Incorporating circulation statistics in bias correction of GCM ensembles: hydrological application for the Rhine basin

An adapted statistical bias correction method is introduced to incorporate circulation-dependence of the model precipitation bias, and its influence on estimated discharges for the Rhine basin is analyzed for a historical period. The bias correction method is tailored to time scales relevant to flooding events in the basin. Large-scale circulation patterns (CPs) are obtained through Maximum Covariance Analysis using reanalysis sea level pressure and high-resolution precipitation observations. A bias correction using these CPs is applied to winter and summer separately, acknowledging the seasonal variability of the circulation regimes in North Europe and their correlation with regional precipitation rates over the Rhine basin. Two different climate model ensemble outputs are explored: ESSENCE and CMIP5. The results of the CP-method are then compared to observations and uncorrected model outputs. Results from a simple bias correction based on a delta factor (NoCP-method) are also used for comparison. For both summer and winter, the CP-method offers a statistically significant improvement of precipitation statistics for subsets of data dominated by particular circulation regimes, demonstrating the circulation-dependence of the precipitation bias. Uncorrected, CP and NoCP corrected model outputs were used as forcing to a hydrological model to simulate river discharges. The CP-method leads to a larger improvement in simulated discharge in the Alpine area in winter than in summer due to a stronger dependence of Rhine precipitation on atmospheric circulation in winter. However, the NoCP-method, in comparison to the CP-method, improves the discharge estimations over the entire Rhine basin.     

A phase-field method for the direct simulation of two-phase flows in pore-scale media using a non-equilibrium wetting boundary condition

Advances in pore-scale imaging (e.g., μ-CT scanning), increasing availability of computational resources, and recent developments in numerical algorithms have started rendering direct pore-scale numerical simulations of multi-phase flow on pore structures feasible. Quasi-static methods, where the viscous and the capillary limit are iterated sequentially, fall short in rigorously capturing crucial flow phenomena at the pore scale. Direct simulation techniques are needed that account for the full coupling between capillary and viscous flow phenomena. Consequently, there is a strong demand for robust and effective numerical methods that can deliver high-accuracy, high-resolution solutions of pore-scale flow in a computationally efficient manner. Direct simulations of pore-scale flow on imaged volumes can yield important insights about physical phenomena taking place during multi-phase, multi-component displacements. Such simulations can be utilized for optimizing various enhanced oil recovery (EOR) schemes and permit the computation of effective properties for Darcy-scale multi-phase flows.We implement a phase-field model for the direct pore-scale simulation of incompressible flow of two immiscible fluids. The model naturally lends itself to the transport of fluids with large density and viscosity ratios. In the phase-field approach, the fluid-phase interfaces are expressed in terms of thin transition regions, the so-called diffuse interfaces, for increased computational efficiency. The conservation law of mass for binary mixtures leads to the advective Cahn–Hilliard equation and the condition that the velocity field is divergence free. Momentum balance, on the other hand, leads to the Navier–Stokes equations for Newtonian fluids modified for two-phase flow and coupled to the advective Cahn–Hilliard equation. Unlike the volume of fluid (VoF) and level-set methods, which rely on regularization techniques to describe the phase interfaces, the phase-field method facilitates a thermodynamic treatment of the phase interfaces, rendering it more physically consistent for the direct simulations of two-phase pore-scale flow. A novel geometric wetting (wall) boundary condition is implemented as part of the phase-field method for the simulation of two-fluid flows with moving contact lines. The geometric boundary condition accurately replicates the prescribed equilibrium contact angle and is extended to account for dynamic (non-equilibrium) effects. The coupled advective Cahn–Hilliard and modified Navier–Stokes (phase-field) system is solved by using a robust and accurate semi-implicit finite volume method. An extension of the momentum balance equations is also implemented for Herschel–Bulkley (non-Newtonian) fluids. Non-equilibrium-induced two-phase flow problems and dynamic two-phase flows in simple two-dimensional (2-D) and three-dimensional (3-D) geometries are investigated to validate the model and its numerical implementation. Quantitative comparisons are made for cases with analytical solutions. Two-phase flow in an idealized 2-D pore-scale conduit is simulated to demonstrate the viability of the proposed direct numerical simulation approach.     

Hydrogeological investigation of shallow aquifers in an arid data-scarce coastal region (El Daba’a,northwestern Egypt)

Hydrogeological investigations in arid regions are particularly important to support sustainable development. The study area, El Daba’a in northwestern Egypt, faces scarce water resources as a result of reported climate change that particularly affects the southern Mediterranean coast and increases stress on the local groundwater reserves. This change in climate affects the area in terms of drought, over-pumping and unregulated exploration of groundwater for irrigation purposes. The hydrogeological investigation is based on a multidisciplinary data-layer analysis that includes geomorphology, geology, slope, drainage lines, soil type, structural lineaments, subsurface data, stable isotopes, and chemical analyses. The study area contains Pleistocene and middle Miocene marine limestone aquifers. Based on lithology and microfacies analysis, the middle Miocene aquifer is subdivided into two water-bearing zones. The area is affected by sets of faults and anticline folds, and these structures are associated with fractures and joints that increase permeability and facilitate the recharge of groundwater. Stable isotope data indicate that groundwater of both the Pleistocene and middle Miocene aquifers is recharged by modern precipitation. The high salinity values observed in some groundwater wells that tap both aquifers could be attributed to leaching and dissolution processes of marine salts from the aquifers’ marine limestone matrix. In addition, human activities can also contribute to an increase in groundwater salinity. A future water exploration strategy, based on the results from the multidisciplinary data-layer analysis, is proposed for the area. The derived scientific approach is transferable to other arid coastal areas with comparable conditions.     

Urban sprawl: neighbourhood dissatisfaction and urban preferences. Some evidence from Flanders

Early studies suggest that people living in rural neighbourhoods are more satisfied with their residential location than people living in cities. Consequently, most individuals seem to prefer low-density environments to reside in. More recent studies, however, state that rural residents are no more likely to be satisfied with their residential neighbourhood than their urban counterparts. In addition, a considerable, growing part of the population seems to have a clear preference for urban neighbourhoods. The results of our research, conducted in Flanders, Belgium, suggest that urbanites are more satisfied with their neighbourhood than rural residents are. Neighbourhood preferences differ less between urbanites and rural residents. However, there are differences indicating that urbanites have a preference for rural neighbourhoods and rural residents a preference for urban neighbourhoods. In sum, it seems that people, once they have selected their residential location, are not satisfied with the neighbourhood characteristics and tend to develop a preference for a different neighbourhood type. This mismatch can be partly explained by the strongly developed urban sprawl in Flanders, reducing the residential qualities of urban and especially rural environments. Restricting further urban sprawl, with the help of a more active spatial planning policy, seems necessary to increase neighbourhood satisfaction.     

Thermal evolution and shale gas potential estimation of the Wealden and Posidonia Shale in NW‐Germany and the Netherlands: a 3D basin modelling study

Sedimentary basins in NW‐Germany and the Netherlands represent potential targets for shale gas exploration in Europe due to the presence of Cretaceous (Wealden) and Jurassic (Posidonia) marlstones/shales as well as various Carboniferous black shales. In order to assess the regional shale gas prospectivity of this area, a 3D high‐resolution petroleum system model has been compiled and used to reconstruct the source‐rock maturation based on calibrated burial and thermal histories. Different basal heat flow scenarios and accordingly, different high‐resolution scenarios of erosional amount distribution were constructed, incorporating all major uplift events that affected the study area. The model delivers an independent 3D reappraisal of the tectonic and thermal history that controlled the differential geodynamic evolution and provides a high‐resolution image of the maturity distribution and evolution throughout the study area and the different basins. Pressure, temperature and TOC‐dependent gas storage capacity and gas contents of the Posidonia Shale and Wealden were calculated based on experimentally derived Langmuir sorption parameters and newly compiled source‐rock thickness maps indicating shale gas potential of the Lower Saxony Basin, southern Gifhorn Trough and West Netherlands Basin.     

Urban Community Garden Agrodiversity and Cultural Identity in Philadelphia,Pennsylvania, U.S.

Considerable research has examined the social, cultural, economic, and community benefits of urban gardening. Few studies, however, have empirically assessed factors that influence urban community garden agrodiversity or its relationship to these dimensions of gardening. We conducted an interdisciplinary study of agrodiversity and cultural identity, based certain markers of identity, including how people see themselves with respect to race, ethnicity, or place of origin, in community gardens in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. We conducted fifty‐six semistructured interviews with gardeners with different cultural identities in eight community gardens on their motivations for urban community gardening during 2014. We conducted plant inventories of the corresponding garden plots and found 104 cultivated edible and ornamental species and 28 varieties representing 34 families. We find that although gardens with culturally diverse gardeners did not have higher species richness, the cultural identity of the gardeners influenced species selection and reason for gardening. Further, the structure, design and species composition of garden plots reflected the identities of garden members. These finding have implications for the recent institutionalization of urban agriculture into city land policies in Philadelphia and other cities in North America.     

PHOTOGRAMMETRIC OBSERVATIONS

In order to be able to predict the accuracy which may be expected from an aerial triangulation adjustment, it is required that the observed quantities (parallaxes and co-ordinates) should be introduced with their proper weight and correlation coefficients. After a review of the present knowledge of these coefficients for the usual photogrammetric observations, the conclusion is reached that this knowledge is inadequate for the purpose. Further research in this field is recommended.