层次分析与模糊数学综合评价法在矿山环境评价中的应用

采用遥感技术提取矿山环境评价因子,运用层次分析法与模糊数学法对三江成矿带南段矿山环境进行综合评价.层次分析法确定的矿山环境评价因子按权重排序,依次为植被覆盖率、土地利用、地形地貌、矿山地质灾害、水土流失和矿山开发占地;模糊数学法评价的区域矿山环境隶属第一等级“好”.通过GIS平台,按权重值对评价因子进行叠加、成图,实现了三江成矿带南段的矿山环境评价.层次分析与模糊数学综合评价法,不仅综合考虑矿山环境影响因子,且充分发挥了2种数学方法的优点,将动态与静态、定量与非定量等指标有机结合,发挥其因素和过程的模糊性,减少了专家人为评分的主观性,使评价结果更符合实际.     

21世纪初期层序地层学发展的新方向

层序地层学是在年代格架中划分和对比沉积岩的一门分支学科。尽管使用广泛,但是由于多种模式并存,术语使用缺乏规范,所以没有纳入任何地层规范和指南。鉴于此,以Catuneanu为首的地质学家致力于将层序地层学标准化,并且把层序重新定义为"在可容纳空间或沉积物供给变化的一个完整旋回中所形成的地层序列",提出了非依赖模式型(model-independent approach)的标准化工作流程,强调层序地层学的重点是体系域和层序地层界面,并且根据可使用资料的质量选择最佳层序模式(如沉积层序模式、成因层序模式)。层序地层学的标准化不论是否可以引领层序地层学进入国际地层规范和指南,这对于在复杂而不完整的岩石记录中寻求某种普遍规律都是一种有益的尝试,并且可以为今后的研究提供重要线索。     

基于面向对象分类技术的沈阳市土地利用动态变化研究

基于RS和GIS技术,采用面向对象分类技术,根据沈阳市的实际情况,建立土地利用类型解译标志,利用多尺度分割方法进行影像分割,然后利用决策树法和最近邻的分类方法,建立分类规则,提取区域土地利用信息,得到该区域的两期土地利用/土地覆被数据,并对研究区的土地利用动态变化及引起这种变化的驱动力进行分析.研究中所采用的面向对象的分类方法在地表景观信息提取中充分利用了地物的光谱信息、纹理特征等特征,最大程度上克服由于不同地物光谱信息相似、相同地物光谱信息不同而造成的混分现象.     

登陆青岛的热带气旋及其降水特征分析

利用中国台风年鉴资料、地面及探空观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析数据以及NERA-GOOS海温数据,首先分析了1949-2019年在青岛登陆的四个热带气旋特征,然后对1909号台风“利奇马”对山东半岛造成的降水强度差异进行对比研究.分析表明:1)1949年以来有4个台风于8月以登陆北上和登陆转向路径在青岛登陆,其在中...     

基于LEAP模型的城市交通低碳发展路径研究——以广州市为例

以广州市为例,应用长期能源替代规划系统（LEAP）模型,通过设置政策情景、低碳情景和绿色低碳情景,模拟不同发展情景下广州交通领域未来的能源消费需求和CO₂排放趋势,分析城市低碳发展的方向和路径。结果显示,随着城镇化进程的加快和生产生活运输需求的增加,广州交通领域碳排放总量将持续增长,但增长速度有所放缓。政策情景下,广州交通领域的CO₂排放将于2035年左右达到峰值,严重滞后于广州市提出的碳排放总量达峰目标;低碳和绿色低碳情景下,通过加大低碳政策措施的力度,达峰时间有望分别提前到2025年和2023年。要实现城市交通的低碳发展,促进交通碳排放提前达峰,需要大力发展铁路和水路运输,全面落实公交优先发展战略,有效控制小汽车数量和出行频率,不断提高交通工具的清洁化和能效水平,逐步形成各种运输方式协调发展的综合交通运输体系,推动城市交通低碳发展。     

Comprehensive Marine Observing Experiment Based on High-Altitude Large Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(South China Sea Experiment2020 of the “Petrel Project”)

In collaboration with 12 other institutions, the Meteorological Observation Center of the China Meteorological Administration undertook a comprehensive marine observation experiment in the South China Sea using the Yilong-10 high-altitude large unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV). The Yilong-10 UAV carried a self-developed dropsonde system and a millimeter-wave cloud radar system. In addition, a solar-powered unmanned surface vessel and two drifting buoys were used. The experiment was further supported by an intelligent, reciprocating horizontal drifting radiosonde system that was deployed from the Sansha Meteorological Observing Station, with the intent of producing a stereoscopic observation over the South China Sea. Comprehensive three-dimensional observations were collected using the system from 31 July to2 August, 2020. This information was used to investigate the formation and development processes of Typhoon Sinlaku(2020). The data contain measurements of 21 oceanic and meteorological parameters acquired by the five devices, along with video footage from the UAV. The data proved very helpful in determining the actual location and intensity of Typhoon Sinlaku(2020). The experiment demonstrates the feasibility of using a high-altitude, large UAV to fill in the gaps between operational meteorological observations of marine areas and typhoons near China, and marks a milestone for the use of such data for analyzing the structure and impact of a typhoon in the South China Sea. It also demonstrates the potential for establishing operational UAV meteorological observing systems in the future, and the assimilation of such data into numerical weather prediction models.     

A STUDY ON SATELLITE DATA ASSIMILATION WITH DIFFERENT ATOVS IN TYPHOON NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS

Based on the newly developed Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF)and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation(3DVAR)system,this study constructed twelve experiments to explore the impact of direct assimilation of different ATOVS radiance on the intensity and track simulation of super-typhoon Fanapi(2010)using a data assimilation cycle method.The result indicates that the assimilation of ATOVS radiance could improve typhoon intensity effectively.The average bias of the central sea level pressure(CSLP)drops to 18 hPa,compared to 42 hPa in the experiment without data assimilation.However,the influence due to different radiance data is not significant,which is less than 6hPa on average,implying limited improvement from sole assimilation of ATOVS radiance.The track issue is studied in the following steps.First,the radiance from the same sensor of different satellites could produce different effect.For the AMSU-A,NOAA-15 and NOAA-18,they produce equivalent improvement,whereas NOAA-16 produces slightly poor effect.And for the AMSU-B,NOAA-15 and NOAA-16,they produce equivalent and more positive effect than that provided by the AMSU-A.Second,the assimilation radiance from different sensors of the identical satellites could also produce different effect.The assimilation of AMSU-B produces the largest improvement,while the ameliorating effect of HIRS/3assimilation is inferior to that of AMSU-B assimilation,while the AMSU-A assimilation exhibits the poorest improvement.Moreover,the simultaneous assimilation of different radiance could not produce further improvement.Finally,the experiments of simultaneous assimilation radiance from multiple satellites indicate that such assimilation may lead to negative effect due to accumulative bias when adding various radiance data into the data assimilation system.Thus the assimilation of ATOVS radiance from a single satellite may perform better than that from two or three satellites.     

多类重力场模型的精度分析

分析国际公布的EGM2008、GECO和EIGEN-6C4等超高阶重力场模型及GOCO03S、GOCONSGCF2DIRR5和GOCONSGCF2TIMR5等低阶重力场模型的内符合精度。利用实测的GNSS/水准数据对各模型进行外符合精度的检核。分析6个模型在不同阶次组合的精度,进而选取可靠的截断阶次确定组合重力场模型。计算结果表明:EGM2008、GECO、EIGEN-6C4及DIRR5四个重力场模型的阶方差均保持在mm级,而GOCO03S在191阶之后的精度达到dm级,TIMR5模型在228阶之后的精度达到dm级;6个重力场模型中,EIGEN-6C4模型的累计阶方差最小;EGM2008、GECO模型的互差阶方差在高频部分呈现差异,而在超高阶部分两种模型的互差阶方差符合性好;与EGM2008模型相比,其组合重力场模型高程异常精度最优可达0.063 m,精度提升幅度为15%,与GECO模型相比,其组合重力场模型高程异常精度最优可达0.060 m,精度提升幅度为23%,与EIGEN-6C4模型相比,其对应的组合重力场模型高程异常精度最优可达0.064 m,精度提升幅度为18%,因此,组合重力场模型能提高重力场模型高程异常的精度。     

华北汛期降水长期变化规律研究新进展

华北汛期降水的年代际减少,一直是气候学领域关心的重要课题之一。本文扼要回顾了华北汛期旱涝研究的最新代表性成果,主要包括华北汛期起讫的客观识别、华北汛期降水多时间尺度的变化特征、华北汛期降水变化与大气遥相关型的关系,以及华北汛期降水量增多趋势的停滞等。在此基础之上,归纳和总结了该领域需要继续深入研究的问题,如：华北汛期起讫时间的统一性;在华北汛期降水年代际变少的归因分析中,其年际振荡成分衰减的物理原因;华北汛期降水年代际变多趋势停滞的原因;华北汛期降水何时恢复增多等科学问题。     

VARIATION OF TOTAL OZONE IN LOWER LATITUDE AREA OF CHINA

By using the observational O3 data of Kunming and Hong Kong during the period of 1997 – 2001, the paper studies the distribution and variation of total ozone in low latitude region of China. The study shows that the characteristics of variation in Kunm…