Water resources and ecological conditions in the Tarim Basin

Temporal sequential analyses of the hydrological observational data in the Tarim Basin over the last forty years revealed an annual increase of 2× 10⁷m³ in the water quantities at the three headstreams of the upper courses and an annual decrease of 3 × 10⁷m³ in the water flow from Alaer, which is on the upper main stream. A prediction of the trends indicates that there can be severe situations under which intermittent water interceptions occur. By means of approximate estimations on vegetative water consumption through phreatic evaporation combined with a quota assessment, the ecological water demands required to maintain the ecological environment in the mainstream area over the three different targeted years of 2005, 2010 and 2030 are defined as standing at 31.86 × 10⁸m³, 36.27 × 10⁸m³ and 41.04 × 10⁸m³ respectively. Ecological fragility indexes are established on the basis of the selection of environmental sensitivity factors. Rational evaluations give proof that the lower reaches of the mainstream have already turned into zones where their ecological environments are gravely damaged. Multi-objective optimization should be conducted and protective schemes be framed within the threshold limits of the bearing capacities of water resources and the environment     

不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型

泥石流预报是泥石流减灾的重要手段之一，然而泥石流形成的复杂性使泥石流预报准确度低，误报和漏报率较高。泥石流误报和漏报都会造成损失，但二者造成的损失有很大的差别。为了减少泥石流误报或漏报造成的损失，应当考虑两种错报造成损失的不同。根据使总平均损失达到最小的原则，建立了不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型，并将该模型应用到云南东川蒋家沟。     

鄂尔多斯高原景观格局变化分析--以伊金霍洛旗为例

以位于内蒙古鄂尔多斯高原上的伊金霍洛旗为研究区域，以景观生态学的数量分析方法为基本手段，在土地利用现状分类体系下，以其1984、1991和1998年3个年度的土地利用图为基础。从区域和斑块类型两个尺度上，对其景观格局进行了数量分析。结果表明，在三个典型年度。天然草地为伊金霍洛旗的景观基质，景观格局指数的所有变化均是在此基础上发生和演变的。从整个景观尺度的格局指数变化情况显示，伊金霍洛旗景观的破碎化程度在增加；同时景观的异质性程度在下降，景观愈来愈有少数景观斑块类型所控制。而在斑块类型这一尺度上的格局指数变化说明，不同类型斑块的复杂性的变化趋势基本相同，即均有不同程度的增长，但增加幅度有限；同时还说明，不同类型斑块内部其大小差异的幅度在不断缩小。但从不同年度的变化情况来看，无论是区域还是不同的斑块类型，其格局指数的变化并不与总体的变化趋势同步。     

天山1号冰川厚度和冰下地形探测与冰储量分析

通过对天山乌鲁木齐河源 1号冰川的雷达回波探测 ,清晰地揭示出冰川底部冰 /岩界面的位置及其起伏变化特征 ,显示出雷达波对山地冰川良好的穿透能力和对冰下地形的高分辨能力 ,冰川雷达测厚的误差小于 1 .2 %。研究结果显示 ,1号冰川东支冰川平均厚度为 5 8.77m ,西支冰川平均厚度为 44.84m ,冰体厚度最大值发育于冰川中部趋于主流线位置。冰川冰储量计算表明 ,东支冰储量为 0 .0 5 1 868km3,西支冰储量为 0 .0 2 0 2 1 0km3。表面和底部地形有明显差异 ,主要因冰川动力过程对基岩强烈的地貌作用所致 ,意味着冰床的起伏地形对冰川浅层冰体的运动过程影响不显著。     

Influence of Arctic Oscillation on winter climate over China

In this study the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and climate in China in boreal winter are investigated. Correlation analysis for the last 41 years shows that the winter temperature and precipitation in China change in phase with AO. High positive correlation (>0.4) between temperature and AO appears in the northern China. High correlation coefficients between precipitation and AO cover the southern China (close to the South China Sea) and the central China (between 30o-40oN and east of ~100oE), with the values varying between +0.3 and +0.4. It is found that during the past several decades the precipitation was strongly affected by AO, but for the temperature the Siberian High plays a more important role. At the interdecadal time scale the AO has significant influence on both temperature and precipitation. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrates that AO and the Siberian High related variance in temperature and precipitation is 35% and 11% respectively. For precipitation, however the portion is rather low, implying that some other factors may be responsible for the changes in precipitation, in addition to AO and the Siberian High.     

Extreme climate events over northern China during the last 50 years

Climate extremes for agriculture-pasture transitional zone, northern China, are analyzed on the basis of daily mean temperature and precipitation observations for 31 stations in the period 1956-2001. Analysis season for precipitation is May-September, i.e., the rainy season. For temperature is the hottest three months, i.e., June through August. Heavy rain events, defined as those with daily precipitation equal to or larger than 50 mm, show no significant secular trend. A jump-like change, however, is found occurring in about 1980. For the period 1980-1993, the frequency of heavy rain events is significantly lower than the previous periods. Simultaneously, the occurring time of heavy rains expanded, commencing about one month early and ending one month later. Long dry spells are defined as those with longer than 10 days without rainfall. The frequency of long dry spells displays a significant (at the 99% confidence level) trend at the value of +8.3%/10a. That may be one of the major causes of the frequent droughts emerging over northern China during the last decades. Extremely hot and low temperature events are defined as the uppermost 10% daily temperatures and the lowest 10% daily temperatures, respectively. There is a weak and non-significant upward trend in frequency of extremely high temperatures from the 1950s to the mid-1990s. But the number of hot events increases as much as twice since 1997. That coincides well with the sudden rise in mean summer temperature for the same period. Contrary to that, the frequency of low temperature events have been decreasing steadily since the 1950s, with a significant linear trend of -15%/10a.     

南天山西段古生代火山岩Ar-Ar年龄新资料

根据新近采自中国南天山西段志留-泥盆系乌帕塔尔坎群中的安山岩样品和石炭-二叠纪康克林组上部英安岩角砾样品的全岩Ar-Ar定年测试,乌帕塔尔坎群安山岩的坪年龄为427.70±0.60 Ma,等时年龄为426.96±4.57 Ma; 康克林组上部的英安岩角砾的坪年龄为288.16±0.40 Ma,等时年龄为289.18±2.02 Ma.测试结果为研究中国南天山(西段)古生代造山带的构造体系提供了新的依据.     

我国部分市郊农田的重金属污染与防治途径

分析了我国部分主要城市农田土壤及农作物重金属污染状况，以了解土壤中与农作物中重金属污染物间的相互关系、变化趋势及造成污染的影响因素。结果表明，我国各大城市的农田土壤及农作物都存在不同程度的重金属污染，北方地区的土壤及农作物受重金属污染程度普遍高于南方。重金属在农作物与土壤中的含量一般呈正相关关系，受多种因素影响。对于已污染的土壤，可采用农业工程措施、生物修复法和施用改良剂等予以治理。     

陷落柱的探查与综合治理实践

介绍了桃园煤矿井下所见陷落柱的出露特征。为指导巷道施工，消除水患威胁，采取了综合勘探方法查明陷落柱的范围、高度、导水性等情况，并阐述了注浆加固综合治理陷落柱的方法。