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61.
Federico Murrone Fabio Rossi Pierluigi Claps 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(6):483-510
A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the
hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This
latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework,
involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response
to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing
contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of
the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering
the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system
represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by
information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter
parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model
application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins. 相似文献
62.
Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function.
This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients
from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance
model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns
out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of
eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the
2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance
function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields
with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial
interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the
predefined covariance functions are evaluated. 相似文献
63.
64.
65.
We study the importance of the zones of weakness and the pattern of downgoing flow in steady-state models of subducting lithosphere, which interacts mechanically and thermally with the ambient mantle. The non-linear system of governing equations consists of (i) the momentum equation in stream function formulation and (ii) the steady-state heat transfer equation including conduction and advection of heat and dissipation. A finite element method has been applied to this system. We consider the viscosity to be a non-linear function of both the temperature and the stream function. In steady-state two-dimensional (2D) flow, the stream function isolines follow material trajectories. They are used to follow the top of the subducting slab, which because of its possible increase in water content, is assumed to have a lower viscosity. The zone of weakness has been thus obtained in the self-consistent fashion since the stream function as well as the temperature are the output from our modeling and no a priori assumptions about the shape of the bending lithosphere are taken into account. It was shown that several orders decrease of viscosity in the zone of weakness is required to obtain the dip angle of about 45°. If the decrease of viscosity is not sufficient enough, the subducted slab either sinks almost vertically or does not exhibit a plate-like behavior. We have also demonstrated that shear heating can unrealistically increase at the zone of weakness for fast subductions if decrease of viscosity is underestimated. 相似文献
66.
A Modeling Study of the Effects of Anomalous Snow Cover over the Tibetan Plateau upon the South Asian Summer Monsoon 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The effect of anomalous snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau upon the South Asian summer monsoon is investigated by numerical simulations using the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM2) into which gravity wave drag has been introduced. The simulations adopt relatively realistic snow mass forcings based on Scanning Multi-channel Microwave Radiometer (SNINIR) pentad snow depth data. The physical mechanism and spatial structure of the sensitivity of the South Asian early summer monsoon to snow cover anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau are revealed. The main results are summarized as follows. The heavier than normal snow cover over the Plateau can obviously reduce the shortwave radiation absorbed by surface through the albedo effect, which is compensated by weaker upward sensible heat flux associated with colder surface temperature, whereas the effects of snow melting and evaporation are relatively smaller.The anomalies of surface heat fluxes can last until June and become unobvious in July. The decrease of the Plateau surface temperature caused by heavier snow cover reaches its maximum value from late April to early May. The atmospheric cooling in the mid-upper troposphere over the Plateau and its surrounding areas is most obvious in May and can keep a fairly strong intensity in June. In contrast, there is warming to the south of the Plateau in the mid-lower troposphere from April to June with a maximum value in May.The heavier snow cover over the Plateau can reduce the intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon and rainfall to some extent, but this influence is only obvious in early summer and almost disappears in later stages. 相似文献
67.
José M. Carcione Davide Gei Giuliana Rossi Gianni Madrussani 《Geophysical Prospecting》2005,53(6):803-810
We estimate the concentration of gas hydrate and free gas at an area located to the north of the Knipovich Ridge (western Svalbard margin). The method is based on P-wave velocities computed by reflection tomography applied to multicomponent ocean-bottom seismometer data. The tomographic velocity field is fitted to theoretical velocities obtained from a poro-elastic model based on a Biot-type approach (the interaction between the rock frame, gas hydrate and fluid is modelled from first physical principles). We obtain average hydrate concentrations of 7% and maximum free-gas saturations of 0.4% and 9%, depending on the saturation model. 相似文献
68.
Gianluca Iezzi Mario Tribaudino Giancarlo Della Ventura Fabrizio Nestola Fabio Bellatreccia 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2005,32(7):515-523
The synthetic amphibole Na0.95(Li0.95Mg1.05)Mg5Si8O22(OH)2 was studied in situ at high-T, using IR OH-stretching spectroscopy and synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction. At room-T the sample has P21
/m symmetry, as shown by the FTIR spectrum. It shows in the OH region two well-defined and intense absorptions at 3,748 and
3,712 cm−1, respectively, and two minor bands at 3,667 and 3,687 cm−1. The main bands are assigned to the two independent O–H groups in the primitive structure. The two minor bands evidencing
the presence of small amount of vacant A-site (A□0.05). With increasing T, these bands shift continuously and merge into a unique absorption at high temperature. A change as a function of increasing
T is revealed by the evolution of the refined unit-cell parameters, whose trend shows a transition to C2/m at about 320–330°C. The spontaneous scalar strain, fitted with a tricritical 2–6 Landau potential, gives a T
c of 325(10)°C (β parameter = 0.27). Comparison with the second-order P21
/m ⇔ C2/m phase transition at 255°C for synthetic amphibole ANa0.8B(Na0.8Mg1.2)CMg5Si8O22(OH)2 indicates that the substitution of Na with Li at the B-sites strongly affects the thermodynamic character and the T
c of the phase transition. The comparison of LNMSH amphiboles with cummingtonitic ones shows that the high-T thermodynamic behaviour is affected by A-site occupancy. 相似文献
69.
The phase relations of quaternary systems are generally represented by projections onto ternary compositional planes. Such
projections often obscure relationships that would only be evident in a three-dimensional tetrahedral plot. The tetrahedral
plot requires that compositions of the minerals and melts be transformed into Cartesian coordinates. It is shown here how
this transformation is carried out. The application is demonstrated by tetrahedral plots of experimental melt compositions
of partially molten lherzolite. Furthermore, the plot can be used to evaluate whether or not a particular basaltic composition
represents a primary melt. The methods are applicable to any four-component system. 相似文献
70.
Statistical identification of orographic effects in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall
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Regional models of extreme rainfall must address the spatial variability induced by orographic obstacles. However, the proper detection of orographic effects often depends on the availability of a well‐designed rain gauge network. The aim of this study is to investigate a new method for identifying and characterizing the effects of orography on the spatial structure of extreme rainfall at the regional scale, including where rainfall data are lacking or fail to describe rainfall features thoroughly. We analyse the annual maxima of daily rainfall data in the Campania region, an orographically complex region in Southern Italy, and introduce a statistical procedure to identify spatial outliers in a low order statistic (namely the mean). The locations of these outliers are then compared with a pattern of orographic objects that has been a priori identified through the application of an automatic geomorphological procedure. The results show a direct and clear link between a particular set of orographic objects and a local increase in the spatial variability of extreme rainfall. This analysis allowed us to objectively identify areas where orography produces enhanced variability in extreme rainfall. It has direct implications for rain gauge network design criteria and has led to promising developments in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献