内伶仃岛及其附近海面低层大气的平均结构

本文综合分析了内伶仃岛低空温、风探测资料和海岛及其附近海面大气边界层的平均结构,讨论了海陆环流,并把实测风速廓线与理论计算结果进行了比较。      

青藏高原对亚洲季风平均环流影响的数值试验

利用垂直方向具有９层σ面、水平方向菱形截断波数为１５的全球大气环流谱模式和有、无青藏高原大地形两种情况下１０年积分的模拟结果，研究了青藏高原大地形对亚洲季风平均环流的影响。结果表明：有、无青藏高原大地形，亚洲冬、夏季季风平均环流均存在很大的差异。去除地形，使夏季高层的南亚高压、低层的大陆热低压、副热带高压及冬季的大陆冷高压在位置或强度上发生了改变；地形的有、无决定着冬季东亚大槽的强度；索马里越赤道气流有地形时明显较无地形时强；地形的有无还影响着降水强度和雨带的分布。另外，副热带高压中心及雨带的季节性移动与高原大地形的存在与否亦有很大的关系     

基于审查回归模型的公众气象服务支付意愿影响因素分析——以无锡、武汉和西安为例

采用审查回归模型,分别选取了中国东、中、西部的三个典型城市无锡、武汉和西安,计算了三城市受访者的支付意愿值,并对其影响因素进行了分析。结果表明：（1）支付意愿值与地区经济发展水平直接相关。无锡、武汉和西安受访者的支付意愿分别为21.68,17.15和10.07元/年;（2）年龄越长者,由于其天气知识更丰富、日常消费较节俭,对气象服务的支付意愿越低;（3）文化程度越高者,更能理解和支持气象服务事业,对气象服务的支付意愿越高;（4）月收入变量对气象服务的支付意愿有显著影响,但就不同城市的受访者而言,影响的方向并不一致。     

A STUDY ON VARIABLE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION USING DOPPLER RADAR DATA

With the pros and cons of the traditional optimization and probability pairing methods thoroughly considered, an improved optimal pairing window probability technique is developed using a dynamic relationship between the base reflectivity Z observed by radar and real time precipitation I by rain gauge. Then, the Doppler radar observations of base reflectivity for typhoons Haitang and Matsa in Wenzhou are employed to establish various Z-I relationships, which are subsequently used to estimate hourly precipitation of the two typhoons. Such estimations are calibrated by variational techniques. The results show that there exist significant differences in the Z-I relationships for the typhoons, leading to different typhoon precipitation efficiencies. The typhoon precipitation estimated by applying radar base reflectivity is capable of exhibiting clearly the spiral rain belts and mesoscale cells, and well matches the observed rainfall. Error statistical analyses indicate that the estimated typhoon precipitation is better with variational calibration than the one without. The variational calibration technique is able to maintain the characteristics of the distribution of radar-estimated typhoon precipitation, and to significantly reduce the error of the estimated precipitation in comparison with the observed rainfall.     

Climate change and human activities: a case study in Xinjiang, China

We examined both long-term climate variability and anthropogenic contributions to current climate change for Xinjiang province of northwest China. Xinjiang encompasses several mountain ranges and inter-mountain basins and is comprised of a northern semiarid region and a more arid southern region. Climate over the last three centuries was reconstructed from tree rings and temperature series were calculated for the past 50 years using weather station data. Three major conclusions from these analyses are: (1) Although temperature varied considerably in Xinjiang over the last 200 years, it was non-directional until the last 50 years when a substantial warming trend occurred; (2) The semiarid North Xinjiang was representative of the northern hemisphere climate, while the more arid South Xinjiang resembled the southern hemisphere climate, meanwhile, (3) The entire Xinjiang province captured the global-scale climate signal. We also compared human contributions to global change between North and South Xinjiang, including land cover/land use, population, and greenhouse gas production. For both regions, urban areas acted as heat islands; and large areas of grassland and forest were converted to barren land, especially in North Xinjiang. Additionally, North Xinjiang also showed larger increase in population and greenhouse gas emissions mainly associated with animal production than those in South Xinjiang. Although Xinjiang province is a geographically coupled mountain–basin system, the two regions have distinct climate patterns and anthropogenic activities related to land cover conversion and greenhouse gas production.     

普通黑光灯对稻纵卷叶螟和稻飞虱的诱虫量与气象因子的相关分析

以1991年至2008年广东省恩平市的观测数据,分析了普通黑光灯对稻纵卷叶螟和稻飞虱诱虫量与气象条件的相关性.结果表明:稻纵卷叶螟蛾年总诱量与年总降雨量呈正相关,稻飞虱成虫年诱量与年降雨量呈负相关,稻纵卷叶螟蛾与主要为害的5、6、8月降雨均呈正相关,与7月降雨则呈负相关;稻飞虱与5、7、8月降雨均为负相关,与6月降雨为正相关.此外,热带气旋个数与稻飞虱年诱虫量呈负相关;与稻纵卷叶螟蛾年诱虫量呈正相关.综合分析表明,稻纵卷叶螟蛾与稻飞虱与气象因子比较有较大的差别,对普通黑光灯诱虫量有极大的影响,可间接预测预报两迁飞性害虫的发生量,为准确预测预报两迁害虫为害提供参考.     

华南区域季节性降水的差异分析

运用EOF方法研究华南区域降水时空分布特征,结果表明：（1）华南地区各季节降水在年际和年代际的时间变化上有区域一致性,但有季节性差异,其中春季和秋季在20世纪80年代后降水明显减少,旱年增多;而夏季90年代后降水明显增加,涝年增多;冬季变化则不明显。（2）华南地区各季节降水在空间分布上也有差异,其中春季降水呈现东多西少的分布特征,大值中心位于广西东北部、广东中部及西南沿海。夏季和秋季降水相似,呈南多北少的分布特征,大值中心位于广西沿海和广东西南沿海。冬季降水呈东北多西南少的分布特征,大值中心位于粤北。     

Reanalysis of western Pacific typhoons in 2004 with multi-satellite observations

Summary A pilot tropical cyclone reanalysis project was conducted to construct a reliable, high temporal and spatial resolution tropical cyclone dataset for selected western Pacific typhoons in summer 2004, with the application of the latest satellite observations and a 4-dimensional variational data assimilation method. Primary data used for the reanalysis include SSM/I rain rate, GOES-retrieved upper-level wind, QuikSCAT surface wind, Aqua AIRS/AMSU retrieved temperature and moisture profiles, and JTWC best track data. A regular reanalysis procedure was established and up to 12 western Pacific typhoons have been reanalyzed. The reanalysis period covers the entire life cycle of a tropical cyclone, from a few days prior to its genesis to its final decay stage. A preliminary analysis shows that the reanalysis product significantly improves typhoon intensity, structure, and track, compared to the NCEP operational final analysis. The validation of the TC structure against independent observations shows that the reanalysis reproduces well the asymmetric characteristics of TC rain bands and cloud bands. A further modeling experiment with an initial condition from the reanalysis product reveals a significant improvement in typhoon intensity forecast compared to a parallel experiment with an initial condition from the NCEP final analysis, which provides a further indication of quality of the tropical cyclone reanalysis. The reanalysis product and the raw observational data will soon be posted on the data server of the IPRC Asia-Pacific Data-Research Center () for public use.     

长江下游仪征河段汊道分流属性及航道滩槽演变机制

长江下游仪征河段处于枯季潮流界的上边界,揭示其汊道分流属性及滩槽联动演变机制,对河势控制工程及深水航道工程实践具有重要意义.本研究收集了1955—2021年水文泥沙及地形等资料,在汊道分流关系及调整成因上:世业洲右汊的分流属性为枯水倾向型汊道,即低流量时期分流比大于高流量时期;1959—2021年期间,世业洲右汊分流比经历了“稳定-下降-上升”的调整过程,上游河段滩槽格局调整及流域来沙减少引起的汊道间不均衡冲刷是分流关系调整的主因;流域流量过程调整、河道崩岸等综合影响引起1959—2017年期间世业洲右汊分流比为减小态势,航道工程实施起到了调控汊道关系的功能,世业洲右汊分流比为增加态势.在滩槽联动演变关系上:仪征河段进口段以展宽为主,世业洲左汊展宽程度大于右汊,左汊河床形态变化与进口段滩槽形态的一致性关系优于右汊,即上游进口段滩槽演变、流域来沙量减少等综合作用会加速了左汊发展;2015年南京以下12.5 m深水航道二期工程建设以来,工程区域淤积且洲体完整性增强,且深槽冲刷及河槽容积增大,表明航道工程已实现汊道分流关系及滩槽调控的功能.