鄂尔多斯盆地上三叠统延长组长9油层组沉积相及其演化*

鄂尔多斯盆地延长组长9油层组发育三角洲—湖泊沉积相,三角洲平原分流河道砂体和三角洲前缘水下分流河道砂体是最有利的储集砂体。在沉积相研究的基础上,根据单因素分析多因素综合作图法,选取了地层厚度、较深水沉积岩含量、砂岩厚度、砂地比、自生绿泥石分布、古生物化石分布和沉积构造分布等单因素,对鄂尔多斯盆地延长组长9油层组上下2段的沉积相平面展布特征进行了深入研究,并探讨了其演化规律。研究表明,鄂尔多斯盆地以发育多水系、多物源注入的环湖分布的多个三角洲为特色,东北部地区主要发育曲流河三角洲,西部发育辫状河三角洲,其中以三角洲平原分流河道和三角洲前缘水下分流河道微相较为发育。长9₂沉积期,半深湖沉积在盆地内较为局限,长9₁沉积期湖盆初始扩张达到最大范围,湖岸线向陆推移,湖域面积扩大,半深湖沉积较发育。由长9₂沉积期到长9₁沉积期,鄂尔多斯盆地沉积水体经历了由浅变深的过程,由此在长9₂的顶部沉积了一套具有生烃潜力的油页岩。     

A fuzzy-Markov-chain-based analysis method for reservoir operation

In this study, a fuzzy-Markov-chain-based stochastic dynamic programming (FM-SDP) method is developed for tackling uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and distributions with fuzzy probability (DFPs) in reservoir operation. The concept of DFPs used in Markov chain is presented as an extended form for expressing uncertainties including both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. A fuzzy dominance index analysis approach is proposed for solving multiple fuzzy sets and DPFs in the proposed FM-SDP model. Solutions under a set of α-cut levels and fuzzy dominance indices can be generated by solving a series of deterministic submodels. The developed method is applied to a case study of a reservoir operation system. Solutions from FM-SDP provide a range of desired water-release policies under various system conditions for reservoir operation decision makers, reflecting dynamic and dual uncertain features of water availability simultaneously. The results indicate that the FM-SDP method could be applicable to practical problems for decision makers to obtain insight regarding the tradeoffs between economic and system reliability criteria. Willingness to obtain a lower benefit may guarantee meeting system-constraint demands; conversely, a desire to acquire a higher benefit could run into a higher risk of violating system constraints.     

东昆仑断裂东段下热尔断裂活动特征初步研究

下热尔断裂位于巴颜喀拉块体东北边界变形带即东昆仑断裂带东段与迭部-白龙江断裂2条剪切断裂之间挤压变形带内,在空间上属于“玛曲空段”范围.经野外考察及遥感资料验证,确定下热尔断裂走向为310°,长度约为20km,运动学特征表现为左旋走滑为主兼少量倾滑分量,沿断裂发育大量断错地貌,水平位移主要分布在3.5～5m,而未发现垂向断错地貌;垂直断裂走向开挖2处探槽,揭示断层切穿晚第四纪地层,被地表沼泽相泥炭层覆盖,结合相关地层年龄资料,初步得出平均水平滑动速率约为6.3mm/a.该断裂在几何学与运动学方面与东昆仑断裂带具有较好的一致性,推测两者之间存在一定相关性,属于东昆仑断裂带走滑断裂体系内的一条次级断裂或过渡性断裂.     

丽江7.0级地震重力前兆模式研究<

为了研究1996年丽江MＳ7.0地震前地震孕育过程或前兆表现,利用滇西地震实验场内高精度重复重力观测数据,结合地质调查和地球物理推断结果,并考虑到观测数据和模型粗差, 采用稳健或抗差-贝叶斯最小二乘算法和多断层位错模型,首次初步反演获得了研究区主要活动断裂滑动的时间变化分布．结果表明,1990～1997年断层运动的时间变化,较好地反映了1996年丽江MＳ7.0地震孕育过程．其主要前兆模式图象具有主震余震型特征,遵循地壳内部密度和地壳形变耦合运动模式（简称DD耦合运动模式）．     

一个区域地气耦合柱状模式的发展及其对半干旱区的模拟

在现有的区域气候模式的基础上构建了用于研究地气耦合模拟的区域柱状模式,其中包括了详细的物理过程,可以作为研究半干旱区地气相互作用过程的工具。通过区域柱状模式与不同陆面模式的耦合,检验了不同陆面模式在非耦合和耦合两种情况下对半干旱区的模拟性能。结果表明,陆面模式在耦合后对感热的模拟偏差放大,而潜热的模拟效果得到了改进,不同的陆面模式对区域柱状模式的模拟性能影响较大,耦合了CoLM后的区域柱状模式对地表气象要素的模拟得到了较大的改进。     

云南地区地震宏观异常特征研究

经历史震例及近几年地震震前短临跟踪预报实践，对宏观异常进行深入剖析，认为：宏观异常内容和数量多少与震级有关；宏观异常不只是短临和临震异常信息。也有不少是中短期、短期异常信息；宏观异常分布在震中及附近地区；最早出现的宏观异常地点对未来地震震中有一定指示意义。     

鄂尔多斯盆地中及上三叠统延长组沉积相与油气勘探的突破

鄂尔多斯盆地位于中国的中西部,跨陕、甘、宁、蒙、晋5省区,盆地本部面积25万km2.中及上三叠统延长组在盆地内广为展布,厚逾千米,发育冲积扇、河流、三角洲、湖泊等沉积相,是该地区重要的油气产层.根据盆地腹地100多口井的钻井资料及盆地周边地区的露头资料,以及长庆油田长时期对延长组的油气勘探经验,编制出了鄂尔多斯盆地中及...     

The Seasonal Variabilities in the Concentration of Atmospheric Aerosols over Qingdao, China

Mass concentrations of Total Suspended Particles （TSP） and size-segregated particles were obtained from July 2001 to June 2002 in Qingdao to characterize the seasonal variations of atmospheric aerosols and to show the impact of dust events on the air quality in Qingdao. Data on size-segregated aerosols show that 73.74% of the TSP mass concentration is contributed by particles with diameters less than 11 μm. Particles with diameters less than 1.1μm have a higher concentration during the winter. In spring, larger particles tend to have higher mass concentrations. Bimodal particle size distributions have been observed, with maxima around 4.7-7 μand 0.43-0.65 μm in the winter season, and 7-11 μm and 0.65-1.1 μm in the autumn season. Measurements made during the dust events in March 2002 show high concentrations of particles in the size range 2.1-7μm.