Yearly tropical cyclone potential impact index in China

A new composite index called the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact(YTCPI)is introduced.The relationship between YTCPI and activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)in China,disaster loss,and main ambient fields are investigated to show the potential of YTCPI as a new tool for short-term climate prediction of TCs.YTCPI can indicate TC activity and potential disaster loss.As correlation coefficients between YTCPI and frequency of landfalling TCs,the frequency of TCs traversing or forming inside a 24 h warning line in China from 1971 to 2010 are 0.58 and 0.56,respectively(both are at a statistically significant level,aboveα=0.001).Furthermore,three simple indexes are used to compare with YTCPI.They all have very close relationships with it,with correlation coefficients 0.75,0.82 and 0.78.For economic loss and YTCPI,the correlation coefficient is 0.57 for 1994–2009.Information on principal ambient fields(sea surface temperature,850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights)during the previous winter is reflected in the relationship with YTCPI.Spatial and temporal variabilities of ambient fields are extracted through empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.Spatial distributions of correlation coefficient between YTCPI and ambient fields match the EOF main mode.Correlation coefficients between YTCPI and the EOF time array for the three ambient fields are 0.46,0.44 and 0.4,respectively,all statistically significant,aboveα=0.01.The YTCPI has the overall potential to be an improved prediction tool.     

地球公转轨道偏心率变化的构造运动响应

最近3Ma发生的主要构造运动和气候变化事件,在准0.4Ma周期上与地球轨道偏心率变化存在一致性。据黄土高原地层记录划分的构造气候旋回界限,日历年龄分别为0.07、0.46、0.83、1.32、1.70、2.08、2.74MaBP,对应于偏心率曲线波动幅度由大变小时段的特定转折位置。文中分析了地球公转运动变速的基本数据及其对地球自转运动和圈层相互作用的可能影响,探讨了轨道偏心率变化对构造运动的驱动机制,并指出了构造气候旋回研究可为地质力学理论发展展示良好的前景。      

三颗河外射电源第一历元的VLBI图像

本文给出利用上海、乌鲁木齐、意大利ＮＯＴＯ和南非ＨａｒｔＲＡＯ射电望远镜,对三颗河外射电源（１５３２＋０１６,２３２００２０,２３５１１５４）,在５ＧＨｚ频率上的第一历元ＶＬＢＩ观测成图结果     

A two-layer model for studying 2D dissolved pollutant runoff over impermeable surfaces

Dissolved pollutants in stormwater are a main contributor to water pollution in urban environments. However, many existing transport models are semi-empirical and only consider one-dimensional flows, which limit their predictive capacity. Combining the shallow water and the advection–diffusion equations, a two-dimensional physically based model is developed for dissolved pollutant transport by adopting the concept of a ‘control layer’. A series of laboratory experiments has been conducted to validate the proposed model, taking into account the effects of buildings and intermittent rainfalls. The predictions are found to be in good agreement with experimental observations, which supports the assumption that the depth of the control layer is constant. Based on the validated model, a parametric study is conducted, focusing on the characteristics of the pollutant distribution and transport rate over the depth. The hyetograph, including the intensity, duration and intermittency, of rainfall event has a significant influence on the pollutant transport rates. The depth of the control layer, rainfall intensity, surface roughness and area length are dominant factors that affect the dissolved pollutant transport. Finally, several perspectives of the new pollutant transport model are discussed. This study contributes to an in-depth understanding of the dissolved pollutant transport processes on impermeable surfaces and urban stormwater management.     

祁连山北缘深部弧形褶皱—逆冲带及其油气勘探前景

祁连山北缘-河西走廊西段位于青藏高原东北缘,是新生代陆内构造活动最强烈地区。基于野外构造观测、横跨山前及前陆盆地区的三维地震构造分析与解释,结合地震地质属性提取分析,识别出祁连山北缘-酒泉盆地西段窟窿山-柳沟庄带隐伏的弧形褶皱-逆冲带,该弧形构造是造山带基底逆冲构造楔体垂向差异抬升与向前陆方向差异运动的产物;该弧形结构控制本区下白垩统地层裂缝发育、分布与破裂强度,并与本区先期断裂、裂缝带产生构造叠加效应,形成弧形构造“中央强裂缝发育带”,是形成构造裂缝型油气藏的有利区域。     

基于密集流动地震台网资料研究古冶—滦县地区上地壳各向异性

自唐山地区发生7.8级地震以来, 古冶—滦县地区一直为唐山地震的余震频发区.该地区断裂和地质构造十分复杂, 这些断裂的破碎程度有哪些差异?这是地震学家所关心的问题.本文使用在古冶—滦县地区布设的密集流动地震台网2020年8月—2021年7月近一年的波形记录, 采用剪切波分裂原理通过对古冶—滦县地区上地壳各向异性研究来揭示这些问题.得到以下结论: (1)古冶—滦县地区快剪切波平均偏振方向为NE86.2°±27.8°, 慢剪切波平均时间延迟为2.37±1.25 ms·km^-1.快剪切波偏振第一优势方向为ENE向, 与区域背景主压应力方向一致; 第二优势方向为NE向, 该方向揭示了研究区域断裂主要以NE向为发育的构造意义.(2)唐山断裂带附近台站快剪切波偏振方向均显示出NE向的第二优势方向, 与断裂走向一致.断裂附近台站慢剪切波时间延迟较高, 各台站时间延迟差异较小, 表明区域各向异性程度较强, 断裂沿NE向破碎程度较强且破碎均匀.(3)滦县—乐亭断裂和卢龙断裂附近台站快剪切波偏振方向显示出复杂性, 表明两条活动断裂的交汇在地壳内部产生了复杂的地壳破裂裂隙结构.断裂附近台站慢剪切波时间延迟较高, 各台站时间延迟差异较大, 表明区域各向异性和断裂破碎程度较强, 且破碎不均匀.(4)丰台—野鸡坨断裂和榛子镇断裂附近台站快剪切波偏振方向与区域主压应力方向接近, 慢剪切波时间延迟最小, 表明断裂对其附近台站快剪切波偏振方向影响大不, 区域各向异性和断裂破碎程度较弱, 断裂内部裂隙可能存在愈合的现象.另外, 本文还针对1976年唐山M_S7.8地震后在唐山断裂带上出现的尖端效应是否对唐山断裂带北段应力场产生了影响做出了讨论.本研究结果不仅反映了断裂分布的复杂程度与地壳各向异性的关系, 还揭示了地壳各向异性在不同破碎程度断裂上的差异.

     

Analysis of earthquake ground motions using an improved Hilbert–Huang transform

Some limitations of the Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) for nonlinear and nonstationary signal processing are remarked. As an enhancement to the HHT, a time varying vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model based method is proposed to calculate the instantaneous frequencies of the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) obtained from the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) of a signal. By representing the IMFs as time varying VARMA model and using the Kalman filter to estimate the time varying model parameters, the instantaneous frequencies are calculated according to the time varying parameters, then the instantaneous frequencies and the envelopes derived from the cubic spline interpolation of the maxima of IMFs are used to yield the Hilbert spectrum. The analysis of the length of day dataset and the ground motion record El Centro (1940, N–S) shows that the proposed method offers advantages in frequency resolution, and produces more physically meaningful and readable Hilbert spectrum than the original HHT method, short-time Fourier transform (STFT) and wavelet transform (WT). The analysis of the seismic response of a building during the 1994 Northridge earthquake shows that the proposed method is a powerful tool for structural damage detection, which is expected as the promising area for future research.     

浙南近海虾类群落结构及其多样性分析

作者根据2015年11月(秋季)、2016年2月(冬季)、2016年5月(春季)和2016年8月(夏季)对浙南近海进行的渔业资源调查数据,用生物量作为虾类资源分布的数量指标,对该海域虾类的组成、数量分布以及季节变化进行分析。结果显示:该区域共鉴定出虾类30种,隶属于10科21属,以对虾科(Penaeidae)虾类最多,其次为管鞭虾科(Solenoceridae),长臂虾科(Palaemonida)位居第3位。按季节来看,秋季共鉴定虾类27种,各站位平均生物量为6.97 kg/km2,优势种为凹陷管鞭虾(Solenocera koelbeli)、中国毛虾(Acetes chinensis)和中华管鞭虾(Solenocera crassicornis)等3种;冬季鉴定出虾类25种,平均生物量为1.65 kg/km2,优势种为凹陷管鞭虾、扁足异对虾(Atypopenaeus stenodactylus)、日本鼓虾(Alpheus japonicus)、鲜明鼓虾(Alpheus digitalis)、中国毛虾、中华管鞭虾和周氏新对虾(Metapenaeus joyneri)等7种;春季20种,平均生物量为2.22 kg/km2,优势种为戴氏赤虾(Metapenaeopsis dalei)、东海红虾(Metapenaeopsis dalei)和中华管鞭虾等3种;夏季16种,平均生物量为10.36 kg/km2,优势种有鹰爪虾(Trachysalambria curvirostris)和中华管鞭虾等2种。Margalef丰富度指数(D)、Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H′)和Pielou均匀度指数(J′)秋季均低于冬季。秋冬季受到浙闽沿岸流影响,温度、盐度相对较低,夏季受到台湾暖流外侧影响,温度、盐度相对较高,且各季节间由于瓯江、椒江、飞云江、鳌江等陆源性冲淡水的影响,盐度、温度变化相对较大,使得该区域的物种不得不适应一个跨度较大的温盐范围,广温广盐性种类为主。     

内蒙古中部二叠纪碱性花岗岩及其地球动力学意义

西伯利亚板块南缘白音乌拉－东乌珠穆沁旗带的碱性花岗岩（Ｒｂ－Ｓｒ年龄２７６－２８６Ｍａ）生成于张性的构造环境，较西伯亚板块同中朝板块之间晚泥盆世－早石炭世的碰撞事件晚约６０Ｍａ，属于造山后的Ａ型花岗岩，可作为造山作用结束的标志。但在中朝板块北缘晚石炭世－二叠纪只发育钙碱性的晚造山花岗岩，直到三叠纪才出现碱性正长岩。相邻两大板块边缘之间岩浆活动的非对称性可能是受板块间面积和质量差别的制约。     

氧化铝粉对微孔方镁石—镁铝尖晶石耐火骨料显微结构和性能的影响

以盐湖轻烧MgO粉和煅烧Al2O3粉为原料制备了4组微孔方镁石－镁铝尖晶石耐火骨料(镁铝尖晶石5 wt.%~20 wt.%),并采用XRD、SEM和压汞仪等研究了煅烧Al2O3粉添加量(3.7 wt.%,7.7 wt.%,12.1 wt.%和16.8 wt%)对其显微结构和性能的影响。煅烧Al2O3粉在骨料内部形成多孔状镁铝尖晶石颗粒,增加其添加量,可增大微孔骨料的显气孔率,降低体积密度。尽管多孔状镁铝尖晶石微颗粒与MgO微颗粒间存在微裂纹,降低了耐火骨料的抗折强度,但该多孔镁铝尖晶石微颗粒能够诱导微孔骨料中微裂纹产生偏转和裂纹分支,在经受热震冲击时,能改善微孔骨料的热震稳定性。当煅烧Al2O3粉的添加量为7.7wt.%时,微孔方镁石－镁铝尖晶石耐火骨料拥有最佳的综合性能,其体积密度为3.23 g/cm3,中位孔径为386.1 nm,抗折强度为45.2 MPa,800 °C导热系数为10.5 W/(m·K),热震后抗折强度保持率最高(97.0%)。