江苏水文站网优化调整有关问题的思考

在概述全省站网现状基础上，分析了站网优化调整的主要原因，提出了如何优化调整的总体思路和基本构想，进一步明确强调在水文站网优化调整中需要坚持和把握的原则和方法。     

High-resolution structures of the Landers fault zone inferred from aftershock waveform data

High-frequency body waves recorded by a temporary seismic array across the surface rupture trace of the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake were used to determine fault-zone structures down to the seismogenic depth. We first developed a technique to use generalized ray theory to compute synthetic seismograms for arbitrarily oriented tabular low-velocity fault-zone models. We then generated synthetic waveform record sections of a linear array across a vertical fault zone. They show that both arrival times and waveforms of P and S waves vary systematically across the fault due to transmissions and reflections from boundaries of the low-velocity fault zone. The waveform characteristics and arrival-time patterns in the record sections allow us to locate the boundaries of the fault zone and to determine its P - and S -wave velocities independently as well as its depth extent. Therefore, the trade-off between the fault-zone width and velocities can be avoided. Applying the method to the Landers waveform data reveals a low-velocity zone with a width of 270–360 m and a 35–60 per cent reduction in P and S velocities relative to the host rock. The analysis suggests that the low-velocity zone extends to a depth of ∼7 km. The western boundary of the low-velocity zone coincides with the observed main surface rupture trace.     

陕蒙交界地区碎屑岩风化成因浅析

陕蒙交界地区基岩均具强风化,由此造成当地环境恶化、下游地区生态破坏和灾害积累。其形成机理应与岩石本身的物质组成、自然地理环境、地质构造状况、水文地质条件及其物理化学条件有关。而南部地区,由于上述诸因素的差别,基岩风化微弱。     

Quantifying geographic variations in associations between alcohol distribution and violence: a comparison of geographically weighted regression and spatially varying coefficient models

Past studies consistently indicate measurable local associations between alcohol distribution and the incidence of violence. These results, coupled with measurements of spatial correlation, reveal the importance of spatial analysis in the study of the interaction of alcohol and violence. While studies increasingly incorporate spatial correlation among model residuals to improve precision and reduce bias, to date, most analyses assume associations that are constant and independent of location, an assumption coming under increasing scrutiny in the quantitative geography literature. In this paper, we review and contrast two approaches for the estimation of and inference for spatially heterogeneous effects (i.e., associative factors whose impacts on the outcome of interest vary throughout geographic space). Specifically, we provide an in-depth comparison of “geographically weighted regression” models (allowing covariate effects to vary in space but only allowing relatively ad hoc inference) with “variable coefficient” models (allowing varying effects via spatial random fields and providing model-based estimation and inference, but requiring more advanced computational techniques). We compare the approaches with respect to underlying conceptual structures, computational implementation, and inferential output. We apply both approaches to violent crime, illegal drug arrest, and alcohol distribution data from Houston, Texas and compare results in light of the differing methodological structures of the two approaches.     

Prediction of surface horizontal displacements, and gravity and tilt changes caused by filling the Three Gorges Reservoir

 Horizontal displacements, and gravity and tilt changes induced by filling the Three Gorges Reservoir are modeled using elastic loading Green functions. When the water surface reaches its highest level, the effects become maximum on the reservoir banks. The longitudinal and latitudinal components of the horizontal displacements reach −8.2 and 7.7 mm respectively, gravity is increased by up to 3.4 mGal, and the prime vertical and meridian components of the tilt changes are −7.8 and −17.5 arcseconds respectively. Accordingly, the filling of the reservoir will influence values observed from global positioning system (GPS), gravimetry and tilt measurements in the area. The results given can be used to provide important corrections for extracting earthquake-related signals from observed data. Received: 19 January 2001 / Accepted: 3 September 2001     

江苏省夏季气温异常的海气背景

通过1961－1998年江苏省11个站点夏季（6－8月）平均气温的EOF分析，探讨江苏省夏温异常的时空分布结构，并在此基础上，分析其前期及同期500hPa高度距平场、海温距平场的特征，得到了一些对本地夏季气温异常预测有意义的结果。     

Discovery of Radiolarian Fossils from the Aiketik Group at the Western End of the South Tianshan Mountains of Chinaand Its Implications

The Aiketik Group, distributed at the western end of the South Tianshan Mountains, China, is an important lithostratigraphic unit involved in the South Tianshan orogen. It is separated from the adjacent rocks by faults. Generally, the geologists ascribed it to the Upper Carboniferous according to Pseudostaffella sp., Profusulinella sp. and Fusulinella sp. found from the limestone and sandy limestone of Aiketik. Our radiolarian fossils were obtained from the chert samples collected from the Haladaok section located at the upper Tuoshihan River. The fossils mainly include Albaillella undulata Deflandre, Albaillella paradoxa Deflandre, Albaillella sp. aff. A. paradoxa Deflandre, Albaillella sp. cf. A. deflandrei Gourmelon, Albaillella sp., Albaillella excelsa Ishiga, Kito and Imoto (?), Belowea variabilis (Ormiston et Lane), Callella cf. C. parvispinosa Won, Entactinia cf. E. tortispina Ormiston et Lane, Entactinia aff. E. tortispina Ormiston et Lane, Entactinia variospina Won, Entactinia sp., Eostylodicty     

Maximum-likelihood ambiguity resolution based on Bayesian principle

 Based on the Bayesian principle and the fact that GPS carrier-phase ambiguities are integers, the posterior distribution of the ambiguities and the position parameters is derived. This is then used to derive the maximum posterior likelihood solution of the ambiguities. The accuracy of the integer ambiguity solution and the position parameters is also studied according to the posterior distribution. It is found that the accuracy of the integer solution depends not only on the variance of the corresponding float ambiguity solution but also on its values. Received: 27 July 1999 / Accepted: 22 November 2000     

Climate Change in China from 1880 to 1998 and its Impact on the Environmental Condition

The global mean surface air temperature (SAT) or the Northern Hemisphere mean SAT has increased since the late nineteenth century, but the mean precipitation around the world has not formed a definite tendency to increase. A lot of studies showed that different climate and environmental changes during the past 100 years over various regions in the world were experienced. The climate change in China over the past 100 years and its impact on China's environmental conditions needs to be investigated in more detail.Data sets of surface air temperature and atmospheric precipitation over China since 1880 up to the present are now available. In this paper, a drought index has been formulated corresponding to both the temperature and precipitation. Based on three series of temperature, precipitation, and drought index, interdecadal changes in all 7 regions of China and temperature differences among individual regions are analyzed. Some interesting facts are revealed using the wavelet transform method. In Northeast China, the aridification trend has become more serious since 1970s. Drought index in North China has also reached a high value during 1990s, which seems similar to that period 1920s–1940s. In NorthwestChina, the highest temperature appeared over the period 1930s–1940s. Along the Yangtze River valley in central eastern China and Southwest China, interdecadal high temperature occurred from 1920s to 1940s and in 1990s, but the drought climate mainly appeared from 1920s to early 1940s. In South China, temperature remained at a high value over the period 1910s–1940s,but the smaller-scale variation of drought index was remarkable from 1880 to 1998. Consequently, the quasi-20-year oscillation (smaller-scale variation) and the quasi-70-year oscillation (secular variation) obviously exist in temperature and precipitation series in different regions over China.Climate change and intensified human activity in China have induced certain environmental evolutions, such as the frequency change of dust-storm event in northern China, no-flow in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and the runoff variation in Northwest China. On the other hand, frequent floods along the Yangtze River and high frequency of drought disaster have resulted in tremendous economic losses in the last decade in China. The primary reason for these happenings may be attributed to the evolution of the monsoon system in East Asian.     

南京地区中暑天气条件指数研究预报

本文采用南京地区1988－1997年每年夏季逐日各项气象要素及全市各医院同期重症中暑人数进行统计筛选出热夏年：1988年、1994年、1995年，对这三年中暑期重症中暑病例资料与气象资料进行相关统计分析，找出相关性较好的气象因子，经过方程化筛选，得出气温、湿度、气压、对中暑影响较大。三日滑动平均值为主要预报因子。设计中暑指数数学模式。根据中暑病病理、程度将中暑天气条件分三个等级，给出三个不同的中暑天气条件指数临界值，经过1998年、1999年试报验证，准确率较高，社会效益较好。该指数预测模式基本可行。