Less is more: Spectres of scarcity and the politics of resource access in the upstream oil sector

Our objective in this paper is to understand the significance of the peak oil claim for the large, publicly-traded oil companies to whom the tasks of finding oil, extracting it and delivering it to market have been allocated. On the face of it, peak oil would appear to offer the ultimate solution to a problem that has plagued the international oil industry for the last one hundred years: how to organise scarcity in the face of prodigious abundance. We examine how publicly-traded oil firms (‘Big Oil’) are engaging with the discourse and science of peak oil, and find that peak oil positions firms like Exxon, BP and Shell in a number of different and quite complex ways: as a beneficiary (of a higher price regime), but also as a victim (of shrinking reserves) and a suspect (for under-investing in exploration or exploiting reserves too rapidly). We find a surprising lack of consensus among Big Oil about the significance of peak oil’s core claim for an imminent, permanent decline in the production of conventional grades of crude, and we conclude that peak oil is not regarded as strategic priority for oil producers (the contrast here with climate change is instructive). To understand why this is the case we turn from the physical science-based account of peak oil to political economy, and examine the contradictory character of Big Oil’s current position. We show how the strong financial returns to Big Oil in the last few years mask a precarious structural position when it comes to reserves access and reserves replacement. Critically the origins of this squeeze originate primarily above-ground: in the ownership of reserves, the politics of resource access and the changing structure of the international oil industry, and not below-ground in geological limits. Accordingly, we reject the simple assumption that increasing geological scarcity explains/justifies high returns, and argue that the relative marginalisation of peak oil within Big Oil’s strategic concerns reflects the way it misdiagnoses the cause of oil companies’ woes when it comes to finding and replacing reserves. We conclude that peak oil’s claim of physically-induced scarcity obfuscates rather than illuminates when it comes to understanding the opportunities for - and constraints on - accumulation in the upstream oil sector.     

The Shaft Capacity of Displacement Piles in Clay: A State of the Art Review

The rapid expansion of the offshore wind sector, coupled with increasing demand for high rise structures, has placed renewed demand on the driven piling market. In light of this industry growth, this paper reviews the evolution of design approaches for calculating the shaft capacity of displacement piles installed in cohesive soils. The transition from traditional total stress design towards effective stress methods is described. Complex stress–strain changes occur during pile installation, equalisation and load testing and as a consequence, the selection of parameters for use in conventional earth-pressure type effective stress approaches is not straight-forward. These problems have led to the development of empirical correlations between shaft resistance and in situ tests, such as the cone penetration tests. However, many of these approaches are limited because they were developed for specific geological conditions. Significant insight into pile behaviour has been obtained from recent model pile tests, which included reliable measurements of radial effective stresses. These tests have allowed factors such as friction fatigue and interface friction to be included explicitly in design methods. Whilst analytical methods have been developed to investigate pile response, these techniques cannot yet fully describe the complete stress–strain history experienced by driven piles. The use of analytical methods in examining features of pile behaviour, such as the development of pore pressure during installation and the effects of pile end geometry on pile capacity, is discussed.     

Geochemical characterization of arsenic-affected alluvial aquifers of the Bengal Delta (West Bengal and Bangladesh) and Chianan Plains (SW Taiwan): Implications for human health

Major ion and trace element analyses were performed on groundwater samples collected from the Bengal Delta (Chakdaha municipality, West Bengal and Manikgonj town, Bangladesh) and Chianan Plains (SW Taiwan) to compare geochemical characteristics. Results showed that concentrations of Na, K, Mg, Cl and SO₄ were generally higher in Chianan Plain (CNP) groundwaters, while high Ca was observed in Bengal Delta Plain (BDP) groundwater. Measured As concentrations in groundwaters of BDP and CNP showed large variations, with mean As concentrations of 221 μg/L (range: 1.1-476 μg/L) in Chakdaha, 60 μg/L (range: 0.30-202 μg/L) in Manikgonj, and 208 μg/L (range: 1.3-575 μg/L) in CNP groundwater. The Fe-reduction mechanism was found to be the dominant geochemical process in releasing As from sediment to groundwater in Chakdaha, West Bengal, however the Mn-reduction process was dominant in groundwaters of Manikgonj, Bangladesh. In Chianan Plain groundwater, a combination of geochemical processes (e.g., bacterial Fe-reduction, mineral precipitation and dissolution reactions) controlled release of As. Fluorescence spectral patterns of the groundwater showed low relative fluorescence intensity (RFI) of dissolved humic substances in BDP groundwater (mean: 63 and 72 QSU, Chakdaha and Manikgonj, respectively), while high RFI was observed in CNP groundwater (mean: 393 QSU). The FT-IR spectra of the extracted humic acid fractions from sediments of Chianan Plain showed a stronger aliphatic band at 2850-3000 cm⁻¹ and a higher resolved fingerprint area (from 1700 to 900 cm⁻¹) compared with BDP sediments. The geochemical differences between the study areas may play a crucial role in the clinical manifestation of Blackfoot disease observed only in Chianan Plain, SW Taiwan.     

Use of standard vocabulary services in validation of water resources data described in XML

The machine readable encoding language XML is used in water informatics to describe resources and observational data, such as the Water Data Transfer Format (WDTF). WDTF is part of an Australian initiative, established by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in collaboration with CSIRO, to collate water resources data from multiple data providers into a national water information system. A common way of validating XML data is by defining a schema using XML Schema Definition language (XSD) and performing validation using standard XSD tools. However, XSD validation lacks the ability to perform content validation to assert context, domain and organizational rules such as soft-typing, co-constraints, and code-list or vocabulary checking, which is required in the validation of WDTF data. In this paper, we describe a validation service for validating water resources data encoded in WDTF, which combines structural and content validation. We also describe the use of a vocabulary service with the WDTF validation service to perform code-list and vocabulary checking.     

The new intermediate polar RX J1238 − 38: a system below the period gap?

We present optical observations of the recently discovered ROSAT source RX J1238 − 38, which is a new member of the intermediate polar class of asynchronous magnetic cataclysmic variables (CVs). Optical photometry reveals two coherent periodicities at 1860 and 2147 s respectively, with similar amplitudes of ∼ 8 per cent. Infrared ( J -band) intensity variations are detected only at the 1860-s period, at an amplitude of ∼ 15 per cent. The initial hypothesis, that these two periods were the spin and synodic (i.e., beat) period respectively, appears not to be supported by the spectroscopic data. The emission lines vary on the longer photometric period, and radial velocity variations are detected at this period and at a longer period of ∼ 5300 s, which we identify as the spin and orbital periods respectively. The most likely explanation for the 1860-s period is that it is the first harmonic of the ω − Ω sideband, leading to an improved determination of the orbital period as 5077 s (= 84 min). If this interpretation is correct, RX J1238 − 38 joins EX Hya as the only other intermediate polar below the 2–3 h period gap, and with an orbital period close to the minimum for CVs with non-degenerate secondaries. The spin-modulated emission-line radial velocities and widths appear to be anticorrelated, with maximum width occurring at maximum blueshift. Such an anticorrelation is expected for aspect changes of accretion curtains. Polarimetric observations of RX J1238 − 38 were inconclusive, although we can put a limit of 0.4 per cent on any variability on the circular polarization, and certainly there is no indication of variations at the photometric or spectroscopic periods.     

The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the nature of the relative bias between galaxies of different spectral type

We present an analysis of the relative bias between early- and late-type galaxies in the Two-degree Field Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS) – as defined by the η parameter of Madgwick et al., which quantifies the spectral type of galaxies in the survey. We calculate counts in cells for flux-limited samples of early- and late-type galaxies, using approximately cubical cells with sides ranging from 7 to  42 h ⁻¹ Mpc  . We measure the variance of the counts in cells using the method of Efstathiou et al., which we find requires a correction for a finite volume effect equivalent to the integral constraint bias of the autocorrelation function. Using a maximum-likelihood technique we fit lognormal models to the one-point density distribution, and develop methods of dealing with biases in the recovered variances resulting from this technique. We then examine the joint density distribution function,   f (δ_E, δ_L)  , and directly fit deterministic bias models to the joint counts in cells. We measure a linear relative bias of ≈1.3, which does not vary significantly with ℓ. A deterministic linear bias model is, however, a poor approximation to the data, especially on small scales  (ℓ≤ 28  h ⁻¹ Mpc)  where deterministic linear bias is excluded at high significance. A power-law bias model with index   b ₁≈ 0.75  is a significantly better fit to the data on all scales, although linear bias becomes consistent with the data for  ℓ≳ 40  h ⁻¹ Mpc  .     

Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales

Cold related mortality among people aged over 50 in England and Wales has decreased at a rate of 85 deaths per million population per year over the period 1976–2005. This trend is two orders of magnitude higher than the increase in heat-related mortality observed after 1976. Long term changes in temperature-related mortality may be linked to human activity, natural climatic forcings, or to adaptation of the population to a wider range of temperatures. Here we employ optimal detection, a formal statistical methodology, to carry out an end to end attribution analysis. We find that adaptation is a major influence on changing mortality rates. We also find that adaptation has prevented a significant increase in heat-related mortality and considerably enhanced a significant decrease in cold-related mortality. Our analysis suggests that in the absence of adaptation, the human influence on climate would have been the main contributor to increases in heat-related mortality and decreases in cold-related mortality.     

Hydroxyl and Peroxy Radical Chemistry in a Rural Area of Central Pennsylvania: Observations and Model Comparisons

Atmospheric hydroxyl (OH), hydroperoxy (HO₂), total peroxy (HO₂ and organic peroxy radicals, RO₂) mixing ratios and OH reactivity (first order OH loss rate) were measured at a rural site in central Pennsylvania during May and June 2002. OH and HO₂ mixing ratios were measured with laser induced fluorescence (LIF); HO₂ + RO₂ mixing ratios were measured with chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS). The daytime maximum mixing ratios were up to 0.6 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) for OH, 30 pptv for HO₂, and 45 pptv for HO₂ + RO₂. A parameterized RACM (Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism) box model was used to predict steady state OH, HO₂ and HO₂ + RO₂ concentrations by constraining the model to the measured OH reactivity and previously measured volatile organic compound (VOC) distributions. The averaged model calculations are generally in good agreement with the observations. For OH, the model matched the observations for day and night, with an average observed-to-modeled ratio of 0.80. In previous studies such as PROPHET98, nighttime NO was near 0 pptv and observed nighttime OH was significantly larger than modeled OH. In this study, nighttime observed and modeled OH agree to within measurement and model uncertainties because the main source of the nighttime OH was the reaction HO₂ + NO → OH + NO₂, with the NO being continually emitted from the surrounding fertilized corn field. The observed-to-modeled ratio for HO₂ is 1.0 on average, although daytime HO₂ is underpredicted by a factor of 1.2 and nighttime HO₂ is over-predicted by a factor of ∼2. The average measured and modeled HO₂ + RO₂ agree well during daytime, but the modeled value is about twice the measured value during nighttime. While measured HO₂ + RO₂ values agree with modeled values for NO mixing ratios less than a few parts per billion by volume (ppbv), it increases substantially above the expected value for NO greater than a few ppbv. This observation of the higher-than-expected HO₂ + RO₂ with the CIMS technique confirms the observed increase of HO₂ above expected values at higher NO mixing ratios in HO₂ measurements with the LIF technique. The maximum instantaneous O₃ production rate calculated from HO₂ and RO₂ reactions with NO was as high as 10–15 ppb h⁻¹ at midday; the total daily O₃ production varied from 13 to 113 ppbv d⁻¹ and was 48 ppbv d⁻¹ on average during this campaign.