Ionosphere and Thermosphere: III. The Modelling of Auroral Conductivity

Recent work has been concerned with calculating the three-dimensional ion concentrations and Pedersen and Hall conductivities within the auroral region of Jupiter for varying conditions of incident electron precipitation. Using the jovian ionospheric model, we present results that show the auroral ionospheric response to changing the incoming flux of precipitating electrons (for constant initial energy) and also the response to changing the initial energy (for both constant flux and constant energy flux). The results show that, for expected energy fluxes of precipitating particles, the average auroral integrated Pedersen conductivity attains values in excess of 1 mho. In addition, it is shown that electrons with an initial energy of around 60 keV are particularly effective at generating auroral conductivity: Particles of this energy penetrate most effectively to the layer of the jovian ionosphere at which the auroral conductivity is at a maximum.     

Characterization of permineralized kerogen from an Eocene fossil fern

The processes of organic maturation that occur during the permineralization of fossils and the detailed chemistry of the resulting products are incompletely understood. Primary among such processes is the geochemical alteration of biological matter to produce kerogen, such as that which comprises the cell walls of the fossils studied here: essentially unmetamorphosed, Eocene plant axes (specimens of the fossil fern Dennstaedtiopsis aerenchymata cellularly permineralized in cherts of the Clarno Formation of Oregon and the Allenby Formation of British Columbia). The composition and molecular structure of the kerogen that comprises the cell walls of such axes were analyzed using ultraviolet Raman spectroscopy (UV–Raman), solid state ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (¹³C NMR) and pyrolysis–gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (py–GC–MS).Cellularly well-preserved fern axes from both geologic units exhibit similar overall molecular structure, being composed primarily of networks of aromatic rings and polyene chains that, unlike more mature kerogens, lack large polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) constituents. The cell walls of the Allenby Formation specimens are, however, less altered than those of the Clarno chert, exhibiting more prevalent oxygen-containing and alkyl functional groups and comprising a greater fraction of rock mass.The study represents the first demonstration of the effectiveness (and limitations) of the combined use of UV–Raman, ¹³C NMR and py–GC–MS for the analysis of the kerogenous cell walls of chert-permineralized vascular plants.