Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events in the Himalaya

Recession of high‐mountain glaciers in response to climatic change frequently results in the development of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes. Moraine dam failure is often accompanied by the release of large volumes of water and sediment, termed a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Chukhung Glacier is a small (~3 km²) receding valley glacier in Mt. Everest (Sagarmatha) National Park, Nepal. Unlike many Himalayan glaciers, which possess a thick mantle of supraglacial debris, its surface is relatively clean. The glacier terminus has receded 1.3 km from its maximum Holocene position, and in doing so provided the space for an ice‐contact moraine‐dammed lake to develop. The lake had a maximum volume of 5.5 × 10⁵ m³ and drained as a result of breaching of the terminal moraine. An estimated 1.3 × 10⁵ m³ of material was removed from the terminal moraine during breach development. Numerical dam‐breach modelling, implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, was used to investigate a range of moraine‐dam failure scenarios. Reconstructed outflow peak discharges, including failure via overtopping and piping mechanisms, are in the range 146–2200 m³ s^‐1. Results from two‐dimensional hydrodynamic GLOF modelling indicate that maximum local flow depths may have exceeded 9 m, with maximum flow velocities exceeding 20 m s^‐1 within 700 m of the breach. The floodwaters mobilised a significant amount of material, sourced mostly from the expanding breach, forming a 300 m long and 100 m wide debris fan originating at the breach exit. moraine‐dam. These results also suggest that inundation of the entire floodplain may have been achieved within ten minutes of initial breach development, suggesting that debris fan development was rapid. We discuss the key glaciological and geomorphological factors that have determined the evolution of a hazardous moraine‐dammed lake complex and the subsequent generation of a GLOF and its geomorphological impact. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Nonlinear dynamics of gravity flows in sloping channels

Doklady Earth Sciences -     

Uranium (U) concentration and its genetic significance in the phosphorites of the Paleoproterozoic Bijawar Group of the Lalitpur district,Uttar Pradesh,India

The paper presents the uranium (U) concentration and distribution pattern in the Paleoproterozoic phosphorites of Lalitpur district of Uttar Pradesh. The study of thin sections, SEM and XRD reveal that apatite is the essential phosphate mineral while quartz and feldspars are the dominant gangue in the phosphorites of the investigated area. The collophane is observed to be mostly oolitic in form and microspherulitic in texture. The major element geochemistry indicated that the phosphorite samples are rich in P₂O₅, CaO, SiO₂ and Fe₂O₃ whereas depletion of MgO, MnO, K₂O and Al₂O₃ was observed. The CaO/P₂O₅ ratio ranges from 1.13 to 1.46 which is slightly lower than that of cations and anions substituted francolite (1.621) and close to that of carbonate-fluorapatite (1.318). The trace element geochemistry indicates that the phosphorites of Lalitpur have the significant range of U concentration (1.67 to 129.67 μg/g) which is more than that of Th (0.69 to 0.09 μg/g) among the analysed trace elements in the phosphorite samples of the area. The positive correlation of U with P₂O₅, CaO and U/P₂O₅ indicates a close association of U with phosphate minerals like collophane (apatite), whereas negative correlation of U with SiO₂ and Fe₂O₃ may be due to mutual replacement. The antipathetic relationship of U with Ni may be an indication of high oxidizing conditions, whereas sympathetic relationship of U with K₂O points towards higher alkaline conditions of the basin of deposition during phosphatization. The variable concentration of U and its relationship with significant major and trace elements in most of the phosphorite samples lead one to believe that the deposition of these phosphorites might have taken place in highly alkaline medium during fairly oxidizing to weakly reducing environmental conditions of geosynclinal basin.     

The reduction of aliasing in gravity anomalies and geoid heights using digital terrain data

Observations of gravity can be aliased by virtue of the logistics involved in collecting these data in the field. For instance, gravity measurements are often made in more accessible lowland areas where there are roads and tracks, thus omitting areas of higher relief in between. The gravimetric determination of the geoid requires mean terrain-corrected free-air anomalies; however, anomalies based only on the observations in lowland regions are not necessarily representative of the true mean value over the topography. A five-stage approach is taken that uses a digital elevation model, which provides a more accurate representation of the topography than the gravity observation elevations, to reduce the unrepresentative sampling in the gravity observations. When using this approach with the Australian digital elevation model, the terrain-corrected free-air anomalies generated from the Australian gravity data base change by between 77.075 and −84.335 mgal (−0.193 mgal mean and 2.687 mgal standard deviation). Subsequent gravimetric geoid computations are used to illustrate the effect of aliasing in the Australian gravity data upon the geoid. The difference between 'aliased' and 'non-aliased' gravimetric geoid solutions varies by between 0.732 and −1.816 m (−0.058 m mean and 0.122 m standard deviation). Based on these conceptual arguments and numerical results, it is recommended that supplementary digital elevation information be included during the estimation of mean gravity anomalies prior to the computation of a gravimetric geoid model.     

香港一富营养河港内的底泥耗氧和营养盐释放

Tolo Harbour has received massive discharges of municipal sewage, agricultural wastes and cottage industrial effluents, via three river systems, in the past two decades before the mid Eighties. The Harbour is almost land locked and poorly flushed. The soft sediment acted as a sink for nutrients and organic pollutants. After a decade of efforts in establishing and enforcing water pollution control legislations and upgrading wastewater treatment facilities, the sediments have turned into sources of nutrients and exert a measurable oxygen demand upon the overlying waters. In vitro measurements showed that the sediments oxygen demand (SOD) was between 17.6 and 54.3 mgo₂ · m^-2 · h^-1. The maximum rates of release of ortho-phosphate phosphorus and ammonia nitrogen were 15.0 and 206.0 mg · m^-2 · h^-1, respectively.     

Thermal history of the nakhlites by the40Ar-39Ar method

This paper reports the results of thermal-release argon analyses of neutron-irradiated samples of the two nakhlite meteorites, Lafayette and Nakhla. The initiation of retention of radiogenic⁴⁰Ar in Lafayette appears to have been a reasonably well-defined event which occurred (1.33 ± 0.03) × 10⁹ yr ago, as determined by the⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar method. Nakhla also appears to have been retaining argon no longer than 1.3 × 10⁹ yr, but its gas-retention age cannot be considered well-defined because its apparently most-retentive sites have nominal gas-retention ages shorter than those of the less-retentive sites which contain most of its potassium.     

Drought forecasting through statistical models using standardised precipitation index: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis

Quality and reliable drought prediction is essential for mitigation strategies and planning in disaster-stricken regions globally. Prediction models such as empirical or data-driven models play a fundamental role in forecasting drought. However, selecting a suitable prediction model remains a challenge because of the lack of succinct information available on model performance. Therefore, this review evaluated the best model for drought forecasting and determined which differences if any were present in model performance using standardised precipitation index (SPI). In addition, the most effective combination of the SPI with its respective timescale and lead time was investigated. The effectiveness of data-driven models was analysed using meta-regression analysis by applying a linear mixed model to the coefficient of determination and the root mean square error of the validated model results. Wavelet-transformed neural networks had superior performance with the highest correlation and minimum error. Preprocessing data to eliminate non-stationarity performed substantially better than did the regular artificial neural network (ANN) model. Additionally, the best timescale to calculate the SPI was 24 and 12 months and a lead time of 1–3 months provided the most accurate forecasts. Studies from China and Sicily had the most variation based on geographical location as a random effect; while studies from India rendered consistent results overall. Variation in the result can be attributed to geographical differences, seasonal influence, incorporation of climate indices and author bias. Conclusively, this review recommends use of the wavelet-based ANN (WANN) model to forecast drought indices.

     

EMPLOYMENT DATA AND THE CLASSIFICATION OF URBAN SETTLEMENTS

Classifications of urban settlements have traditionally used total employment data in place of basic (export-oriented) employment data. While urban analysis agree upon the superiority of basic employment data for these classifications, usually only total employment data are available. This paper uses the Arizona Community Data Set, a unique survey-generated body of information that describes the major economic characteristics of numerous Southwestern communities and includes both basic and total employment data, to explore the extent to which misclassification results when using total employment data.     

A generalized transformation approach for simulating steady-state variably-saturated subsurface flow

A numerical method is proposed to accurately and efficiently compute a direct steady-state solution of the nonlinear Richards equation. In the proposed method, the Kirchhoff integral transformation and a complementary transformation are applied to the governing equation in order to separate the nonlinear hyperbolic characteristic from the linear parabolic part. The separation allows the transformed governing equation to be applied to partially- to fully-saturated systems with arbitrary constitutive relations between primary (pressure head) and secondary variables (relative permeability). The transformed governing equation is then discretized with control volume finite difference/finite element approximations, followed by inverse transformation. The approach is compared to analytical and other numerical approaches for variably-saturated flow in 1-D and 3-D domains. The results clearly demonstrate that the approach is not only more computationally efficient but also more accurate than traditional numerical solutions. The approach is also applied to an example flow problem involving a regional-scale variably-saturated heterogeneous system, where the vadose zone is up to 1 km thick. The performance, stability, and effectiveness of the transform approach is exemplified for this complex heterogeneous example, which is typical of many problems encountered in the field. It is shown that computational performance can be enhanced by several orders of magnitude with the described integral transformation approach.