遵义市2009/2010年秋冬春连旱事实及形成原因初析

2009年秋季到2010年初春,遵义市出现了特大干旱,对农业、林业、人畜饮水、水利电力等方面造成严重的危害和巨大的损失。详细分析干旱期间的气象要素,从秋季9月到初春3月的总降水量不足常年同期平均值的一半,并与历史上的秋冬干旱年份进行了比较,发现本次干旱期间遵义市大部分地方降水量等多项气象要素突破历史最少记录,因此认为2...     

甘肃小陇山林区甘肃鼢鼠危害面积的气象预测预报技术研究

甘肃小陇山林区位于我国四大自然植被区系（华北、华中、喜马拉雅、蒙新）交汇处的温带向亚热带过渡带,林业植物种类繁多、茂密,但区内地形、地貌复杂,气候差异大,林业生物灾害频繁,环境气候条件是其发生发展的主要制约因素。为此,进行区内林业生物灾害的气象预测预报技术研究,对林业有害生物灾害的预防、防治和林业产业发展具有显著的指导...     

Assessing vegetation dynamics and their relationships with climatic variability in Heilongjiang province, northeast China

In this study, the vegetation dynamics in Heilongjiang province and their relationships with climate variability were assessed using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and meteorological datasets from 1981 to 2003. The conclusions from our results are as follows: (1) After 1981, vegetation cover, as indicated by the NDVI, exhibited an insignificant increasing tendency. However, the inter-annual variations of the NDVI showed apparent spatial differentiations. (2) The inter-annual changes of the NDVI were different from season to season. The spring and autumn NDVI values increased, while the summer and winter NDVI decreased. (3) The annual NDVI was significantly correlated with precipitation. Thus, as compared to temperature, precipitation was the dominant climatic factor affecting the vegetation dynamics in Heilongjiang province. (4) The trend in the NDVI showed a marked homogeneity corresponding to regional and seasonal variations in climate. Additionally, land use changes also play an important role in influencing the NDVI trends over some regions. All of these findings will enrich our knowledge of the natural forces that impact the stability of boreal ecosystems and provide a scientific basis for the environmental management in Heilongjiang province in response to climate change and human activities.     

Investigating soil thermodynamic parameters of the active layer on the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The soil thermodynamic parameters, including thermal conductivity, diffusivity and volumetric capacity within the active layer on the northern Tibetan Plateau, were calculated using the measured data of soil temperature gradient, heat flux, and moisture at four stations from October 2003 to September 2004. The results showed that the soil thermodynamic parameters exhibited clear seasonal fluctuation. The thermal conductivity and diffusivity in summer and autumn at Beiluhe, Kexinling, and Tongtianhe were larger than those in winter. The volumetric thermal capacity causes an opposite change; it was larger in autumn and winter than in summer. In spring, the soil thermal conductivity at the Kekexili station was larger than that in summer. Generally, fine-grained soils and lower saturation degrees in the topsoil might be a reason for the lower soil thermal conductivity in winter. For a given soil, soil moisture was the main factor influencing the thermodynamic parameters. The unfrozen water content that existed in frozen soils greatly affected the soil thermal conductivity, whose contribution rate was estimated to be 55 %. The thermodynamic parameters of frozen soils could be expressed as a function of soil temperature, volumetric ice content and soil salinity, while for the unfrozen ground the soil moisture content is the dominant factor for those thermal parameters. As for the soil thermal diffusivity, there exists a critical value of soil moisture content. When the soil moisture content becomes less than a critical value, the soil thermal diffusivity increases as the soil moisture content rises.     

The calculation of mine water yield using the non-continuous flow theory

Large amounts of groundwater are discharged during underground mining operations. As a result, the drawdown of groundwater, known as aquifer dewatering, is common in mining areas. Because of variability in permeability between different media in mines, mine drainage occurs primarily as non-continuous flow. However, calculations of mine water yield are usually made based on the continuous flow theory, and therefore often produce erroneous results. This study predicts the water yield of a mine using the module MODFLOW and incorporating the non-continuous flow theory into the calculation. Using this method, the predicted water yield of a mine was approximately 50 % lower than that predicted using the continuous flow theory. The model also demonstrates that the rate of mine drainage varies over time; there is initially a decrease in the rate of drainage which gradually approaches a constant value. Double level flow occurs when there is non-continuous flow in continuous media, which can effectively minimize the influence of mine drainage on upper aquifers and relieve the conflict between groundwater supply and drainage in the mining area.     

Spectral Simulation and Conditioning to Local Continuity Trends in Geologic Modeling

Spectral simulation has gained application in building geologic models due to the advantage of better honoring the spatial continuity of petrophysical properties, such as reservoir porosity and shale volume. Distinct from sequential simulation methods, spectral simulation is a global algorithm in the sense that a global density spectrum is calculated once and the inverse Fourier transform is performed on the Fourier coefficient also only once to generate a simulation realization. The generated realizations honor the spatial continuity structure globally over the whole field instead of only within a search neighborhood, as with sequential simulation algorithms. However, the disadvantage of global spectral simulation is that it traditionally cannot account for the local information such as the local continuity trends, which are often observed in reservoirs and hence are important to be accounted for in geologic models. This disadvantage has limited wider application of spectral simulation in building geologic models. In this paper, we present ways of conditioning geologic models to the relevant local information. To account for the local continuity trends, we first scale different frequency components of the original model with local-amplitude spectrum ratios that are specific to the local trend. The sum of these scaled frequency components renders a new model that displays the desired local continuity trend. The implementation details of this new method are discussed and examples are provided to illustrate the algorithm.     

Strength and stability of frictional sliding of gabbro gouge at elevated temperatures

To investigate the strength of frictional sliding and stability of mafic lower crust, we conducted experiments on oven-dried gabbro gouge of 1 mm thick sandwiched between country rock pieces (with gouge inclined 35° to the sample axis) at slip rates of 1.22 × 10^− 3 mm/s and 1.22 × 10^− 4 mm/s and elevated temperatures up to 615 °C. Special attention has been paid to whether transition from velocity weakening to velocity strengthening occurs due to the elevation of temperature.Two series of experiments were conducted with normal stresses of 200 MPa and 300 MPa, respectively. For both normal stresses, the friction strengths are comparable at least up to 510 °C, with no significant weakening effect of increasing temperature. Comparison of our results with Byerlee's rule on a strike slip fault with a specific temperature profile in the Zhangbei region of North China shows that the strength given by experiments are around that given by Byerlee's rule and a little greater in the high temperature range.At 200 MPa normal stress, the steady-state rate dependence a − b shows only positive values, probably still in the “run-in” process where velocity strengthening is a common feature. With a normal stress of 300 MPa, the values of steady-state rate dependence decreases systematically with increasing temperature, and stick-slip occurred at 615 °C. Considering the limited displacement, limited normal stress applied and the effect of normal stress for the temperatures above 420 °C, it is inferred here that velocity weakening may be the typical behaviour at higher normal stress for temperature above 420 °C and at least up to 615 °C, which covers most of the temperature range in the lower crust of geologically stable continental interior. For a dry mafic lower crust in cool continental interiors where frictional sliding prevails over plastic flow, unstable slip nucleation may occur to generate earthquakes.