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101.
一次春季强寒潮的降水相态变化分析   总被引:16,自引:2,他引:16  
应用NCEP 1°×1°资料、常规观测资料、自动站资料、多普勒天气雷达资料,对2007年3月河北省一次早春强寒潮天气背景下的降水多相态转换的成因与雨雪转换的预报进行了分析.结果表明:850hPa及以下蒙古高压和江淮气旋共同作用产生的偏东风导致低层大气温度持续下降,降水性质从雨转为雪.随着江淮气旋入海,高低空风向发生突变,从东北风转为西北风,加上太行山地形作用,使太行山东麓部分地区低层大气出现小幅升温,0℃层高度抬升,致使从雪转为雨.多普勒天气雷达回波图上,0℃层亮带高度的迅速下降,可作为从液态降水向固态降水转换的判据之一.天气学分析表明,当0℃层高度低于950hPa、地面气温在0℃上下、1000hPa温度低于2℃、925hPa温度低于-2℃时,降水性质将从雨向雨夹雪或雪转变.  相似文献   
102.
Total mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) were analyzed in near surface sediments (0-2 cm) and biota (zooplankton, macro-invertebrates, finfish) collected from Narragansett Bay (Rhode Island/Massachusetts, USA) and adjacent embayments and tidal rivers. Spatial patterns in sediment contamination were governed by the high affinity of Hg for total organic carbon (TOC). Sediment MeHg and percent MeHg were also inversely related to summer bottom water dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, presumably due to the increased activity of methylating bacteria. For biota, Hg accumulation was influenced by inter-specific habitat preferences and trophic structure, and sediments with high TOC and percent silt-clay composition limited mercury bioavailability. Moreover, hypoxic bottom water limited Hg bioaccumulation, which is possibly mediated by a reduction in biotic foraging, and thus, dietary uptake of mercury. Finally, most biota demonstrated a significant positive relationship between tissue and TOC-normalized sediment Hg, but relationships were much weaker or absent for sediment MeHg. These results have important implications for the utility of estuarine biota as subjects for mercury monitoring programs.  相似文献   
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104.
Perennial ice covers on many Antarctic lakes have resulted in high lake inorganic carbon contents. The objective of this paper was to evaluate and compare the brine and CO2 chemistries of Lake Vida (Victoria Valley) and West Lake Bonney (Taylor Valley), two lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys (East Antarctica), and their potential consequences during global warming. An existing geochemical model (FREZCHEM-15) was used to convert measured molarity into molality needed for the FREZCHEM model, and this model added a new algorithm that converts measured DIC into carbonate alkalinity needed for the FREZCHEM model. While quite extensive geochemical information exists for ice-covered Taylor Valley lakes, such as West Lake Bonney, only limited information exists for the recently sampled brine of >25 m ice-thick Lake Vida. Lake Vida brine had a model-calculated pCO2 = 0.60 bars at the field pH (6.20); West Lake Bonney had a model-calculated pCO2 = 5.23 bars at the field pH (5.46). Despite the high degree of atmospheric CO2 supersaturation in West Lake Bonney, it remains significantly undersaturated with the gas hydrate, CO2·6H2O, unless these gas hydrates are deep in the sediment layer or are metastable having formed under colder temperatures or greater pressures. Because of lower temperatures, Lake Vida could start forming CO2·6H2O at lower pCO2 values than West Lake Bonney; but both lakes are significantly undersaturated with the gas hydrate, CO2·6H2O. For both lakes, simulation of global warming from current subzero temperatures (?13.4 °C in Lake Vida and ?4.7 °C in West Lake Bonney) to 10 °C has shown that a major loss of solution-phase carbon as CO2 gases and carbonate minerals occurred when the temperatures rose above 0 °C and perennial ice covers would disappear. How important these Antarctic CO2 sources will be for future global warming remains to be seen. But a recent paper has shown that methane increased in atmospheric concentration due to deglaciation about 10,000 years ago. So, CO2 release from ice lakes might contribute to atmospheric gases in the future.  相似文献   
105.
Measurements of water pressure beneath Trapridge Glacier, Yukon Territory, Canada show that the basal water system is highly heterogeneous. Three types of behaviour were recorded: pressure records which are strongly correlated, records which are strongly anticorrelated, and records which alternate between strong correlation and strong anticorrelation. We take the pressure in bore-holes that are connected to the evacuation route for basal water as the forcing, and the other pressures as the response to this forcing. Previous work (Murray and Clarke 1995) has shown that these relationships can be modelled using low-order nonlinear differential equations optimized by inversion. However, despite optimizing the model parameters we cannot be sure that the final model forms are themselves optimal. Computational intelligence techniques provide alternative methods for fitting models and are robust to missing or noisy data, applicable to non-smooth models, and attempt to derive optimal model forms as well as optimal model parameters. Four computational intelligence techniques have been used and the results compared with the more conventional mathematical model. These methods were genetic programming, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic and self-organizing maps. We compare each technique and offer an evaluation of their suitability for modelling the pressure data. The evaluation criteria are threefold: (1) goodness of fit and an ability to predict subsequent data under different surface weather conditions; (2) interpretability, and the extent and significance of any new insights offered into the physics of the glacier; (3) computation time. The results suggest that the suitability of the computational intelligence techniques to model these data increases with the complexity of the system to be modelled.  相似文献   
106.
Assessments of water resources by using macro‐scale models tend to be conducted at the continental or large catchment scale. However, security of freshwater supplies is a local issue and thus necessitates study at such a scale. This research aims to evaluate the suitability of the Land Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX‐DGVM) for simulating runoff for small catchments in the UK. Simulated annual and monthly runoff is compared against the National River Flow Archive streamflow observations from 12 catchments of varying size (500–10 000 km2) and climate regimes. Results show that LPX reproduces observed inter‐annual and intra‐annual runoff variability successfully in terms of both flow timings and magnitudes. Inter‐annual variability in flow timings is simulated particularly well (as indicated by Willmott's index of agreement values of ≥0.7 for the majority of catchments), whereas runoff magnitudes are generally slightly overestimated. In the densely populated Thames catchment, these overestimations are partly accounted for by water consumption. Seasonal variability in runoff is also modelled well, as shown by Willmott's index of agreement values of ≥0.9 for all but one catchment. Absence of river routing and storage from the model, in addition to precipitation uncertainties, is also suggested as contributing to simulated runoff discrepancies. Overall, the results show that the LPX‐DGVM can successfully simulate runoff processes for small catchments in the UK. This study offers promising insights into the use of global‐scale models and datasets for local‐scale studies of water resources, with the eventual aim of providing local‐scale projections of future water distributions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
107.
The applicability of two different approaches in the luminescence dating of old (>70 ka) Chinese loess is investigated. Both SAR-OSL ages obtained on 63–90 μm quartz grains and SAR-IRSL ages obtained on 4–11 μm polymineral grains, for samples collected from two sites in the Chinese Loess Plateau (Luochuan and Dongchuan) are presented. The characteristics of the luminescence signals stimulated by blue and infrared light are investigated in terms of dose response and dose recovery, and as a function of age. Additionally, anomalous fading measurements from the 410 nm IRSL emission in polymineral fine-grains are reported. An average value of g2days amounting to 3% per decade was measured and seems to be independent of site location and age. For the samples from Luochuan, independent age control (pedostratigraphy and palaeomagnetism) is available. At both sites, the SAR-OSL ages are always lower than the SAR-IRSL ages after they have been corrected for anomalous fading. It seems that the quartz-based SAR-OSL ages are accurate for the younger ages, but that they underestimate the true age of deposition for loess that was deposited about 60–70 ka ago. The fading-corrected SAR-IRSL ages are in better agreement with the pedostratigraphic age control (75 and 130 ka) and allow dating beyond the quartz OSL range. Based on our results, we suggest that conventional SAR-OSL and SAR-IRSL protocols at these sites should be restricted to samples of ages not exceeding 40–50  and 100–120 ka, respectively.  相似文献   
108.
There has been considerable recent concern over the amount of vegetation clearance in the wet tropics of northern Australia. This paper reports on the results of a case study undertaken in the lower Herbert River catchment in north-east Queensland, which utilised remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to assess both spatial and temporal changes in land cover since European settlement in the mid-nineteenth century. We demonstrate that since European settlement there has been a substantial reduction in the area of Melaleuca, rainforest, and eucalyptus-dominated land-cover patterns. We also provide a range of quantitative measures to show that the landscape diversity, integrity and quality of these ecosystems have also declined between the 1860s and 1996. We conclude that reform is required at policy, planning and enterprise levels if the ecological, economic and social values of these systems are to be maintained in the future.  相似文献   
109.
110.
This research aims to provide insight regarding Wal-Mart's retail development strategy in its expansion across the continental United States. The study examines store location patterns and relationships between Wal-Mart's store and distribution center locations and markets. The study shows that, although radial expansion is broadly characteristic of the dense store patterns that have been well established for Wal-Mart at the national level, expansion patterns at the regional level are consistent with a selective process based on factors other than store density. These results provide a new perspective on Wal-Mart's expansion, providing insights of value to retail practitioners and local government.  相似文献   
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