Factors controlling the morphological evolution of the Çanakkale Strait (Dardanelles, Turkey)

Seismic profiling, bathymetric and physical oceanographic data collected from the Çanakkale Strait revealed that the morphological evolution of the strait has been controlled by tectonic activity, and sediment erosion and deposition. Sediments in the strait have been sourced mostly by rivers draining the Biga Peninsula during lowstand periods. In highstand periods, by contrast, deposits in the strait were reworked by currents. The seafloor morphology of the Çanakkale Strait is also controlled by a sequence of factors ranging from tectonics to current erosion and deposition. Channel deposits overlying the basement are being eroded at the narrower, meandering central section of the strait (the Nara Passage) due to high current velocities. The eroded sediments are deposited in the relatively linear and wider, northern and southern sectors of the strait exposed to low current velocities. As a result, the high-energy areas are more deeply incised due to the erosion, whereas deposition elevates the seafloor in the areas exposed to lower current energy. Three strike-slip faults, which possibly relate to the activity of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, are responsible for the irregular shape of the strait and this, in turn, controls the current velocity along the strait. The high-energy conditions probably commenced with the latest invasion of Mediterranean waters some 12 ka b.p., and have continued as a two-layered current system to the present day.     

Faulting, mass-wasting and deposition in an active dextral shear zone, the Gulf of Saros and the NE Aegean Sea, NW Turkey

Structural, mass-wasting and sedimentation processes along an active dextral shear zone beneath the Gulf of Saros and the NE Aegean Sea were investigated on the basis of new high-resolution swath bathymetric data and multi-channel seismics. A long history of dextral shearing operating since the Pliocene culminated in the formation of a NE-SW-trending, ca. 800-m-deep basin (the so-called inner basin) in this region, which is bordered by a broad shelf along its northern and eastern sides and a narrow shelf at the southern side. The western extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (the Ganos Fault) cuts the eastern shelf along a narrow deformation zone, and ends sharply at the toe of the slope, where the strain is taken up by two NE-SW-oriented fault zones. These two fault zones cut the basin floor along its central axis and generate a new, Riedel-type pull-apart basin (the so-called inner depression). According to the bathymetric and seismic data, these basin boundary fault zones are very recent features. The northern boundary of the inner depression is a through-going fault comprising several NE-SW- and E-W-oriented, overlapping fault segments. The southern boundary fault zone, on the other hand, consists of spectacular en-echelon fault systems aligned in NE–SW and WNW–ESE directions. These en-echelon faults accommodate both dextral and vertical motions, thereby generating block rotations along their horizontal axis. As the basin margins retreat, the basin widens continuously by mass-wasting of the slopes of the inner basin. The mass-wasting, triggered by active tectonics, occurs by intense landsliding and channel erosion. The eroded material is transported into the deep basin, where it is deposited in a series of deep-sea fans and slumps. The high sedimentation rate is reflected in an over 1,500-m-thick basin fill which has accumulated in Pliocene–Quaternary times.     

Ecological indices tracking distinct impacts along disturbance-recovery gradients in a temperate NE Atlantic Estuary – Guidance on reference values

Results gathered from a monitoring programme on the Mondego Estuary (Western Coast of Portugal) were compliant with findings drawn from other studies, which pointed out that unstable environments, namely estuarine systems, constitute a great challenge for the use of environmental tools such as ecological indices. The Margalef Index, the Shannon–Wiener Index and AMBI were proposed to evaluate the ecological status of benthic communities in the scope of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) in Portugal and other European member states. In this system these indices were not equally effective in tracking changes in benthic communities that expressed obvious responses to anthropogenic disturbances (eutrophic situations and severe physical disturbance) and to subsequent impacts' cessation. Natural variability played an important role on the indices' response, with estuarine gradient and habitat heterogeneity affecting the ranges of values obtained, and with extreme climate events slowing down the ongoing recovery process. Nonetheless, both natural and anthropogenic variability during the study period could be satisfactorily detected if we accounted for the information provided by all three indices. Based on the whole range of variation observed (a) as a response to different kinds of impacts, and (b) along recovery gradients, as well as accounting for the natural driving forces acting upon estuarine benthic invertebrate communities, we propose a set of reference values for these three indices. This proposal aims at contributing to the implementation of classification tools within the scope of the European WFD.     

Late Quaternary evolution of the Çanakkale Strait region (Dardanelles, NW Turkey): implications of a major erosional event for the postglacial Mediterranean-Marmara Sea connection

Seismic and bathymetric data from the Çanakkale Strait and its extensions onto the shelves of the Marmara and Aegean seas indicate that the strait was formed mainly by an erosional event. Four seismic units are observed on seismic profiles. The lower two of these (units 4 and 3) constitute the basement of a regionally widespread erosional unconformity (ravinement), which developed during marine isotope stage 2 (MIS 2). The two upper units (units 2 and 1), which overlie the ravinement surface, form a higher-order sequence. Sequence stratigraphic analysis indicates that units 2 and 1 deposited as lowstand and highstand systems tracts respectively, since the end of MIS 2. The transgressive systems tract is represented by a major erosional event which occurred throughout the Çanakkale sill area when the Mediterranean-Marmara Sea connection and, hence, the Çanakkale Strait was formed. The existence of the erosive ?arköy Canyon along the shelf edge of the southern Marmara Sea demonstrates that the flow direction causing the erosion was from south to north, thus proving that it was produced by Mediterranean water flowing over the sill into the Marmara Sea basin.     

The Manila clam population in Arcachon Bay (SW France): Can it be kept sustainable?

The venerid clam Ruditapes philippinarum is the most prominent suspension-feeding bivalve inhabiting muddy intertidal seagrass beds in Arcachon Bay (SW France). It is exploited by fishermen, and Arcachon Bay ranks number one in France in terms of production and total biomass of this species. Previous studies revealed a decrease in the standing stock of R. philippinarum since 2003 and unbalanced length–frequency distributions with a lack of juveniles and of adults > 40 mm. Consequently, the population dynamics of this bivalve were studied at four intertidal sites and one oceanic site in Arcachon Bay. As clam size structure did not allow classical dynamics computations, field monitoring was coupled with field experiments (tagging–recapture) over two years. Monitoring of condition index and gonadal maturation stages highlighted a high variability in spawning number and intensity between sites. Recruitment events in the exploited area varied spatially but with uniformly low values. Von Bertalanffy Growth Function (VBGF) parameters (K, L_∞) were determined using Appeldoorn and ELEFAN methods. In the exploited sites in the inner lagoon, K was relatively high (mean = 0.72 yr^? 1) but L_∞ was low (mean = 41.1 mm) resulting in a moderate growth performance index (Φ′ = 2.99). Growth parameters were not correlated with immersion time and L_∞ was different between sites. Comparison of mortality coefficients (Z) between cage experiments and field monitoring suggested that fishing accounts for 65–75% of total adult mortality. Low recruitment, a low growth rate and a normal mortality rate led to low somatic production (4.1 and 8.7 g Shell-Free Dry Weight (SFDW) m^? 2 yr^? 1) and an annual P/B ratio from 0.44 to 0.92 yr^? 1. Under current conditions, the possibility of a sustainable population in Arcachon Bay will strongly depend on recruitment success and fishing management.     

Point process-based modeling of multiple debris flow landslides using INLA: an application to the 2009 Messina disaster

We develop a stochastic modeling approach based on spatial point processes of log-Gaussian Cox type for a collection of around 5000 landslide events provoked by a precipitation trigger in Sicily, Italy. Through the embedding into a hierarchical Bayesian estimation framework, we can use the integrated nested Laplace approximation methodology to make inference and obtain the posterior estimates of spatially distributed covariate and random effects. Several mapping units are useful to partition a given study area in landslide prediction studies. These units hierarchically subdivide the geographic space from the highest grid-based resolution to the stronger morphodynamic-oriented slope units. Here we integrate both mapping units into a single hierarchical model, by treating the landslide triggering locations as a random point pattern. This approach diverges fundamentally from the unanimously used presence–absence structure for areal units since we focus on modeling the expected landslide count jointly within the two mapping units. Predicting this landslide intensity provides more detailed and complete information as compared to the classically used susceptibility mapping approach based on relative probabilities. To illustrate the model’s versatility, we compute absolute probability maps of landslide occurrences and check their predictive power over space. While the landslide community typically produces spatial predictive models for landslides only in the sense that covariates are spatially distributed, no actual spatial dependence has been explicitly integrated so far. Our novel approach features a spatial latent effect defined at the slope unit level, allowing us to assess the spatial influence that remains unexplained by the covariates in the model. For rainfall-induced landslides in regions where the raingauge network is not sufficient to capture the spatial distribution of the triggering precipitation event, this latent effect provides valuable imaging support on the unobserved rainfall pattern.     

New evidence of sea‐level lowstands and paleoenvironment during MIS 6 and 4 in the Cantabrian coastal karst: the Cobiheru cave (North Iberia)

The geomorphological evolution of the Cobiheru Cave shows the influence of the non‐carbonate coastal mountain ranges on coastal karst evolution, as well as the temporal distribution of the cold‐adapted fauna sites in the Cantabrian Coast. Geomorphological observation and uranium/thorium (U/Th) dating lead to the construction of an evolution model. The model comprises two episodes of cave deposition occurring at c. 60–70 and 130–150 ka, linked to cold climate conditions, global sea‐level lowstands and the erosion of alluvial fans that covered the karst. Moreover, the comparison between the Cobiheru record and some raised beaches identified in previous studies sets the beginning of the sea‐level lowering in the Cantabrian Sea during the marine isotope stages (MIS) 5–4 transition. Two palaeoenvironments are inferred based on finding Equus ferus and Elona quimperiana. A wet deciduous forest would have developed on the emerged marine terrace of the Cobiheru Cave since at least the Middle Pleistocene, and an open landscape with scarce vegetation would have been present at c. 65 ka. The erosional event identified in the Cobiheru Cave helps to understand the temporal distribution of cold‐adapted mammals located in the Asturias region. The probable sites of cold‐adapted fauna developed in caves and alluvial fans would have disappeared after 65 ka. Therefore, palaeontological and palaeoclimate research based on cold‐adapted mammals suggests the occurrence of an hiatus in the palaeontological record prior to 50 ka. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic properties of lower ionosphere as earthquake precursor

Lower portion of the ionosphere known as the D-layer has properties of Gaussian random plane affecting very low frequency waves. This is manifested by stochastic properties of reflected VLF waves as their auto-correlation function (ACF) in time is the Bessel function of the first kind and zero order. In this paper, we show that the properties of this Bessel function are connected with the seismic activity in the area near the great circle path of VLF waves.     

SPM response to tide and river flow in the hyper-turbid Ems River

In this paper, we analyse the behaviour of fine sediments in the hyper-turbid Lower Ems River, with focus on the river’s upper reaches, a stretch of about 25 km up-estuary of Terborg. Our analysis is based on long records of suspended particulate matter (SPM) from optical backscatter (OBS) measurements close to the bed at seven stations along the river, records of salinity and water level measurements at these stations, acoustic measurements on the vertical mud structure just up-estuary of Terborg and oxygen profiles in the lower 3 m of the water column close to Leerort and Terborg. Further, we use cross-sectionally averaged velocities computed with a calibrated numerical model. Distinction is made between four timescales, i.e. the semi-diurnal tidal timescale, the spring–neap tidal timescale, a timescale around an isolated peak in river flow (i.e. about 3 weeks) and a seasonal timescale. The data suggest that a pool of fluid/soft mud is present in these upper reaches, from up-estuary of Papenburg to a bit down-estuary of Terborg. Between Terborg and Gandersum, SPM values drop rapidly but remain high at a few gram per litre. The pool of fluid/soft mud is entrained/mobilized at the onset of flood, yielding SPM values of many tens gram per litre. This suspension is transported up-estuary with the flood. Around high water slack, part of the suspension settles, being remixed during ebb, while migrating down-estuary, but likely not much further than Terborg. Around low water slack, a large fraction of the sediment settles, reforming the pool of fluid mud. The rapid entrainment from the fluid mud layer after low water slack is only possible when the peak flood velocity exceeds a critical value of around 1 m/s, i.e. when the stratified water column seems to become internally supercritical. If the peak flood velocity does not reach this critical value, f.i. during neap tide, fluid mud is not entrained up to the OBS sensors. Thus, it is not classical tidal asymmetry, but the peak flood velocity itself which governs the hyper-turbid state in the Lower Ems River. The crucial role of river flow and river floods is in reducing these peak flood velocities. During elongated periods of high river flow, in e.g. wintertime, SPM concentrations reduce, and the soft mud deposits consolidate and possibly become locally armoured as well by sand washed in from the river. We have no observations that sediments are washed out of the hyper-turbid zone. Down-estuary of Terborg, where SPM values do not reach hyper-turbid conditions, the SPM dynamics are governed by classical tidal asymmetry and estuarine circulation. Hence, nowhere in the river, sediments are flushed from the upper reaches of the river into the Ems-Dollard estuary during high river flow events. However, exchange of sediment between river and estuary should occur because of tide-induced dispersion.     

Uniform fragility spectra for the performance‐based seismic design of structures considering variabilities in structural properties

This paper presents a new methodology based on structural performance to determine uniform fragility design spectra, i.e., spectra with the same probability of exceedance of a performance level for a given seismic intensity. The design spectra calculated with this methodology provide directly the lateral strength, in terms of yield‐ pseudo‐accelerations, associated with the rate of exceedance of a specific ductility characterizing the performance level for which the structures will be designed. This procedure involves the assessment of the seismic hazard using a large enough number of seismic records of several magnitudes; these records are simulated with an improved empirical Green function method. The statistics of the performance of a single degree of freedom system are obtained using Monte Carlo simulation considering the seismic demand, the fundamental period, and the strength of the structure as uncertain variables. With these results, the conditional probability that a structure exceeds a specific performance level is obtained. The authors consider that the proposed procedure is a significant improvement to others considered in the literature and a useful research tool for the further development of uniform fragility spectra that can be used for the performance‐based seismic design and retrofit of structures.