Implementation of an automatic calibration procedure for HYDROTEL based on prior OAT sensitivity and complementary identifiability analysis

Efficiency of hydrological models mostly depends on the quality of the calibration performed prior to use. In this paper, an automatic calibration framework for the distributed hydrological model HYDROTEL is proposed. The calibration procedure was performed for three watersheds characterized with different hydroclimatological conditions: the Sassandra located in Ivory Coast, Africa, and the Montmorency and Beaurivage watersheds located in Quebec (Canada). Results of one‐a‐time (OAT) sensitivity analysis showed that the order of the most sensitive parameters differs for each watershed. Thus, the sensitivity depends on the hydroclimatic and physiographic characteristics of the watersheds. Co‐linearity indices showed that all model parameters were identifiable, that is, none of the studied parameters could be explained by a combination of the other parameters. Following these findings, an automatic calibration was run. Results indicated there was good agreement between simulated and measured streamflows at the outlet of each watershed; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranging between 0.77 and 0.92 and R² ranging from 0.87 to 0.97. When comparing NSE and R² values obtained using a process‐oriented, multiple‐objective, manual calibration strategy, a slight increase in model efficiency was reached with the automatic calibration procedure (4.15% for NSE and 2.95% for R²) improving predictions of peak flows for the Montmorency and Beaurivage watersheds (temperate climate conditions) and flows beyond the rainfall season in the Sassandra watershed. The proposed automatic calibration procedure introduced in this paper may be applied to other distributed hydrological model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of hypoxia on benthic macrofauna and bioturbation in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence,Canada

The bottom water in the >300 m deep Lower St. Lawrence Estuary (LSLE) is persistently hypoxic in contrast to the normoxic bottom waters in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL). We photographed the seabed at 11 stations in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence (EGSL) during the summers 2006 and 2007 and analysed the images to identify bioturbation traces (lebensspuren) and benthic macrofauna. The objective was to identify the environmental variables that influence the density and diversity of benthic macrofauna and bioturbation traces, and the differences that exist among regions with high, medium and low oxygen levels in the bottom water. The bottom water oxygen concentration is the variable that best explains the densities of total-traces as well as surface-traces. However, the density of these traces was higher in hypoxic regions than in well-oxygenated regions. The higher density of traces in the hypoxic region of the LSLE is mainly due to the activities of the surface deposit feeder Ophiura sp., which occurs in large numbers in this region. Possible explanations explored are stress behaviour of the organisms in response to hypoxia and different benthic macrofauna community structures between the hypoxic regions of the LSLE and the normoxic regions of the GSL. In the former, surface deposit feeders and low-oxygen tolerant species dominate over suspension feeders and low-oxygen intolerant species.     

Spectral analysis as applied to a set of gyrocompass transit times

Spectral analysis by least squares as developed by Vaníček is applied to a series of transit times measurements obtained with a suspended gyrocompass (Wild) electronically equipped with three photocells and a printing chronograph. Instead of being the Fourier transform of the autocovariance function as in the usual spectral analysis of time series (Wiener theory), the spectral function used here is a function of an estimator of the variance factor obtained after a least squares fitting of a sinusoid to the data. That function is normalized to values between zero and one. For step-by-step spectral analysis by least squares each time a significant frequency appears in the spectrum it is removed by least squares fitting of the corresponding sinusoid including a damping coefficient, the residuals being again examined by spectral analysis by least squares. We find four significant frequencies: the well known principal period of about 7^min in the spinning case; a very strong component with a period nearly exactly half the principal period and an amplitude of about 70″, explained by taking into account the second-order term in the theory developed by Jeudy, and two remaining periods with much smaller amplitudes (2″.9 and 0″.9). It is shown that the shortest period (0^s.021), predicted by theory, exists in the measurements and cannot be neglected. The smallest component is considered to correspond to the wobble which can easily be observed in the perturbed motion.     

Climate Change Scenarios for the Hudson Bay Region: An Intermodel Comparison

General circulation models (GCMs) are unanimous in projecting warmer temperatures in an enhanced CO₂ atmosphere, with amplification of this warming in higher latitudes. The Hudson Bay region, which is located in the Arctic and subarctic regions of Canada, should therefore be strongly influenced by global warming. In this study, we compare the response of Hudson Bay to a transient warming scenario provided by six-coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Our analysis focuses on surface temperature, precipitation, sea-ice coverage, and permafrost distribution. The results show that warming is expected to peak in winter over the ocean, because of a northward retreat of the sea-ice cover. Also, a secondary warming peak is observed in summer over land in the Canadian and Australian-coupled GCMs, which is associated with both a reduction in soil moisture conditions and changes in permafrost distribution. In addition, a relationship is identified between the retreat of the sea-ice cover and an enhancement of precipitation over both land and oceanic surfaces. The response of the sea-ice cover and permafrost layer to global warming varies considerably among models and thus large differences are observed in the projected regional increase in temperature and precipitation. In view of the important feedbacks that a retreat of the sea-ice cover and the distribution of permafrost are likely to play in the doubled and tripled CO₂ climates of Hudson Bay, a good representation of these two parameters is necessary to provide realistic climate change scenarios. The use of higher resolution regional climate model is recommended to develop scenarios of climate change for the Hudson Bay region.