Long-time variation of soil CO2 fluxes at the summit crater of Vulcano (Italy)

Here, we report the first continuous data of geochemical parameters acquired directly from the active summit crater of Vulcano. This approach provides a means to better investigate deep geochemical processes associated with the degassing system of Vulcano Island. In particular, we report on soil CO₂ fluxes from the upper part of Vulcano, a closed-conduit volcano, from September 2007 to October 2010. Large variations in the soil CO₂ and plume SO₂ fluxes (order of magnitude), coinciding with other discontinuous geochemical parameters (CO₂ concentrations in fumarole gas) and physical parameters (increase of shallow seismic activity and fumarole temperatures) have been recorded. The results from this work suggest new prospects for strengthening geochemical monitoring of volcanic activity and for improving the constraints in the construction of a “geochemical model”, this being a necessary condition to better understand the functioning of volcanic systems.     

Performance of “G-Pisa” ring laser gyro at the Virgo site

The ring laser gyroscope ??G-Pisa?? has been taking data inside the Virgo interferometer central area with the aim of performing high sensitivity measurements of rotations in the vertical as well as in the horizontal orientation. We discuss the main characteristics of the instrument, describing its mechanical design and presenting the measured sensitivity limit. By applying a simple effective model for the laser gyroscope, we show that the stability of the sensor above 10?s of integration time is mainly limited by backscattering effects. The horizontal rotation rate signal is also compared with the signals recorded by the Virgo environmental monitoring system and by a biaxial mechanical tiltmeter rigidly fixed on top of the gyrolaser mounting frame.     

Bayesian logistic regression for presence-only data

Presence-only data are referred to situations in which a censoring mechanism acts on a binary response which can be partially observed only with respect to one outcome, usually denoting the presence of an attribute of interest. A typical example is the recording of species presence in ecological surveys. In this work a Bayesian approach to the analysis of presence-only data based on a two levels scheme is presented. A probability law and a case-control design are combined to handle the double source of uncertainty: one due to censoring and the other one due to sampling. In the paper, through the use of a stratified sampling design with non-overlapping strata, a new formulation of the logistic model for presence-only data is proposed. In particular, the logistic regression with linear predictor is considered. Estimation is carried out with a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm with data augmentation, which does not require the a priori knowledge of the population prevalence. The performance of the new algorithm is validated by means of extensive simulation experiments using three scenarios and comparison with optimal benchmarks. An application to data existing in literature is reported in order to discuss the model behaviour in real world situations together with the results of an original study on termites occurrences data.     

Capacity and economic efficiency in small-scale fisheries: Evidence from the Mediterranean Sea

To design an effective capacity management plan for small-scale fisheries one must understand what one is measuring and define its capacity. As recognized by some authors, overcapacity is a problem that generally affects small-scale fisheries just as much as it does other types of fishing. This study aims to estimate fishing capacity, technical efficiency, scale efficiency and capacity utilization in a particular small-scale fishery in the Mediterranean, i.e., the Northwest Sardinian fleet in Italy. A non-parametric approach using a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model was applied to a sample of trawls in order to estimate their economic capacity, and related measurements were taken. The capacity and efficiency with reference to two different alternative scenarios were also calculated.     

Hard coastal-defence structures as habitats for native and exotic rocky-bottom species

The use of hard coastal-defence structures, like breakwaters and seawalls, is rapidly increasing to prevent coastal erosion. We compared low-shore assemblages between wave-protected and wave-exposed habitats on breakwaters along a sandy shore of Tuscany (North-Western Mediterranean). Assemblages were generally characterized by a low diversity of taxa, with space monopolized by Mytilus galloprovincialis and Corallina elongata on the seaward side of breakwaters and by filamentous algae on the landward side. Assemblages in wave-protected habitats were characterized by greater temporal stability than those in exposed habitats and supported non-indigenous macroalgae such as Caulerpa racemosa and Codium fragile ssp. tomentosoides. Hence, the introduction of hard coastal-defence structures in otherwise soft-bottom dominated areas, attracting native and exotic rocky-bottom species, should be of great concern for the conservation of marine biodiversity at local and regional scales and for the management of biological invasions.     

Shoal‐water deltas in high‐accommodation settings: Insights from the lacustrine Valimi Formation (Gulf of Corinth,Greece)

The stratigraphic architecture of shoal‐water deltaic systems developed in low‐accommodation settings is relatively well‐known. In contrast, the features of shoal‐water deltas developed in high‐accommodation settings remain relatively poorly documented, especially when compared with the available data sets for Gilbert‐type deltaic systems developed in the same settings. The lacustrine Valimi Formation (Gulf of Corinth, Greece) provides an opportunity to investigate the facies assemblage and architectural style of shoal‐water deltaic systems developed in high‐accommodation settings. The studied interval accumulated during the Pliocene and Pleistocene and represents part of the early syn‐rift Gulf of Corinth succession. Six facies associations, each described in terms of depositional processes and geometries, have been identified and interpreted to represent a range of proximal to distal deltaic sub‐environments: delta plain, distributary channel, mouth‐bar, delta front, prodelta and open lake. The facies associations and their architectural elements reveal characteristics which are not common in traditionally described shoal‐water deltas. Of note, different facies arrangements are observed in the distributary channels in different sectors of the delta, passing from thick single‐storey channel fills embedded within delta‐plain fines in landward positions, to thin, amalgamated and multi‐storey channels closer to the river mouth. This study proposes a new depositional model for shoal‐water deltas in high‐accommodation settings documenting, for the first time, that shoal‐water delta deposits can form a substantial part of stratigraphic successions that accumulate in these settings. The proposed depositional model provides new criteria for the recognition and interpretation of these deposits; the results of this study have applied significance for reservoir characterization.     

Fine‐grained agglutinated elongate columnar stromatolites: Tieling Formation,ca 1420 Ma,North China

The Mesoproterozoic Tieling Formation, near Jixian, northern China, contains thick beds of vertically branched, laterally elongate, columnar stromatolites. Carbonate mud is the primary component of both the stromatolites and their intervening matrix. Mud abundance is attributed to water column ‘whiting’ precipitation stimulated by cyanobacterial photosynthesis. Neomorphic microspar gives the stromatolites a ‘streaky’ microfabric and small mud flakes are common in the matrix. The columns consist of low‐relief, mainly non‐enveloping, laminae that show erosive truncation and well‐defined repetitive lamination. In plan view, the columns form disjunct elongate ridges <10 cm wide separated by narrow matrix‐filled runnels. The stromatolite surfaces were initially cohesive, rather than rigid, and prone to scour, and are interpreted as current aligned microbial mats that trapped carbonate mud. The pervasive ridge–runnel system suggests scale‐dependent biophysical feedback between: (i) carbonate mud supply; (ii) current duration, strength and direction; and (iii) growth and trapping by prolific mat growth. Together, these factors determined the size, morphology and arrangement of the stromatolite columns and their laminae, as well as their branching patterns, alignment and ridge–runnel spacing. Ridge–runnel surfaces resemble ripple mark patterns, but whether currents were parallel and/or normal to stromatolite alignment remains unclear. The formation and preservation of Tieling columns required plentiful supply of carbonate mud, mat‐building microbes well‐adapted to cope with this abundant sediment, and absence of both significant early lithification and bioturbation. These factors were time limited, and Tieling stromatolites closely resemble coeval examples in the Belt‐Purcell Supergroup of Laurentia. The dynamic interactions between mat growth, currents and sediment supply that determined the shape of Tieling columns contributed to the morphotypical diversity that characterizes mid–late Proterozoic branched stromatolites.     

Unpacking some of the linkages between uncertainties in observational data and the simulation of different hydrological processes using the Pitman model in the data scarce Zambezi River basin

The main objective of this study was to use an uncertainty version of a widely used monthly time step, semi-distributed model (the Pitman model) to explore the equifinalities in the way in which the main hydrological processes are simulated and any identifiable linkages with uncertainties in the available observational data. The study area is the Zambezi River basin and 17 gauged sub-basins have been included in the analyses. Unfortunately, it is not generally possible to quantify some of the observational uncertainties in such a data scarce area and mostly we are limited to identifying where these data are clearly deficient (i.e., erroneous or non-representative). The overall conclusion is that the equifinalities in the model are hugely dominant in terms of the uncertainties in the relative occurrence of different runoff generating processes, although water use uncertainties in the semi-arid parts of the basin can contribute to these uncertainties. The identification of landscape features that suggest the occurrence of saturation excess surface runoff provides some information to constrain the model. Improved independent estimates of groundwater recharge is also identified as a key source of observational data that would help a great deal in constraining the model parameter space and therefore reducing some of the model equifinality.     

The Imaclim-R model: infrastructures, technical inertia and the costs of low carbon futures under imperfect foresight

This paper analyzes the transition costs of moving towards a low carbon society when the second-best nature of the economy is accounted for. We emphasize the consequences on mitigation costs of considering the interplay between a) technical systems inertia, including slow infrastructure turnover in transportation and construction; and b) imperfect foresight influencing investment decisions. To this end, the hybrid general equilibrium modeling framework Imaclim-R is employed as it allows for transitory partial adjustments of the economy and captures their impact on the dynamics of economic growth. The modeling exercise quantitatively emphasizes the a) specific risks that the interplay between inertia and imperfect foresight leads to high macroeconomic costs of carbon abatement measures; b) opportunities of co-benefits from climate policies permitted by the correction of sub-optimalities in the reference scenarios. The article draws insights for the framing of future climate architectures by studying the role of measures that act complementarily to carbon pricing in the transport sector. In particular, reallocating public investment towards low-carbon transport infrastructure significantly reduces the overall macroeconomic costs of a given GHG stabilization target and even creates the room for long-term net economic benefits from climate policies.     

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree (Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999–2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two representative climatic periods (1981–2000 and 2081–2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9?days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34?days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments about biological and environmental changes.