Seasonal predictions based on two dynamical models

Abstract

Two dynamical models are used to perform a series of seasonal predictions. One model, referred to as GCM2, was designed as a general circulation model for climate studies, while the second one, SEF, was designed for numerical weather prediction. The seasonal predictions cover the 26‐year period 1969–1994. For each of the four seasons, ensembles of six forecasts are produced with each model, the six runs starting from initial conditions six hours apart. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly for the month prior to the start of the forecast is persisted through the three‐month prediction period, and added to a monthly‐varying climatological SST field.

The ensemble‐mean predictions for each of the models are verified independently, and the two ensembles are blended together in two different ways: as a simple average of the two models, denoted GCMSEF, and with weights statistically determined to minimize the mean‐square error (the Best Linear Unbiased Estimate (BLUE) method).

The GCMSEF winter and spring predictions show a Pacific/North American (PNA) response to a warm tropical SST anomaly. The temporal anomaly correlation between the zero‐lead GCMSEF mean‐seasonal predictions and observations of the 500‐hPa height field (Z₅₀₀) shows statistically significant forecast skill over parts of the PNA area for all seasons, but there is a notable seasonal variability in the distribution of the skill. The GCMSEF predictions are more skilful than those of either model in winter, and about as skilful as the better of the two models in the other seasons.

The zero‐lead surface air temperature GCMSEF forecasts over Canada are found to be skilful (a) over the west coast in all seasons except fall, (b) over most of Canada in summer, and (c) over Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec in the fall. In winter the skill of the BLUE forecasts is substantially better than that of the GCMSEF predictions, while for the other seasons the difference in skill is not statistically significant.

When the Z₅₀₀ forecasts are averaged over months two and three of the seasons (one‐month lead predictions), they show skill in winter over the north‐eastern Pacific, western Canada and eastern North America, a skill that comes from those years with strong SST anomalies of the El Niño/La Niña type. For the other seasons, predictions averaged over months two and three show little skill in Z₅₀₀ in the mid‐latitudes. In the tropics, predictive skill is found in Z₅₀₀ in all seasons when a strong SST anomaly of the El Niño/La Niña type is observed. In the absence of SST anomalies of this type, tropical forecast skill is still found over much of the tropics in months two and three of the northern hemisphere spring and summer, but not in winter and fall.     

Airborne imagery of a disintegrating Sargassum drift line

Airborne hyperspectral and thermal infrared imagery collected over the Florida Current provide a view of the disintegration of a Sargassum drift line in 5 m s⁻¹ winds. The drift line consists mostly of rafts 20-80 m² in size, though aggregations larger than 1000 m² also occur. Rafts tend to be elongated, curved in the upwind direction, and 0.1-0.5 °C warmer than the surrounding ocean surface. Long weed ‘trails’ extending upwind from the rafts are evidence of plants dropping out and being left behind more rapidly drifting rafts. The raft line may be a remnant of an earlier Sargassum frontal band, which is detectible as an upwind thermal front and areas of submerged weed. Issues are identified that require future field measurements.     

Comparative urbanization in Ghana and Kenya in time and space

There are few inter-African country urban analyses because of the continent’s enormous size and socioeconomic diversity, language barriers, and wide variations in national and regional urban research capacity. Nevertheless, comparative urban studies are critical in understanding contemporary African urbanization. In this comparative spatial and temporal analysis of Ghana and Kenya’s urbanization, we find that both countries are urbanizing rapidly and are faced with many common urban problems. Moreover, Ghana is more urbanized than Kenya and has a larger indigenous urban imprint and a more widely dispersed urban pattern. Besides their physiographic and population conditions, we trace these countries’ convergent and divergent urban trends to their shared but unique experiences of colonialism, nationalism and globalization.     

Principal axes of m-DOF structures PartⅠ:Static loading

This paper is the first in a two-part series that discusses the principal axes of M-DOF structures subjected to static and dynamic loads. The primary purpose of this series is to understand the magnitude of the dynamic response of structures to enable better design of structures and control modification devices/systems. Under idealized design conditions, the structural responses are obtained by using single direction input ground motions in the direction of the intended control devices/systems,and by assuming that the responses of the structure is decoupleable in three mutually perpendicular directions. This standard practice has been applied to both new and retrofitted structures using various seismic protective systems. Very limited information is available on the effects of neglecting the impact of directional couplings (cross effects - of which torsion is a component) of the dynamic response of structures. In order to quantify such effects, it is necessary to examine the principal axes of structures under both static and dynamic loading.This first paper deals with quantitative definitions of principal axes and "cross effects" of three-dimensional structures under static load by using linear algebra. It shows theoretically that, for three-dimensional structures, such principal axes rarely exist. Under static loading conditions, the cross effect is typically small and negligible from the viewpoint of engineering applications. However, it provides the theoretical base for subsequent quantification of the response couplings under dynamic loads, which is reported in part Ⅱ of this series.     

In vitro alternatives to whole animal testing. Comparative cytotoxicity studies of divalent metals in established cell lines derived from tropical and temperate water fish species in a neutral red assay

A simple vital dye (neutral red) uptake method for investigation of the acute toxicity of seven divalent metal cations to cell lines derived from the turbot (TF) and bluegill (BF-2) was evaluated. The method was extremely reproducible between replicate experiments on a week to week basis as well as being reproducible between different laboratories. Whilst there were some species-dependent differences in the relative toxicities of the metals there were good correlations between toxicity and the chemical softness (Σp) of the metal ions and also between in vivo and in vitro toxicities. These studies demonstrate that this simple and relatively inexpensive technique carried out in 96-well microplates may be extremely useful for evaluation of structure-toxicity relationships between related groups of compounds.     

Yielding oscillator subjected to simple pulse waveforms: numerical analysis & closed‐form solutions

Numerical and analytical solutions are presented for the elastic and inelastic response of single‐degree‐of‐freedom yielding oscillators to idealized ground acceleration pulses. These motions are typical of near‐fault earthquake recordings generated by forward rupture directivity and may inflict damage in the absence of substantial structural strength and ductility capacity. Four basic pulse waveforms are examined: (1) triangular; (2) sinusoidal; (3) exponential; and (4) rectangular. In the first part of the article, a numerical study is presented of the effect of oscillator period, strength, damping, post‐yielding stiffness and number of excitation cycles, on inelastic response. Results are presented in the form of dimensionless graphs and regression formulas that elucidate the salient features of the problem. It is shown that conventional R–µ relations may significantly underestimate ductility demand imposed by near‐fault motions. The second part of the article concentrates on elastic‐perfectly plastic oscillators. Closed‐form solutions are derived for post‐yielding response and associated ductility demand. It is shown that all three ground motion histories (i.e. acceleration, velocity, and displacement) control oscillator response—contrary to the widespread view that ground velocity alone is of leading importance. The derived solutions provide insight on the physics of inelastic response, which is often obscured by the complexity of numerical algorithms and actual earthquake motions. The model is evaluated against numerical results from near‐field recordings. A case study is presented. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variability of water exchanges through the Strait of Hormuz

Ocean Dynamics - The variability of the water mass exchange between the Arabian Gulf and the Indian Ocean is investigated using a high-resolution (1/36°) ocean model. We focus on the period...     

Detrital zircon reference for the North China block

U–Pb analyses of 250 single detrital zircons from Upper Proterozoic to Ordovician strata collected from the Zhuozi Shan in north-central China provide a detrital zircon reference for the North China block, a major crustal entity in the Asian tectonic collage. The results, which range in age from 1.72 to 2.97 Ga, shed new light on the age of the crystalline basement in North China, much of which is covered by younger sedimentary units. In addition, this detrital zircon reference can be used to help determine the provenance of clastic sedimentary units and for assessing validity of paleogeographic and regional tectonic models that include the complex history of Asian continental amalgamation, terrane accretion, and subsequent translation that is ongoing today.     

The warming of the industrialized middle latitudes 1985–2050: Causes and consequences

The dominant influence on global climate for the indefinite future is expected to be a warming in the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The speed of the warming is uncertain. The warming in winter may exceed 1.0 degree per decade. The warming in summer is expected to be less. The cause is the accumulation of infra-red absorptive gases, especially CO₂ and CH₄, in the atmosphere. The sources are the combustion of fossil fuels, the destruction of forests and their soils, and, possibly, the warming itself, which can be expected to stimulate decay of organic matter in soils. The warming in these latitudes is expected to be accompanied by increased precipitation as climatic zones migrate generally poleward. A 1 °C change in mean temperature is equivalent to a change in latitude of 100–150 km. The changes expected are rapid enough to exceed the capacity of forests to migrate or otherwise adapt. Forest trees will die at their warmer and drier limits of distribution more rapidly than forests can be regenerated in regions where climates become favorable. The destruction of forests will add further to the releases of C to the atmosphere. There is no equivalent countervailing storage that has been identified. The result suggests that a significant enhancement of the warming beyond current predictions is to be expected. An open-ended, accelerating warming of the Earth at rates that bring rapid changes in climatic zones, drive forests to impoverishment, and raise sea level rapidly is beyond the limits of simple adjustments of the human enterprise. Steps to stabilize the atmospheric composition seem inevitable. Because the total emissions of C to the atmosphere are not known, the current rate of transfer from the atmosphere to the oceans is uncertain. But whatever the current total release to the atmosphere, the annual atmospheric increase is about 3.0 G-tons of C as CO₂. At least three possibilities exist for reducing or eliminating the imbalance and moving toward long-term stability:

1. a reduction in the use of fossil fuels globally, now estimated as the source of about 5.6 G-tons of C annually;
2. a reduction or cessation of deforestation, now estimated as releasing 1–3 G-tons annually;
3. a vigorous program of reforestation that would remove from the atmosphere into storage in plants and soils about 1 G-ton of C annually for each 2 × 10⁶ km² tract reforested.

Further adjustments in emissions will be appropriate as experience accumulates. Such steps are appropriate now and possible. They will bring widespread ancillary benefits to the human enterprise.     

Total mercury content in some marine fish from the Indian Ocean

Total mercury was estimated in liver, gonads and muscle of some of the marine fishes from the Indian Ocean. The highest mercury concentration was observed in the muscle of sharks while the total mercury concentration was practically non-detectable in the liver and gonads. The range of all the values was 0.09–0.21 ppm (wet weight basis) and is quite low to reflect any possible mercury contamination.