关于地震预报决策程序问题的讨论

地震预报决策是大家所关心的问题。地震预报决策正确与否,关系到能否达到减灾目的。科学的地震预报决策程序是实现正确的地震预报决策的保证。本文就地震预报决策中有关决策目标的确定,地震预测,震害预测,地震对策,预报决策备择方案的制定及评估,决策方案的选择及实施等问题进行了讨论。     

机载合成孔径雷达图像频谱分析技术地质应用评价

频谱分析是空间滤波的一种。本文使用光学傅里叶变换分析SAR图像的空间频率特征。从取得的功率谱与功率谱角分布数据中可以:(1)确定与雷达后向散射方向有关面的走向最大(最小)方位角;(2)分析频谱曲线两个峰的夹角及其地学意义;(3)推算其水系密度;(4)研究样区地形基本特征。 这些资料有助于研究线性构造区域展布特征,岩类识别和地貌分类等。     

春季热带地区OLR低频振荡及其与长江中下游连阴雨

本文应用NOAA卫星接收的1975—1983年向外长波辐射(OLR)资料研究了春季热带地区低频振荡的基本特征,得出东半球热带地区盛行周期为30天左右的低频振荡,这种振荡最显著的区域在0—10°S、70—90°E的印度洋地区。文章阐述了过渡季节这种低频振荡的经向和纬向传播特征。 本文还进一步指出,在热带低频振荡的不同阶段,ITCZ、北半球副热带以及西风带环流系统也呈现出显著的周期变化,并查证了低频振荡作为长江中下游连阴雨和连晴过程的背景事实。因此本研究工作也为长江中下游连阴雨和连晴天气的中、长期可预报性提供     

春季高原东侧水平稳定层分析

本文利用稠密的探空资料,分析了春季高原东侧的水平稳定层。确定了该稳定层的范围和强度,指出了其温度、湿度和流场特征,并初步探讨了其维持机制。     

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION

In order to consider both the deterministic and the stochastic property of atmospheric motion simul-taneously,in this paper,the weather prediction is proposed as the problem of the evolution of meteorologicalfield.The historical viewpoint of atmospheric motion is emphasized here.Based on time series analysis te-chnique,a stochastic-dynamical model with multiple initial fields is derived.Thus,weather forecasting is sum-meal up as a problem of solving a set of stochastic difference equations.For the barotropic atmosphere,thenumerical solutions of the equations are obtained by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions(EOF),and examples of medium-range weather prediction are given here.Meanwhile,selecting the order oftime series,i.e.,determining the number of initial fields properly,is also discussed.     

Location of Tibetan earthquakes──a nonlinear approach by a simplex optimized technique

Ｌｏｃａｔｉｏｎ　ｏｆ　Ｔｉｂｅｔａｎ　ｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓ──ａ　ｎｏｎｌｉｎｅａｒ　ａｐｐｒｏａｃｈ　ｂｙ　ａ　ｓｉｍｐｌｅｘ　ｏｐｔｉｍｉｚｅｄ　ｔｅｃｈｎｉｑｕｅ（赵珠）（丁志峰）（易桂喜／）（王建格）ＬｏｃａｔｉｏｎｏｆＴｉｂｅｔａｎｅａ...     

水平分量磁变仪标度值随记录n变化率的测定及应用

水平分量磁变仪标度值Ｓ随记录ｎ的变化呈稳定的线性关系，但变化率Ｋｎ各地磁台仪器并不相同。用本文方法测定Ｋｎ可以获得满意的结果。Ｋｎ的精确测定可使水平分量磁变仪非线性记录的计算方法进入实用化，可以校正Ｋ尺或电磁转换函计算值使之更精确，从而提高地磁资料质量。     

气象因子对近地面臭氧污染影响的研究

本文通过对１９９３年春季和春夏之交的O3浓度逐日变化、日变化和气象因子关系的分析，提出了影响O3浓度的主导气象因子和不同情况下形成高浓度O3的主要因子，提出了大风速对逐日变化中O3浓度特高及浓度日变化峰值的重要作用，并指出高温、低湿、小风并不是在所有情况都是促成高浓度O3的因子。另外，雾也可以成为近地面O3浓度增值的因素，主要原因是雾内湍流发展将高浓度O3大量输向下方。     

Discovery of Early Tertiary Hydrothermal Activity and Its Significance in Oil／Gas Geology,Dougpu Depression,Henan Province,China

Data from the super-deep wells(PS10,PS14 and YS1)led to the discovery of widespread met-al-bearing hydrothermal fluids (or hot brines) related to basic magmas in the Lower Tertiary clastic sequence in the Dongpu Depression .In terms of SEM and EDAX analyses, pore-casting thin section examination of sandstone ,the composition and forming temperature of fluid inclusions ,the trace ele-ment composition of mustone and kerogen and organic geochemical analyses, it is demonstrated that the hydrothermal fluids existing in the area studied are ejecting fluids, which have a close bearing on diagenesis and sedimentation, rather than intrusive veins along the tectonic fractures.The main indicators of hydrothermal activity are:(1)abnormal alteration of kerogen;(2) high-temperature altered mineral assemblage;(30abnormal distribution of hydrocarbons;(4) specific assemblages and abnormal contents of heavy metals in mudstone and kerogen;(5) specific composi-tion of complex compounds and assemblages of fluid inclusions in sandstone;(6) periodic basaltic magma activity.Results of geological observations and laboratory simulating experiments demonstrated that the hydrothermal fluids have a close bearing on hydrocarbon generation in the Dongpu Depression. Two aspects of the effect of hydrothermal fluids are noticed:hydrothermal hydrocarbon production and strong metal catalysis in oil and gas generation.