Long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment of El Chichón Volcano (Mexico) through Bayesian inference

Natural Hazards - The 1982 eruption of El Chichón volcano constitutes the worst volcanic disaster in Mexico producing more than 2000 fatalities, thousands of displaced people and severe...     

Laboratory simulation of geogas microbubble flow

Preliminary laboratory tests provided first data on the behavior of gas microbubbles through porous media in the framework of the geogas theory. Under experimented conditions with laboratory equipment arranged for pressure controlled gas-tracer injection and sampling, gas microbubbles moved up to ten times faster than singlephase flow in dry media under the same injection pressure. Microbubbles were determined to be very sensitive to changes in injection pressure and their terminal velocity seems to be described with good approximation by the Stokes formula. The capability of microbubbles to pick up and transport upward for short distances solid ultra-small particles (metallic and radionuclide compounds) has been proved. Results are consistent with a time-dependent process linked to the transport properties of microbubbles (e.g., flotation), such as that reported by some authors.     

Ozone production due to emissions from vegetation burning

Ozone has been observed in elevated concentrations by satellites over areas previously believed to be background. There is meteorological evidence, that these ozone plumes found over the Atlantic Ocean originate from vegetation fires on the African continent.In a previous study (DECAFE-88), we have investigated ozone and assumed precursor compounds over African tropical forest regions. Our measurements revealed large photosmog layers at altitudes from 1.5 to 4 km. Both chemical and meteorological evidence point to savanna fires up to several thousand km upwind as sources.Here we describe ozone mixing ratios observed over western Africa and compare ozone production ratios from different field measurement campaigns related to vegetation burning. We find that air masses containing photosmog ingredients require several days to develop their oxidation potential, similar to what is known from air polluted by emissions from fossil fuel burning. Finally, we estimate the global ozone production due to vegetation fires and conclude that this source is comparable in strength to the stratospheric input.     

POPULATION CENSUS WITH THE AID OF AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS: AN EXPERIMENT IN THE CITY OF LEEDS

This study shows how aerial photographs can be of value in a population census. The census and the enumeration district maps were used initially to obtain population data and the housing stock was derived from the aerial photographs. From these the population densities were determined of a number of sample enumeration districts containing a single type of house. Another set of enumeration districts was selected and the housing stock again derived from the aerial photographs. By considering the type and quantity of housing stock and the population density of each housing type, the population figures were estimated for each enumeration district. The values of these population estimates were then compared with the values recorded in the census. The overall population estimate had an error of only 2%, but the estimates for some of the individual enumeration districts showed greater errors. These errors are assessed and analysed and some suggestions are made to improve the methodology used in this study.     

Group Time Delay in the Reflection of P-Polarized Electromagnetic Plane Waves at a Stratigraphic Interface

The group time delay (GTD) formulae of quasi-total reflection of inhomogeneous P-polarized electromagnetic waves (P-PEW, whose electric field parallels to the plane of incidence), caused by the Goos–Hänchen effect, is derived by the phase shift of the wave. A numerical example where the frequency equals to 1 GHz is given. The curves of calculating results show that there are three discontinuous points at the critical angle of phase shift vector, the critical angle of attenuation vector and 90^○. When the angle of incidence is equal to one of these three angles, the GTD will become infinite, and the electromagnetic wave will propagate along the interface. The GTD will be very large, when the angle of incidence is close to one of these three angles. The results indicate that there is an important relationship between the two critical angles and the conductivity and permittivity of the two strata, and that the GTD has an important relationship with the angle of incidence. These results can be used to determine the lithology of the strata and to delimit the interfaces of strata more effectively. It is suggested that this research may prove useful in electromagnetic logging analysis and, perhaps, in the design of logging instruments.     

Palaeoenvironment of mid- to late Holocene loess deposit of the southern margin of the Tarim Basin,NW China

Holocene environmental history in the Tarim Basin and the Taklimakan Desert is known mainly from isolated eolian and lacustrine deposits and remain puzzling. Here we present an adequately preserved loess section, covering the past 5000 years, at a highland (2,850 m a.s.l) on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains. Pollen preserved in the section reveal a drying trend with significant moisture fluctuations around 3000–2600 cal yr BP and 1800 cal yr BP at the study site. Comparing the pollen, grain size from the same section provides a different scene occurred in the Tarim basin and the Taklimakan desert. Comparison of grain size to A/C ration of pollen suggests that active sand southward shifting in south margin of the desert is coincident with increasing moisture condition at the section locality, implying a casual link. This moisture pattern occurred at the upper and lower elevation of the slope is best explained by the vertical variation of local precipitation along the slope.     

New palaeomagnetic data from Central Iran and a Triassic palaeoreconstruction

New pole positions for Triassic and Cretaceous times have been obtained from volcanic and sedimentary sequences in Central Iran. These new results confirm the general trend of the Apparent Polar Wander Path (APWP) of the Central-East-Iran microplate (CEIM) from the Triassic through the Tertiary as published by Soffel and Förster (1983, 1984). Two new palaeopoles for the Triassic of the CEIM have been obtained; limestones and tuffs from the Nakhlak region yield a mean direction of 094.0°/25.0°, N=12, k=4.1,α ₉₅=24.7°, after bedding correction, corresponding to a palaeopole position of 310.8°E; 3.9°S, and volcanic rocks from the Sirjan regions yield a mean direction of 114.5°/35.1°, N=44, k=45.9,α ₉₅=3.2° after bedding correction and a palaeopole position of 295.8°E; 10.3°N. Combining these with the two previously published results yields a new palaeopole position of 317.5°E; 12.7°N, for the Triassic of the CEIM, thus confirming that large counterclockwise rotations of the CEIM have occurred since the Triassic time. New results have also been obtained from Cretaceous limestones from the Saghand region of the CEIM. The mean direction of 340.7°/26.3°, N=33, k=44.3,α ₉₅=3.8°, and the corresponding palaeopole position of 283.1°E; 64.4°N, is in agreement with previously determined Cretaceous palaeopole positions of the CEIM. Furthermore, results have also been obtained from Triassic dolomite, limestone, sandstone and siltstone from the Natanz region, which is located to the west of the CEIM. A total of 161 specimens from 44 cores taken at five sites gave a mean direction of the five sites at 033.3°/25.1°, N=5, k=69.0,α ₉₅=9.3° and a palaeopole position of 167.2°E; 53.7°N. They pass the positive fold test of McElhinny (1964) on the level of 99% confidence. This pole position is in fairly good agreement with the mean Triassic pole position of the Turan Plate (149°E; 49°N). It indicates that the area of Natanz has not undergone the large counterclockwise rotation relative to the Turan plate since the Triassic, which has been shown for the CEIM. A Triassic palaeogeographic reconstruction of Iran, Arabia (Gondwana) and the Turan Plate (Eurasia) is also presented.